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EmpiricalBear

Its Going To Be Big

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Gut feel here.

Outside London and commutable areas/hotspots, the housing market was already slow in early 2007. Some segments can be seen to be nursing small falls.

Before the credit crunch, things were already slowing and sticky in many areas.

Now its very clear that in the last two weeks credit availability is being pulled very fast by banks and mortage companies.

The RICs figures show some of the worst figures on record... *before* the credit availability started to 'crash'

The approvals figures have been very weak post Northern Rock, a period I shall call 'The Phoney War' because nothing serious had yet changed in credit availability.

--->

Now consider what would have happened if the current crash in mortgage availability had been delayed until after this years spring bounce... Most likely there would have been another standoff into the next year.

--->

So the timing of the 'real' credit crunch in terms of mortgage availability has come at a most significant moment before the yearly spring 'bounce'

I think its a trigger. No sh1t sherlock many of you will say. But I'm still impressed that we have actual, real, measurable change happening now rather than opinion.

An acid test for me will be if I can experimentally obtain a self-cert mortgage which I will attempt later today to see just how bad things are getting.

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An acid test for me will be if I can experimentally obtain a self-cert mortgage which I will attempt later today to see just how bad things are getting.

I will be VERY interested to learn how that goes.

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An acid test for me will be if I can experimentally obtain a self-cert mortgage which I will attempt later today to see just how bad things are getting.

If a 2 metre bear came into my office asking for money I wouldn't argue.

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Don't forget that if you are refused, it will be a black mark on your credit record.

Not strictly true - there will be a record of the search not the outcome. Its a high number of applications in a 12 month period that causes your rating to drop.

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Don't forget that if you are refused, it will be a black mark on your credit record.

I won't be going through with an application at this point, just finding offers that a mortgage broker recommends. 'Testing the water' to determine affordability that sort of thing... I'd like to know what I can afford in any case as I may see a bargain :P

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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