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eric pebble

Evan Davies: House Prices - " - Are We Stupid? - " [yes!]

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"As we sit in the midst of what seems like an historic episode I find myself struck by one question: how can we have let ourselves get into this again?

Didn’t we know this might happen? "

Good and interesting read...

"Yet some of the world’s best paid people lent money secured against inflated house prices, and appear to be surprised that the market is not what it was.

There’s a Homer Simpson quality to the analysis that led us here…you can picture Homer attempting to grab a donut well out of his reach, banging his head, and then repeating the mistake time after time. That’s where we appear to be in the housing market. "

LOVE IT!!! :P:P

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/evandavis/

Edited by eric pebble

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Who would have thought eh? A house price bubble leading to a house price crash. What a surprise!

I guess the only real surprise this time is just how much exposure the global banking system seems to have. The smartest guys in the room... :lol:

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Who would have thought eh? A house price bubble leading to a house price crash. What a surprise!

I guess the only real surprise this time is just how much exposure the global banking system seems to have. The smartest guys in the room... :lol:

You get a Maths Degree, then a job in the city. You have no life experience whatsoever, then in your nice new city office, the team tells you haw the market has behaved, and get you to model it in maths.

You submit your model, they make it into a spreadsheet, and look- we cant lose- the maths prove it all.!

So cloistered are these people, all highly paid and in working in an environment of greed- no wonder they didnt see it coming.

Too specialised. too Trained. Too Blinkered. Too well paid. No life experience.

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An enjoyable read, and a good last blog before he starts presenting the Today programme. Many are commenting on the 'fear and greed' cycle which I find interesting.

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A good article - interesting slant on human behaviour.

I would go further and say that we act rationally when presented with rational choices.

However, when we cannot see what decision is the correct, rational one

(when the market starts to tumble and we can't tell how far it will fall)

then our emotions take over and fear might sell or bouyant optimism

might "hold", either of which might well be "right" or "wrong", but we

have no information on which to make a rational decision as we cannot

see the future, so we act emotionally or "by instinct" - or just make a wild

guess based on certain past facts.

Further, the worst of scenarios is to be presented with what appear

to be two choices, each of which appear to be "right" (either practically

or morally").

It is in such circumstances (particularly the moral arena) that people

have emotional or mental breakdowns, trying to reconcile seemingly

irreconcilable opposites.

Interesting stuff.

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Guest Steve Cook

I remememebr Evan Davies, only a year ago, saying that house prices would not crash. The worst we could expect would be a softening of the market.

He later changed that to a possibility of a 5% correction

He just sounds like a growing number of other "commentators" making sure he has jumped aboard the bandwagon of the "new reality" so that he can turn round in six months time and say "well, I did say this was going to happen....."

Yeah right....

B*llocks

Edited by Steve Cook

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I wonder how soon it will be before someone in the mainstream press points us (hpc) out and actually says that we called it right?

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I remememebr Evan Davies, only a year ago, saying that house pricves would not crash. The worst we could expect would be a softening of the market.

He just sounds like a growing number of other "commentators" making sure he has jumped aboard the bandwagon of the "new reality" so that he can turn round in six months time and say "well, I did say this was going to happen.....

B*llocks

Evan is likable but he's basically opinionless. A weather forecast by Evan Davis would see you leaving the house in Bermuda shorts and a trenchcoat.

Edited by Paddles

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Evan is likable but he's basically opinionless. A weather forecast by Evan Davis would see you leaving the house in Bermuda shorts and a trenchcoat.

Good one Paddles -- Like it v much!! :(:lol::P

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I remememebr Evan Davies, only a year ago, saying that house prices would not crash. The worst we could expect would be a softening of the market.

He later changed that to a possibility of a 5% correction

He just sounds like a growing number of other "commentators" making sure he has jumped aboard the bandwagon of the "new reality" so that he can turn round in six months time and say "well, I did say this was going to happen....."

Yeah right....

B*llocks

I couldn't agree more. Evans has been sitting on the fence for so long he's probably got splinters up his @rse.

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Guest Steve Cook
I couldn't agree more. Evans has been sitting on the fence for so long he's probably got splinters up his @rse.

I don't think that's the only type of object he entertains up there..... :lol:

sorry.....cheap joke

made me laugh though.... :lol:

Edited by Steve Cook

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He just sounds like a growing number of other "commentators" making sure he has jumped aboard the bandwagon of the "new reality" so that he can turn round in six months time and say "well, I did say this was going to happen....."

Very true - nobody wants to be caught standing when the music stops.

One of the greatest anecdotals is the front page of www.housepricecrash.co.uk. I hadn't been there in a while (normally go straight for the newsblog and then forum) but checked it recently. In the space of six months, if that, the "House Price Predictions" area has gone from a sea of blue up arrows with I think one red down arrow (Jonathan Davis) to a vast majority of red arrows.

Regards,

Q

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I reckon there's about 50 of us HPCers trying to post comments on his Blog at the moment; I can't get the form to work!

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"As we sit in the midst of what seems like an historic episode I find myself struck by one question: how can we have let ourselves get into this again?

Didn’t we know this might happen? "

Good and interesting read...

"Yet some of the world’s best paid people lent money secured against inflated house prices, and appear to be surprised that the market is not what it was.

There’s a Homer Simpson quality to the analysis that led us here…you can picture Homer attempting to grab a donut well out of his reach, banging his head, and then repeating the mistake time after time. That’s where we appear to be in the housing market. "

LOVE IT!!! :P:P

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/evandavis/

I think Evan Davis is one of the few (maybe Jeff Randall also) to have spotted the House Price Bubble and the probability of a subsequent crash.

I think he's wanted to come out and say it more explicitally, but as his previous role as an Economics Editor meant he needed to be more balanced in my view.

Check the link from youtube. Originally from July 2007.

It must have been posted here before, due to one of those interviewd ;)http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=s04r05zZCZs

"Be prepared, because House Prices can certainly fall, as well as rise".

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4. At 12:38 PM on 19 Mar 2008, Liam Godfrey wrote:

Have we really let the same happen again or are we in danger of creating a self-fulfilling prophecy? This is not necessarily the late 80s, employment is still high and interest rates are still low. House price rises are slowing certainly and may even have a period of nil growth similar to the mid 90s but a crash? perhaps we are being a little premature.

And no I am not an estate agent.

Mortgage broker? Developer?

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Guest Steve Cook
I think Evan Davis is one of the few (maybe Jeff Randall also) to have spotted the House Price Bubble and the probability of a subsequent crash.

I think he's wanted to come out and say it more explicitally, but as his previous role as an Economics Editor meant he needed to be more balanced in my view.

Check the link from youtube. Originally from July 2007.

It must have been posted here before, due to one of those interviewd ;)http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=s04r05zZCZs

"Be prepared, because House Prices can certainly fall, as well as rise".

Well...if that's true, then my respect for him is somewhat restored....

Edited by Steve Cook

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I think Evan Davis is one of the few (maybe Jeff Randall also) to have spotted the House Price Bubble and the probability of a subsequent crash.

I think he's wanted to come out and say it more explicitally, but as his previous role as an Economics Editor meant he needed to be more balanced in my view.

Check the link from youtube. Originally from July 2007.

It must have been posted here before, due to one of those interviewd ;)http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=s04r05zZCZs

"Be prepared, because House Prices can certainly fall, as well as rise".

...and night can follow day, as well as day can follow night. <_<

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We buy, we sell.

We estimate, we guess.

Some get lucky, most don't.

A very few get rich, the vast majority don't.

Life goes on.

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Guest Steve Cook
I think Evan Davis is one of the few (maybe Jeff Randall also) to have spotted the House Price Bubble and the probability of a subsequent crash.

I think he's wanted to come out and say it more explicitally, but as his previous role as an Economics Editor meant he needed to be more balanced in my view.

On the other hand, your comment about him needing to sound more balanced is something of a misnomer. I think you mean, he was required to pump out a message that maintained the staus quo. Not quite the same thing.

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Well...if that's true, then my respect for him is somewhat restored....

I'll correct my post. I think its from July 2006 rather than 07.

It's all very obvious that prices go down as well as up, but for most people, including many so called experts, house prices "only ever go up".

At least a respected independent journalist stuck his neck out and told the truth way before there was even a sniff of it elsewhere in the media.

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I reckon there's about 50 of us HPCers trying to post comments on his Blog at the moment; I can't get the form to work!

Trying to post this on there at the mo:

Evan, all the best in your new job, one on which I am sure you will thrive ( I hope you are not taking over from John Humphreys, having met the chap, A kinder gentleman you could not meet).

As for your above article, I fully concur. Unfortunately, I fully cuncurred back in 2005 when it was becoming blatantly obvious that the housing market was out of control. On Websites such as housepricecrash, singingpig and *********************, the debate raged. Those bearish individuals were labelled "loons", "Crackpots", "doom-mongers" by some, and much worse by others that should have recognised things were out of control. These sites predicted Nigh on 2 years ago balooning gold prices, the collapse of the credit market, increased inflation and other significant financial events which have since come to light. Why were the warnings not heeded? Why was M4 allowed to soar to these unheard-of levels? I tell you why. Because as long as individuals and the banks were making money and individuals were deeply lining their own pockets and ramping the market through the use of their positions in the media (Kirstie and Phil spring to mind) everyone was happy. Its not as if RICs Nationwide, even the government we going to say, "No, stop borrowing, stop using our services, its all going to end horribly!"

The Government, ultimately is to blame. Lax lending criteria, "Liar Loans" (self-cert), lack of price controls all benefitted the governments expansionist policy, funding GDP growth with borrowing (if debt is taken out of the economy, we have been in recession since 2002), should have been regulated by the FSA, who, ultimately report back to the government, as their "employer".

Even looking to the moralistic standpoint...It wasnt as if the Labour government were setting the best example through their own deficit pumping policies.

The result? A 30% MINIMUM fall in the value of UK property as an average, before inflation is taken into account. Nasty, Nasty recession. Lots of unemployment. Oh, Back in 1990, we had inflation to take care of paying off much of the debt; we had North sea oil reserves. This time round, we simply will not have that luxury. To cap it all off, we have a higher % of personal debt when compared to GDP than America, so you can guarantee whatever is happening there will happen here, but far worse.

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  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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