Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
29929BlackTuesday

Deflation - A Big Hello!

Recommended Posts

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...-deflation.html

"It's time to stop pretending. Deflation is here and it is now. Anyone who sees stagflation or inflation out of what's happening now missing the boat. Let's consider the evidence.

Yield Curve As Of March 16, 2008:

(Graph here - click link for all the info)

Are short term interest rates at 1.16% and falling indicative of stagflation? Certainly not.

Note: That chart is from yesterday, today short term rates are 0.97%

Stagflation theories die on the vine with the above chart. It really is as simple as that. Interest rates are not supposed to fall in periods of stagflation.. However, short term rates at 1% or even .5% do not prove deflation either." etc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...-deflation.html

"It's time to stop pretending. Deflation is here and it is now. Anyone who sees stagflation or inflation out of what's happening now missing the boat. Let's consider the evidence.

Yield Curve As Of March 16, 2008:

(Graph here - click link for all the info)

Are short term interest rates at 1.16% and falling indicative of stagflation? Certainly not.

Note: That chart is from yesterday, today short term rates are 0.97%

Stagflation theories die on the vine with the above chart. It really is as simple as that. Interest rates are not supposed to fall in periods of stagflation.. However, short term rates at 1% or even .5% do not prove deflation either." etc.

deflation it is.

But the value of the pound will drop and you will see commodities increase in price.

hold some gold and silver.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...-deflation.html

"It's time to stop pretending. Deflation is here and it is now. Anyone who sees stagflation or inflation out of what's happening now missing the boat. Let's consider the evidence.

Yield Curve As Of March 16, 2008:

(Graph here - click link for all the info)

Are short term interest rates at 1.16% and falling indicative of stagflation? Certainly not.

Note: That chart is from yesterday, today short term rates are 0.97%

Stagflation theories die on the vine with the above chart. It really is as simple as that. Interest rates are not supposed to fall in periods of stagflation.. However, short term rates at 1% or even .5% do not prove deflation either." etc.

WTF

how many times!?!???

can someone please post a link to someone anyone other than Mish that sees deflation?

Mish is equivilent to Jim Cramer - A fooking hysterical mad man with too much time on his hands. The dude has never made a correct call on anything in his life ever! He's a fooking liability without any reliable backing.

I have already explained, this guy is making the ultimate contrarian play there is in the hope of making some money if defaltion actually hits. The truth is, to save the fiat currencies of the world eventually there will HAVE to be deflation, that time is not now - there can be no denying, you would have to be pretty stupid to believe we are in a delationary environment right now, we are staring hard and true at Inflation.

Now - if you deflationists want to be taken seriously please post someone other than MISH.

I could post several articles withing 5 minutes of PROVEN, RELIABLE, RECOGNISED economists (notice the plural) who do not even argue the case for deflation currently, they blatantly say and prove we are in an inflationary environment.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
WTF

how many times!?!???

can someone please post a link to someone anyone other than Mish that sees deflation?

Mish is equivilent to Jim Cramer - A fooking hysterical mad man with too much time on his hands. The dude has never made a correct call on anything in his life ever! He's a fooking liability without any reliable backing.

I have already explained, this guy is making the ultimate contrarian play there is in the hope of making some money if defaltion actually hits. The truth is, to save the fiat currencies of the world eventually there will HAVE to be deflation, that time is not now - there can be no denying, you would have to be pretty stupid to believe we are in a delationary environment right now, we are staring hard and true at Inflation.

Now - if you deflationists want to be taken seriously please post someone other than MISH.

I could post several articles withing 5 minutes of PROVEN, RELIABLE, RECOGNISED economists (notice the plural) who do not even argue the case for deflation currently, they blatantly say and prove we are in an inflationary environment.

Yawn. Yeah, sure you can find lots of stuff about from gold rampers / gold sellers.

Also, you cite quantity, but I could have found you shat loads of "economists" who would have said and say house prices are a winner, property only goes up, new paradigm, etc.

I have been reading Mish for ages. He makes far more sense and has been proven far more correct so far than anyone else.

AND.

He is not trying to sell anything.

He would destroy you too. Try mailing him your cack and watch him tear you a new hole.

The bottom line is that you cannot force companies or individuals to take on more debt when they already have too much AND confidence goes and sentiment changes.

Look at the damage Bernanke has done. Only Mish got that right I am afraid. He beat Bernanke and knew where Bernanke would go wrong before Bernanke even started to slash rates.

Bernanke slashing rates has eroded confidence and damaged sentiment more than anyone would have anticipated. He has caused panic. He did not know this, but Mish did and talked about this years ago. So Bernanke has slashed rates, the Fed rates are lower, but nobody wants to borrow. AND the rates that matter, reflect the new era of sentiment - FEAR.

Bernanke missed all this with his "eureka" moments, thinking he had it all cracked, whilst sitting in countless colleges reading books about previous depressions after previous credit binges.

Events are unfolding pretty much as he (Mish)has said they would. Several prominent inflationists have actually switched to the deflationary camp, as I am sure you are aware.

Edited by BubbleTurbo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Deflation isnt bad - its just that no one is going to be a millionaire out of it.... I guess some people cant live with that.

If deflation is the result, at least the gap between rich and poor is that much closer, and the poor have a fighting chance to compete next time around.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was talking to a colleague today who was in Japan in the 90's and we were comparing the situation there and then with the situation now.

If you think about what the Fed is doing with interest rates, and where asset prices are, the situations are surprisingly similar. The main difference is that Japan has/had the savings ratio to provide the liquidity to hide losses, and the interest rates to ensure loans remained current.

The US, on the other hand, could ensure servicability of loans by reducing interest rates, but would not have the liquidity.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
WTF

how many times!?!???

can someone please post a link to someone anyone other than Mish that sees deflation?

Mish is equivilent to Jim Cramer - A fooking hysterical mad man with too much time on his hands. The dude has never made a correct call on anything in his life ever! He's a fooking liability without any reliable backing.

I have already explained, this guy is making the ultimate contrarian play there is in the hope of making some money if defaltion actually hits. The truth is, to save the fiat currencies of the world eventually there will HAVE to be deflation, that time is not now - there can be no denying, you would have to be pretty stupid to believe we are in a delationary environment right now, we are staring hard and true at Inflation.

Now - if you deflationists want to be taken seriously please post someone other than MISH.

I could post several articles withing 5 minutes of PROVEN, RELIABLE, RECOGNISED economists (notice the plural) who do not even argue the case for deflation currently, they blatantly say and prove we are in an inflationary environment.

why? because commodities are increasing in price? doesn't mean anything. fed is deleveraging. WHen they can deleverage no more we shall see. However, if they wanted to inflate money supply (As opposed to just divert from some assets to commodities) they would've started long before now

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Because goldbugs [inc. me] wont have their day.... £10,000 per oz - crazy stuff tbh.

Whats important is the gold to houseprice ratio, which even in a deflation should hit its long term support line. Goldbugs dont lose out - just wont become millionaires without a hyperinflation.

Edited by notanewmember

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Because goldbugs [inc. me] wont have their day.... £10,000 per oz - crazy stuff tbh.

Whats important is the gold to houseprice ratio, which even in a deflation should hit its long term support line. Goldbugs dont lose out - just wont become millionaires without a hyperinflation.

Fair comment.

Without wanting to start the gold numpties piling in.

To me, gold is currently volatile and has become too speculative. It has little intrinsic value and is subject to many variables and issues as an investment. Sure it is good if you bought in at £500 ish, but at the moment it could be seen as questionable.

Especially when you consider we are in a period of deleveraging and asset sales. . . . .please, narco et al don't start pulling the thread off.

This is just my opinion. We have all heard yours countless times before.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Fair comment.

Without wanting to start the gold numpties piling in.

To me, gold is currently volatile and has become too speculative. It has little intrinsic value and is subject to many variables and issues as an investment. Sure it is good if you bought in at £500 ish, but at the moment it could be seen as questionable.

Especially when you consider we are in a period of deleveraging and asset sales. . . . .please, narco et al don't start pulling the thread off.

This is just my opinion. We have all heard yours countless times before.

Mish Shedlock (the guy who wrote the article in question) is a gold bug himself. Not my words.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...and-silver.html

Gold, unlike the US dollar is not a claim on anyone else's liability. A fiat dollar is merely a claim on resources, and it is a liability of the Fed (while its government bond holdings are its assets). Gold is gold. It is not anyone else's liability. This is also why gold is the ultimate form of payment when everything else fails. One does not need to trust anyone when taking gold in payment. Whereas with all other financial assets you need some counterparty to perform.
Edited by narco

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Deflation...Services, Clothes, Houses, ipods, phones, luxuries and unnecessaries.

Inflation...Fuel, Food, Taxes, Health, Education, necessities.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yawn. Yeah, sure you can find lots of stuff about from gold rampers / gold sellers.

Also, you cite quantity, but I could have found you shat loads of "economists" who would have said and say house prices are a winner, property only goes up, new paradigm, etc.

I have been reading Mish for ages. He makes far more sense and has been proven far more correct so far than anyone else.

AND.

He is not trying to sell anything.

He would destroy you too. Try mailing him your cack and watch him tear you a new hole.

The bottom line is that you cannot force companies or individuals to take on more debt when they already have too much AND confidence goes and sentiment changes.

Look at the damage Bernanke has done. Only Mish got that right I am afraid. He beat Bernanke and knew where Bernanke would go wrong before Bernanke even started to slash rates.

Bernanke slashing rates has eroded confidence and damaged sentiment more than anyone would have anticipated. He has caused panic. He did not know this, but Mish did and talked about this years ago. So Bernanke has slashed rates, the Fed rates are lower, but nobody wants to borrow. AND the rates that matter, reflect the new era of sentiment - FEAR.

Bernanke missed all this with his "eureka" moments, thinking he had it all cracked, whilst sitting in countless colleges reading books about previous depressions after previous credit binges.

Events are unfolding pretty much as he (Mish)has said they would. Several prominent inflationists have actually switched to the deflationary camp, as I am sure you are aware.

No - I said reputable, reliable, PROVEN fund managers/owners that are actually advising their clients and have their own balls on the chopping block regarding how to profit in the coming years. The Inflation/Deflation question affects an investment strategy dramatically.

HmmmMMmmmMmmMmMmm so no-one took the banks 200 billion injection?

No-one wants the 200billion tax break?

No-one wants free money?

No-company wants state backed gurantees to the risks they take?

No-one wants to borrow money at such a low rate, simply holding it another currency could guarantee gains in value?

what fool would say no to that?

Do Not undersestimate the actions or will of central banks.

The answer to the inflation/deflation debate is unravelling fast, IMO - the final nail in the deflation debate will be hammered within the next 18 months and there will be no denying it.

Edited by Impartial

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Mish Shedlock (the guy who wrote the article in question) is a gold bug himself. Not my words.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...and-silver.html

I know his stance on gold. We are not talking about gold. This is what happens all the time on lots of threads here.

We are talking about deflation. Keep gold, kruggerands, bullionvault et al out of it.

Impartial. . . what they gonna do?? Even if they mail out cheques, people will use the money to pay down debts. It will not get back into the real consumerist economy. This is the age old problem. The fed cannot come round peoples houses and lead them out at gunpoint, forcing them to spend any cash they have. Sentiment has gone. .

All they are doing at the moment is attempting to allow an orderly unwind. This is what the TAF, etc is about.

You are right though. We will see. Interesting times :)

Edited by BubbleTurbo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

10 Check gold is in uptrend.

20 IF bank savings interest rate is < increases in personal annual cost of living goto 40

30 If bank savings interest rate is > increases in personal annual cost of living goto 50

40 Increase gold holdings

50 Increase cash holdings

60 Check houseprice to earnings

70 If houseprice to earnings ratio > 3.5x goto 10

80 If houseprice to earnings ratio < 3.5x goto 90

90 Buy a house

100 Check PE ratio of FTSE 100.

110 If PE > 14 goto 10

120 If PE < 14 goto 130

130 Buy stocks

hmm on the drawing board at the moment - no need to worry about deflation/inflation if you follow this.

Edited by notanewmember

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I know his stance on gold. We are not talking about gold. This is what happens all the time on lots of threads here.

We are talking about deflation. Keep gold, kruggerands, bullionvault et al out of it.

Impartial. . . what they gonna do?? Even if they mail out cheques, people will use the money to pay down debts. It will not get back into the real consumerist economy. This is the age old problem. The fed cannot come round peoples houses and lead them out at gunpoint, forcing them to spend any cash they have. Sentiment has gone. .

All they are doing at the moment is attempting to allow an orderly unwind. This is what the TAF, etc is about.

You are right though. We will see. Interesting times :)

Jim sinclair doesn't mince his words.

Inflation is two fold. First it is the expansion of monetary aggregates which always result in price inflation.

Deflation is debt failure first. Debt failure clear of no monetary expansion will reduce prices.

We now have unprecedented monetary inflation on top of price inflation coming from the monetary and fiscal stimulus of 2000 to present.

We are headed to some degree of the Weimar experience, which can be summed up as debt failure, collapse in business activity and an explosive rise in prices for goods and services while a currency collapse took place.

That is a mouthful, but also totally accurate concerning the present situation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
No - I said reputable, reliable, PROVEN fund managers/owners that are actually advising their clients and have their own balls on the chopping block regarding how to profit in the coming years. The Inflation/Deflation question affects an investment strategy dramatically.

HmmmMMmmmMmmMmMmm so no-one took the banks 200 billion injection?

No-one wants the 200billion tax break?

No-one wants free money?

No-company wants state backed gurantees to the risks they take?

No-one wants to borrow money at such a low rate, simply holding it another currency could guarantee gains in value?

what fool would say no to that?

Do Not undersestimate the actions or will of central banks.

The answer to the inflation/deflation debate is unravelling fast, IMO - the final nail in the deflation debate will be hammered within the next 18 months and there will be no denying it.

Since when has a hyperinflation involved IRs crashing to 2.25% or 3-month treasuries crashing to 1%, and what hyperinflation ever started with the implosion of a credit bubble.

Your theory all rests on one thing, actually 2. That every major central bank wants to hyper inflate, and that unlike japan, hong kong, the 30s ect, they are now suddenly competent enough to engineer a deflation without getting themselves all lynched or causing a huge panic and collapse in the treasury market (deflation).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I know his stance on gold. We are not talking about gold. This is what happens all the time on lots of threads here.

We are talking about deflation. Keep gold, kruggerands, bullionvault et al out of it.

Impartial. . . what they gonna do?? Even if they mail out cheques, people will use the money to pay down debts. It will not get back into the real consumerist economy. This is the age old problem. The fed cannot come round peoples houses and lead them out at gunpoint, forcing them to spend any cash they have. Sentiment has gone. .

All they are doing at the moment is attempting to allow an orderly unwind. This is what the TAF, etc is about.

You are right though. We will see. Interesting times :)

it can and DOES tax their money (directly and through inflationary measures) and then spend it FOR them.

the people could use all their checks to pay down debt, but ever time that the money changes hands, the taxes go back to the GVT which spends them into the "consumerist" economy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
No - I said reputable, reliable, PROVEN fund managers/owners that are actually advising their clients and have their own balls on the chopping block regarding how to profit in the coming years. The Inflation/Deflation question affects an investment strategy dramatically.

HmmmMMmmmMmmMmMmm so no-one took the banks 200 billion injection?

No-one wants the 200billion tax break?

No-one wants free money?

No-company wants state backed gurantees to the risks they take?

No-one wants to borrow money at such a low rate, simply holding it another currency could guarantee gains in value?

what fool would say no to that?

Do Not undersestimate the actions or will of central banks.

The answer to the inflation/deflation debate is unravelling fast, IMO - the final nail in the deflation debate will be hammered within the next 18 months and there will be no denying it.

you fall at the first hurdle. the money already exists. the 200bln is not being printed, it is coming from the FED's balance sheet. And no, noone took it becuase it is not available until 27th or so. You should read more outside of jsmineset.com

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Why are anti-deflationists so angry? Like property rampers.

Deflation is pretty obvious really. It's no bad thing - it's just a thing we have to get used to.

People in debt dont want to see the VALUE of their debt increase.

I would be angry if I was in debt too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Skint Academic

I've very interested in the inflation / deflation argument. Some inflationists post how they just can't understand an assumption made by deflationists. I'm perfectly happy to be convinced either way, but I have one question that above all stops me favouring the inflation argument.

How can we get wage inflation in the current environment?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.