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House Prices Fall 'won't Help First-time Buyers'

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Homeowners and those hoping to step onto the property ladder have both been dealt a blow after a senior Bank of England policymaker warned that house prices will fall but the impact of the credit crunch means affordability won't improve.

Policymaker Kate Barker warns that falling house prices won't improve affordability
********, it will just not yet, in the long term it will oh kate what are you talking about. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...bcnhouse120.xml

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********, it will just not yet, in the long term it will oh kate what are you talking about. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...bcnhouse120.xml

On the other hand, if prices were to continue to rise at recent rates FTB's would all be dancing celebrating in the street of course at the same time as signing their lives away to a 15x salary mortage for that bedsit in sh*teholeville.

How thick are these people?!

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those hoping to step onto the property ladder
they have a better chance in 5 years than they have now, kate do you really think the banks will stop all credit forever?

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Policymaker Kate Barker warns that falling house prices won't improve affordability

It makes you wonder which planet these VIs are from. It's infuriating, whether stupidity or propoganda is the cause. How patronising that these people assume the sheeple don't look past the next few months.... oh, wait....

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"Policymaker Kate Barker warns that falling house prices won't improve affordability"

Kate is almost correct... but she makes several errors of judgement.

1. She assumes that all first time buyers need substantial mortgages. (Most do, but not all.)

2. She assumes that cheaper houses will all be bought by BTL as investments. (Some will, but BTL is riskier than OO as tenants can be fickle with increased supply of rental properties.)

3. She assumes that affordability for first time buyers is assessed by them on a short-term basis as opposed to a decision about ability to repay the principle. (Which has been the case in the boom - because the prudent have excluded themselves from the market.)

Affordability won't magically improve. This is why the prices are entering a downwards spiral.

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First time buyers, the only fish in the sea not dead

Less than four years on images of the Boxing day Tsunami still manage to leave you horrified and powerless in equal measures. When the inevitable documentaries and films followed, perhaps the most eerie sequence in the whole catastrophic event was the apparent 'vacuum' before the wave hit. A unique phenomena, the sea actually appears to recede before arriving at the shores with such devastating effects. It's known as the trough or draw-back. There were anecdotes of tourists attempting to pick up fish and sea life as the sea rushed out, being totally unaware of the savagery of what was about to unfold...

http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid...&cat=65-0-0

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"Policymaker Kate Barker warns that falling house prices won't improve affordability"

Kate is almost correct... but she makes several errors of judgement.

2. She assumes that cheaper houses will all be bought by BTL as investments. (Some will, but BTL is riskier than OO as tenants can be fickle with increased supply of rental properties.)

Well the way things are going i dont think we'll ever see CDOs again so it'll be much harder for property developers to re enter the market, specially when so many will become bust.

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Well the way things are going i dont think we'll ever see CDOs again so it'll be much harder for property developers to re enter the market, specially when so many will become bust.

You misunderstand. There are quite a lot of over 50/over 60s with cash savings who are worried about inflation. If traditional FTB properties can be had for, say £20K to £40K but there are no mortgages, the traditional FTB still can't buy... but the prudent soon-to-retire can likely buy up entire streets without any leverage.

N.B. This is an extreme case to illustrate a point - not a prediction.

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These VIs arnt thick in the classic sense of the word (im sure many have A levels and degrees), but they seem to show a lack of emotional intelligence in that they think that what they say will be believed by others, depite it being totally incredulous and often contradictory.

This to me says a lot about the sort of people they deal with on a daily basis, in so far as they obviously think that their lies will be believed by the broader public. It suggests that they are used to dealing with the sort of people who simply believe what they are told from 'experts'. It also suggests to me that they simply believe what they are told. In other words they are just sheeple, albeit sheeple higher up the food chain.

Also ive noticed many of these VIs have what Roger Penrose calls a belief engine brain. Ie the come to a conclusion and then gather information to support their view. Rational thinkers on the other hand look at the evidence and then draw their conclusion. Belief engine brains are classic sheeple territory.

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These VIs arnt thick in the classic sense of the word (im sure many have A levels and degrees), but they seem to show a lack of emotional intelligence in that they think that what they say will be believed by others, depite it being totally incredulous and often contradictory.

This to me says a lot about the sort of people they deal with on a daily basis, in so far as they obviously think that their lies will be believed by the broader public. It suggests that they are used to dealing with the sort of people who simply believe what they are told from 'experts'. It also suggests to me that they simply believe what they are told. In other words they are just sheeple, albeit sheeple higher up the food chain.

Also ive noticed many of these VIs have what Roger Penrose calls a belief engine brain. Ie the come to a conclusion and then gather information to support their view. Rational thinkers on the other hand look at the evidence and then draw their conclusion. Belief engine brains are classic sheeple territory.

i've always been marked down in my essays, always thinking out of the box. People like to hear the current flow, never like to hear about alternatives.

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you must take on board that the return en masse of the FTB signals the death for property as an 'investment' this appears to have so many in the media running scared, wtf will they fill up their property sections with in a 'normalised' housing market? I extend this same rationale to money sites such as: fool, moneynet, moneyfacts etc... who have never offered advice as such, simply minced around talking about 'money'. As an overall subject it's as dead as their business model, which is why they're furiously getting their faces on tv as much as possible atm <_<

Edited by Converted Lurker

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To be fair (and I don't know why the hell I'm defending her!), her comments are taken a bit out of context in the banner headline. She actually says that affordibility wont improve this year. As nowadays, affordibility is taken a measure of the amount people can afford each month, she is probably right.

However, its this ****-eyed policy of lenders dishing out mortgages based on "affordibility, rather than traditional salary multiples" that has got us into this mess in the first place.

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But affordability IS all that matters. Either you can pay the mortgage - in which case you can buy the house - or you CANNOT pay the mortgage, in which case you CANNOT buy the house.

The problem is the way affordability has been defined.

How many people do you know who say "We managed to afford to buy because we gave up COMPLTELY on going out, holidays and everything that makes life worth living." FFS life is for living, not for bricks!

I'm sorry, you couldn't afford to buy; you can however just scrape the money together. Quite different.

Equally, whilst you can afford a 4% mortgage, what about an 8% one? Affordability includes building in some slack for contingencies.

The 3x multiplier is not a magical number invented by God. It is a number that has historically represented affordability.

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The problem is the way affordability has been defined.

How many people do you know who say "We managed to afford to buy because we gave up COMPLTELY on going out, holidays and everything that makes life worth living." FFS life is for living, not for bricks!

I'm sorry, you couldn't afford to buy; you can however just scrape the money together. Quite different.

Equally, whilst you can afford a 4% mortgage, what about an 8% one? Affordability includes building in some slack for contingencies.

The 3x multiplier is not a magical number invented by God. It is a number that has historically represented affordability.

Hallelujah! For once I completely agree with you.

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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