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Ash4781

Nationwide Release (next Friday) Expected 2.0% Yoy

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It's almost impossible for it not to come in April.

I've been disappointed too many times to say it was impossible but I'm hoping that you're correct.

On the NSA figure there were 1.4 and 1.8 percent MoM rises in March and April last year so there would need to be a half percentage point rise over the two months this year to prevent YoY going neg in April.

On the SA MoM, the Nationwide seasonal adjustment has been adjusting prices higher for seven months now but in March and April there's a big turnaround and they'll be taking around a percentage point off each month in both these months. If the spring bounce fails and the real figures continue as they have over winter then there should be some juice MoM headline figures coming up...

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I've been disappointed too many times to say it was impossible but I'm hoping that you're correct.

On the NSA figure there were 1.4 and 1.8 percent MoM rises in March and April last year so there would need to be a half percentage point rise over the two months this year to prevent YoY going neg in April.

On the SA MoM, the Nationwide seasonal adjustment has been adjusting prices higher for seven months now but in March and April there's a big turnaround and they'll be taking around a percentage point off each month in both these months. If the spring bounce fails and the real figures continue as they have over winter then there should be some juice MoM headline figures coming up...

:lol: I recken they'll take thier lead from Brown and fudge the figures, no more seasonal adjustment; they'll call it "Credit Crunch Adjustment" and just use '05 numbers instead. :ph34r::P

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:lol: I recken they'll take thier lead from Brown and fudge the figures, no more seasonal adjustment; they'll call it "Credit Crunch Adjustment" and just use '05 numbers instead. :ph34r::P

"We've adjusted the figures over the business cycle so that they do not break the golden rule of always going up."

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with real cpi inflation at about 8-10% min, I would agree with that 2% figure yoy. ;)

Real CPI is the CPI figure.

Real Inflation expereinced by most people is not the same as the CPI figure.

Is a CPI figure a good measure of inflation for anyone int the UK? No I dobt it and certainly not the average person.

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I've been disappointed too many times to say it was impossible but I'm hoping that you're correct.

On the NSA figure there were 1.4 and 1.8 percent MoM rises in March and April last year so there would need to be a half percentage point rise over the two months this year to prevent YoY going neg in April.

On the SA MoM, the Nationwide seasonal adjustment has been adjusting prices higher for seven months now but in March and April there's a big turnaround and they'll be taking around a percentage point off each month in both these months. If the spring bounce fails and the real figures continue as they have over winter then there should be some juice MoM headline figures coming up...

I have projected it here: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...st&p=993682

		Unadjusted	 Adjusted	 YoY	 MoM	Feb-08	£179,358	£182,115	 2.7%	-0.5%	Mar-08	£178,500	£179,612	 0.8%	-1.4%	(projected)Apr-08	£178,000	£177,258	-1.3%	-1.3%	(projected)
Edited by refusnik

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:lol: I recken they'll take thier lead from Brown and fudge the figures, no more seasonal adjustment; they'll call it "Credit Crunch Adjustment" and just use '05 numbers instead. :ph34r::P

Yes, I have noticed that in the BRICKS & MORTER supplement in the TIMES that awfull ANN ASHWORTH does that.

She shows a different town every week and illustrates how prices have changed. I could swear that for years she has been showing the 'price change' on for instance LUTON over the last 3 months. Now I notice she has changed to the last 1 or 2 years instead. Very clever.

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Whilst a fifth straight month of falling prices will be welcome I cant believe that the reality is a mere 0.5% fall. I mean RICS say that prices are falling as fast as they ever were in the early 90s. Add NW seasonal adjusts and it ought to be more like - 1 or 2% - not that they'd admit it of course. Oh well - looks like Ill have to wait until April before I can dance outside the EAs offices ( not the wifes of course !)

Out of interest - anyone know how come the Haliwide seem to understate price falls ? On top of the RICS data I have read EAs saying London prices are down 10% - we just bought a place for my father in law at 20% down (S.E) - new build city centre flats are down upto 50% - Northern Ireland is collapsing - so we ought to be showing some pretty juicy YOY drops already. I believe the official Haliwdie data understated the 90s crash too.

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"We've adjusted the figures over the business cycle so that they do not break the golden rule of always going up."

Makes sense to me. :lol:

Unfortunately it's too true to be funny. :(

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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