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bob monkhouse

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Companeros,

I hate smug fcukers, I really do. But allow me to indulge in a little of it it, just this once. For around 3 to 4 years i've been spouting that a large correction is waiting in the wings. I could'nt articulate exactly why at the time, I was still a little naive and brainwashed. As a trainee surveyor, my older colleagues laughed. "what do you know?". The housing market was booming, money was cheap, and many had forgotten the bad times in the early 1990's. Friends I advised not to buy, to save, to invest in certain precious metals [having swotted up on bubbs 2005 reccomendations] and to educate themselves in the workings of the global economy. Even my close family, my mother in particular, ignored my warnings and remortgaged on a 10yr interest only in 2006, despite the fact she earns a pittance and her job is now in the balance [cheers brown].

Its been frustrating. I thought 2005 would prove me correct, but they kept it on track for just a little longer, a few last drinks at the bar. I got a fair bit of stick, and since then have kept my opinions more or less to myself, unless asked. I have to say, there have been times when I questioned whether or not I was right, whether many here were right. As a potential FTB I had that feeling that if i didnt jump in now, it would always lie beyond me (the most dangerous impulse...do you feel it now with gold?). But all it took was a flick through the paper, an eye on the high street and a quick chat with friends...people were stretching themselves...professionals with two incomes struggling to afford a rabbit hutch, sacrificing their freedom to achieve a false aspiration...and yet they were happy, extatic to have beaten the crowd and climbed onto the first rung on the ladder...no, I'm not wrong, this is'nt right, this is mania.

With the knowledge that the housing market is fcuked I moved on [thats soooo 2005], and with the help of discussion and debate both here and on GEI I now have a layman's grasp of economics and, more importantly, understand the basic principles of human behaviour and the herd instinct. Hopefully this will help protect me in the future. Even if it doesnt, at least my eyes are open.

A few months ago I got in a heated discussion with a senior colleague, an old hand who specialises in development and finance with 25 years experience- his argument was that the credit crunch was a blip, that the UK was in rude health and that the undersupply of housing would support the market...you can imagine my responses...again, a lot of the office thought that this young man was crackers...a doom-monger...the cups always half empty (far from it, im very motivated to exploit the next opportunity).

This morning I recieved a text from said fellow;

'You win. The housing market and the economy are truely ******ed'

Guess you shouldnt have bought that house last summer then. I think the main danger to HPC'ers over the next two years, will be death by schadenfreude induced lynchings. I would like to thank all the posters who have contributed to this forum over the last few years. You really have been ahead of the curve.

BM.

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be careful, this smacks of the triumphant spoutings of neil kinnock at the pre election night labour party conference in 92.

which ruined everything, and brought about the nu lab model we see today.

comrades !!

Edited by right_freds_dead

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Guest X-QUORK
I would like to thank all the posters who have contributed to this forum over the last few years. You really have been ahead of the curve.

Seconded.

Good post Bob.

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Ahhh. You give yourself to little credit.

For, we are not passive soothsayers warning of a financial reckoning. NO! We have CREATED this economic crash with our doom-laden views and irreconcilable pessimism. Mwa-hahaha..... MWAAAA- hahahaha..... MWa... you get the picture

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be careful, this smacks of the triumphant spoutings of neil kinnock at the pre election night labour party conference in 92.

which ruined everything, and brought about the nu lab model we see today.

comrades !!

Yes, you could be right. I just felt the need to spout it, as im ill off work today and bored. Its the contra-impulse again. People are agreeing with me, which is a little worring. Maybe its the to buy a house then (and stock up on those cheap financials which are screaming danger!). ;)

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The thing is, it has never worked, it was never going to work, and it never will work. As RB says, a miracle was required to keep it going.

Expect at least two years of "how could we have been so stupid", etc.

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I dont know about schadenfreude but I am already getting fed up with all the media coverage on the credit crunch

and trouble in the financial markets and people complaining about how their mortgage repayments have gone up.

Its everywhere.

BTL not making money any more and repossessions going up . Its early days and we have much worse to come over the next few years and already I am sick of hearing about it. I think I have house crash fatigue.

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I feel the same. I have lost track of the amount of people who have advised me that renting is wasting money and that I should mortgage myself to the hilt, put the little one in nursery and send the other half back to work (against our principles) to get a mortgage asap. After all house prices are going to double soon.

I am a conveyancer for XXXX sake. I do have some sort of knowledge about house prices. When every delivery man, bricklayer and shop assistant is telling me to buy I am not going to listen.

Unfortunately my other half gets it in the ear too and is on at me to buy too.

I feel sorry for those who bought the lies of the last few years but not those who took on dodgy mortgages enabling the bubble to get bigger and bigger. They are the people who have made me rent for the last three years. House prices could have crashed in 2005 and I would be in my house now, planting the garden and decorating. Instead I am renting a house waiting for the inevitable to happen.

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be careful, this smacks of the triumphant spoutings of neil kinnock at the pre election night labour party conference in 92.

which ruined everything, and brought about the nu lab model we see today.

comrades !!

Well Aaaaaaaarrrrrllllll Riiiight.

is how I believe it went. :)

I would like to endorse what the other bob said.

Although, as you say, triumphalism is a dangerous thing. I don't want to be in the position that some people who leave an Inside Track seminar feel themselves to be in, say 3 years ago, believing we have the keys to our own salvation and prosperity.

So I think that the important thing to find out is when will be the time to get back into shares and when will be the time to get back into property.

Shares first I suspect, since they are pretty much the same level as 10 years ago right now and haven't been pumped quite as much over here as houses. Good solid reliable stocks in about 6-9 months.

Houses 5-10 years. Shhh don't tell Mrs Bob, she thinks we are moving next year sometime. :(

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This morning I recieved a text from said fellow;

'You win. The housing market and the economy are truely ******ed'

.

BM.

Your friend deserves to get fvcked if he thought it was a competition :huh:

Edited by Lander

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WONT WE GET PISSED OFF BEING RIGHT ?

i think we like to be going against the grain on here, if everyone who we often call sheeple start agreeing that is quite a worry.

following the view of the crowd is no fun at all

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I feel vindicated too. Have been getting hacked off with people telling me prices only go up and that this bubble is sustainable. I've got a degree in economic history so it bugs me no end when people lecture me on stuff they have no idea about and try to say that house prices falling 'can't happen'.

Problem is we're all going to be affected by what's coming - those of us with small mortgages, and no debts won't be hurt as badly, but that doesn't mean we won't be hurt.

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Well Aaaaaaaarrrrrllllll Riiiight.

is how I believe it went. :)

I would like to endorse what the other bob said.

Although, as you say, triumphalism is a dangerous thing. I don't want to be in the position that some people who leave an Inside Track seminar feel themselves to be in, say 3 years ago, believing we have the keys to our own salvation and prosperity.

So I think that the important thing to find out is when will be the time to get back into shares and when will be the time to get back into property.

Shares first I suspect, since they are pretty much the same level as 10 years ago right now and haven't been pumped quite as much over here as houses. Good solid reliable stocks in about 6-9 months.

Houses 5-10 years. Shhh don't tell Mrs Bob, she thinks we are moving next year sometime. :(

Seconded, im putting away cash at the moment, so the credit crunch has come at a convienient time! If commodities have a shakeout i would reappraise my position...financials would be cheeky too once they start to bottom out (again, a combination of watching, discussing and DYOR there). Luckily Mrs Monkhouse wants to do a wee bit of travelling in the next year or two, so no housey buying for me for a while yet...(I can just feel the uber bears tutting...'holidays??? you should be stocking up on tin foil!') ;)

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WONT WE GET PISSED OFF BEING RIGHT ?

i think we like to be going against the grain on here, if everyone who we often call sheeple start agreeing that is quite a worry.

following the view of the crowd is no fun at all

Don't forget, we are still ahead of the curve. People are maybe thinking, OK, this is back to the eighties... some smarter people may even be looking back to the 70's. But there aren't many at all, who are thinking it's as bad or worse than the '30's!!! theere is still alot of uncertainty out there.

People are coming round to a few banks being nationalised here and there. that's it. Oh, and it's a bit harder to get a mortgage at the moment. Howevere, I truly believe that for most people the implications - even after the wonderful 15-minute bit on r4 this morning - that it will somehow sweep past them, and in 12 months everything will be hunky dory again.

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be careful, this smacks of the triumphant spoutings of neil kinnock at the pre election night labour party conference in 92.

which ruined everything, and brought about the nu lab model we see today.

comrades !!

I`m no expert in economics and I don`t even own my own house (Thank God now!), BUT this forum is a gem in the sea of digital cr*p known as the Internet.

Just about everything from complex economic models to basic psychology have been covered here.

Also, it`s damn good fun! (Especially when Krusty Allsopp gets annoyed at all the naughty postings here!) :lol:

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Don't forget, we are still ahead of the curve. People are maybe thinking, OK, this is back to the eighties... some smarter people may even be looking back to the 70's. But there aren't many at all, who are thinking it's as bad or worse than the '30's!!! theere is still alot of uncertainty out there.

People are coming round to a few banks being nationalised here and there. that's it. Oh, and it's a bit harder to get a mortgage at the moment. Howevere, I truly believe that for most people the implications - even after the wonderful 15-minute bit on r4 this morning - that it will somehow sweep past them, and in 12 months everything will be hunky dory again.

Indeed - terraced houses in slums like Queen's Park are still being put on the market for over a million pounds. We have a long way to go yet.

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Guest Skint Academic
I feel sorry for those who bought the lies of the last few years but not those who took on dodgy mortgages enabling the bubble to get bigger and bigger. They are the people who have made me rent for the last three years. House prices could have crashed in 2005 and I would be in my house now, planting the garden and decorating. Instead I am renting a house waiting for the inevitable to happen.

I feel the same way. House prices have only just started going down, we're still in the denial phase. How much longer do I have to wait? And will it be a good time to buy then anyway because there won't be any job security? Mr Academic and I are now talking about emigrating to an English speaking country and I'm currently looking for work in another country even though the crash is underway here. It must be worse for people that sold to rent in 2005 as I know that is when I would have STR'ed too if I owned a house.

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  • 298 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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