Ftse Makes Losses Back Up

[the end is a bit nigher]

I thought both stocks and property prices crashed in the 1930s depression.

Not that old myself so can't remember

Can remember 2001 though, and the 90's - on both occassions property and stocks went in the opposite direction quite sharply

I would still love someone to tell me why they want a SM crash though. If you remember that one of the key reasons given for BTL is that you can't trust the SM as an investment, then surely reinforcing that opinion will encourage more BTL?

Edited March 18, 2008 by the end is nigh

[A.steve]

I would still love someone to tell me why they want a SM crash though.

I'm not so sadistic that I "want" a stock market crash... I am, however, pleased when the stock market declines.

This can be argued to be self-interest, but as I'm passive in this regard, I don't think I'm being unreasonable. The advantages of a stock market crash from my perspective are:

1. Cheaper stocks => more potential for growth from future investment => investment in industry over speculation in housing in the future.

2. I don't own (many) stocks - hence, when stocks crash my cash denominated wealth relative to others increases - which can only help my aspiration to save for retirement and to buy a home.

3. Shadenfreunde that the financial services responsible in a large part for the current mess are getting their comeuppance.

4. The downwards effect on pensions will help to redress the economic balance of power to those who still have productive careers ahead of them - from the over 55s who are currently more economically dominant than at any time in history.

5. It should prompt unwinding of carry trades - hence improving the potential for individual investors to compete with hedge funds without resorting to speculation and gambling.

6. It helps to underline that the economy is not in good shape and that the governments policies are, at least, some part to blame.

7. It dissuades leveraged buyouts by those equipped to manage companies only by their access to finance in favour of those with an flair for the business domain.

8. It reduces future downside risks and is necessary for sound future investment and innovation essential to improving the sum total wealth of society.

[the end is a bit nigher]

4. The downwards effect on pensions will help to redress the economic balance of power to those who still have productive careers ahead of them - from the over 55s who are currently more economically dominant than at any time in history.

I wouldn't disagree with much of what you say, although this point had me wondering. What downward effect do you mean and how do you think it will redress balance?

[bazzzzzzz]

lets hope l get a sell so l can detaut my nutsack.

What?

Edited March 18, 2008 by Baz63

[Daft Boy]

Not that old myself so can't remember

Can remember 2001 though, and the 90's - on both occassions property and stocks went in the opposite direction quite sharply

I would still love someone to tell me why they want a SM crash though. If you remember that one of the key reasons given for BTL is that you can't trust the SM as an investment, then surely reinforcing that opinion will encourage more BTL?

Sorry. Not this time. Its all over. I predict petrol coupons on ration within five years and food coupons on ration within twenty years. Been there before. Still have my ration books. The party is over guys. Get used to it. These are tomorrows good old days. Trust Daft Boy.

[A.steve]

I wouldn't disagree with much of what you say, although this point had me wondering. What downward effect do you mean and how do you think it will redress balance?

Most decent homes are owned by the over 55s (maybe 65s) - with their children left home they retain their family home for sentimental reasons... they are unlikely to sell unless their finances dictate that they must - in spite of no longer depending upon the lots of space; commutable locations etc. I can't blame them - I'd feel exactly the same in their shoes. The expectation is that savings, investments and pensions will provide a near-final salary income, there is little incentive to down-size... hence supporting the upper end of the mainstream housing market through restricted supply.

The younger generations (i.e. under 35s, say) differs from previous generations because they have had far greater restriction on their ability to amass equity (housing or pension investment) - evinced by their greater average debts and the reduced occurrence of owner-occupancy among this demographic... in spite of a tendency towards better qualifications, and - dare I suggest - better paid jobs - than the previous generations. One of my quirks is that I find I find myself in conversations with senior generations more frequently than my peers... Something which never ceases to surprise me when 60+ year olds bemoan their low incomes and increased cost of living but casually admit to owning not only their own home (often "worth" upwards of half a million pounds) but a handful of other houses too... typically two or three - the rent from which (even mortgage free) they are worried won't keep them in the lifestyle to which they've become accustomed - which is not, contrary to popular belief, particularly lavish. They argue that the houses are investments and inheritances for their children... though they seem not to have noticed that their children will likely be retired and/or emigrated before they inherit. Until there is a downturn, the younger generations will not be able to acquire assets at a fair price by their own work and earnings and will become increasingly marginalised.

Those who are set to retire now - on average - seem to be more than comfortably well off... While I'm happy for individuals in this fortunate situation, the lot of the younger generation, on average, suffer as a consequence... not only monetarily, but also in terms of the quality of life which they can achieve during their productive adult life.

Edited March 18, 2008 by A.steve

[bob monkhouse]

Death by a thousand cuts...this keeps happening...the fear will kick in again tommorrow, offering the canny an opportunity today.

(says the man with a virtual account!)

[the end is a bit nigher]

Death by a thousand cuts...this keeps happening...the fear will kick in again tommorrow, offering the canny an opportunity today.

(says the man with a virtual account!)

Bob - remember what I said on Sunday about waiting 2 days to be on the safe side to see if we have had a turn? The same applies in both directions and I notice that in-hours we didn't hold 5,600. I am just watching the futures now expecting a bit of a sell-off again.

[jonewer]

Sure the market is up again but at what cost? Hasnt the fed been forced to empty an entire belt of 150 basis points of ammo into the belly of the beast just to maintain the status quo? How long till the feds' glock go click like a camera?

[bob monkhouse]

Bob - remember what I said on Sunday about waiting 2 days to be on the safe side to see if we have had a turn? The same applies in both directions and I notice that in-hours we didn't hold 5,600. I am just watching the futures now expecting a bit of a sell-off again.

Well you were right, djia priced in 1% cut and only got .75%, already shed some of its gains...

Gold pulled back a bit too...996 now...

Edited March 18, 2008 by bob monkhouse

[the end is a bit nigher]

Well you were right, djia priced in 1% cut and only got .75%, already shed some of its gains...

Gold pulled back a bit too...996 now...

FTSE future slightly decoupled from the DOW cash providing a possible trading opportunity tomorrow - IF the Dow holds current level overnght then I would expect a FTSE assault on the 5,600 level again, probably breaking through - still wouldn't be surprised to see a late sell-off of the Dow tonight though

Just to add that 12,200 seems the pivot at the moment

Edited March 18, 2008 by the end is nigh

[bob monkhouse]

FTSE future slightly decoupled from the DOW cash providing a possible trading opportunity tomorrow - IF the Dow holds current level overnght then I would expect a FTSE assault on the 5,600 level again, probably breaking through - still wouldn't be surprised to see a late sell-off of the Dow tonight though

Just to add that 12,200 seems the pivot at the moment

newb question...how accurate an indicator are the futures??

[A.steve]

newb question...how accurate an indicator are the futures??

Double newb question: What an URL for them?

[the end is a bit nigher]

newb question...how accurate an indicator are the futures??

from my experience they don't tell you much e.g. the daily future will trade maybe 10 pts above or below the daily cash - of it's below then the chances are the market is trending downwards or vice versa - in the event of market changing news the futures will move before the cash - however, we are talking seconds and the chances of using this to make money are remote - out of hours the different futures usually track the markets that are open, although this varies dependent upon which market you are looking at e.g. a small move in asia will have little effect on the u.s. or u.k. futures - a move in the u.s. will move most other markets etc. etc.

[the end is a bit nigher]

Double newb question: What an URL for them?

for the ftse you usually need an account with someone or other to get live futures - if you google the u.s. you should be able to pick up near real-time

[bob monkhouse]

Yeow! What just happened?? All dem red numbers just turned black!

[bob monkhouse]

Volatility can be fun!

Though im just betting on the psychology of the market and riding momentum with pretend cash (Unlike nigh, who is obviously basing his judgements on knowledge, experience and skill!). Can anyone reccomend any good books (or forums) on trading/stocks?

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

No different to any other stock market decilne. The declines get bigger and bigger however with each piece of news. Just watch what happens when the next big bank goes under.

I am tempted to short the FTSE myself at cease play today

in a few days I hope......

if lehmans goes t1ts up as predicted after a 75 points drop then US consumer confidence (or more importantly market confidence) will be shot to pieces imo (although I think the marekt already knows it's days are numbered & I do mean days)

[A.steve]

if lehmans goes t1ts up as predicted after a 75 points drop then US consumer confidence (or more importantly market confidence) will be shot to pieces imo (although I think the marekt already knows it's days are numbered & I do mean days)

Reuters reported today that Lehman's figures were better than expected - about 50% of last quarter's... the same as Goldman Sachs'.

What makes you so sure that Lehman will fail?

[the end is a bit nigher]

Volatility can be fun!

Though im just betting on the psychology of the market and riding momentum with pretend cash (Unlike nigh, who is obviously basing his judgements on knowledge, experience and skill!). Can anyone reccomend any good books (or forums) on trading/stocks?

Too fast for me tonight. Got the fall but it then held and shot through 5,600 all in an hour or so! Plus the IG FTSE spread out of hours is 6 pts which makes trading more dangerous.

[Alistair darlings mole]

Yep. Let the good times roll SPEND SPEND SPEND

Question for the masses. Why has the fed cut rates so much? Cos to me, They are only helping the banks. Yet unemployment will keep on rising.

Edited March 18, 2008 by Alistair darlings mole

[Doctor Gloom]

Sorry. Not this time. Its all over. I predict petrol coupons on ration within five years and food coupons on ration within twenty years. Been there before. Still have my ration books. The party is over guys. Get used to it. These are tomorrows good old days. Trust Daft Boy.

I second the fuel rations, it WILL happen.

Just like the HPC is happening now.

Anyone who BTL's needs their testicles removed with pliers to give an insight into the pain they will go through to be greedy.

[eric pebble]

Anyone who BTL's needs their testicles removed with pliers to give an insight into the pain they will go through to be greedy.

[Nicholas Cage]

FTSE 100 is seesawing it's way to the bottom, 2005 levels are the new low, YTD is negative, quarterly is -11% down (depending on reweighting) and trackers, pensions, investment funds which all reweight and have management costs that do get dividends are all negative. from Lloyds, RBS HBOS Barclays all down quarterly and YTD.

[Guest mSparks]

FTSE 100 is seesawing it's way to the bottom, 2005 levels are the new low, YTD is negative, quarterly is -11% down (depending on reweighting) and trackers, pensions, investment funds which all reweight and have management costs that do get dividends are all negative. from Lloyds, RBS HBOS Barclays all down quarterly and YTD.

markets cant crash when they wont let anyone trade