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OK - can anyone guide me here?

I am 100% cash - but quite a worrying lot of it - 85% GBP and 15% USD

Looking at the landscape I want to put some GBP into Swiss Francs (or Norwegian K) - but my hesitation is based on:

- low IRs in foreign bank accounts

- large transaction charges

- Swiss carry trade role

My default keeps being that the cost/ benefit of switching out of GBP does not add up whilst we have savings accounts over 5%.

I will put some of the USD into gold on its next fallback however.

Thanks in advance for words of wisdom. :blink:

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Im in a similar bind.

Im considering opening a HSBC international account in CFH - but interest rates are poor

http://www.offshore.hsbc.com/1/2/internati...vings-account#2

Interested in views

Uncanny. I am also with HSBC (second safest bank after Lloyds apparently) but their rates, even if I switched to Premier, are underwhelming...............

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Although Aussie Dollars look attractive - 6.75% for 6 months fixed - and the pound can only drop against AUD during that period............Longer term I think AUD will drop as commodities shrink, but that is some time hence.

Thanks a lot CP! Maybe AUD is the way.

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OK - can anyone guide me here?

I am 100% cash - but quite a worrying lot of it - 85% GBP and 15% USD

Looking at the landscape I want to put some GBP into Swiss Francs (or Norwegian K) - but my hesitation is based on:

- low IRs in foreign bank accounts

- large transaction charges

- Swiss carry trade role

My default keeps being that the cost/ benefit of switching out of GBP does not add up whilst we have savings accounts over 5%.

I will put some of the USD into gold on its next fallback however.

Thanks in advance for words of wisdom. :blink:

I spend time in France and would have benefited by switching perhaps half of my cash into euros at any time over the last 3 or 4 years but was put off by the stingy rates on euro savings accounts. The recent rapid 15% drop in sterling against the euro - and still falling apparently - has made a nonsense of my sums. Might sterling recover some ground and make a nonsense of a switch now? Don't know.

Like you, I'm watching this space.

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playing devils advocate

are yuo really sure other countries wont be dropping IR?

we all believe the £ will be going down for the next 6 months or so- the solution would be to put £ into CHF/other currencies for 6 months and see how that goes - i think yuo can get 6 month swiss bonds - will have a look- theres also the question of transactions

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www.oanda.com - you can open an FXTrade currency trading account but you don't have to actually trade, you simply switch your GBP into sub-accounts denominated in other currencies (e.g. JPY, EUR, CHF, CAD, etc.). No transaction costs, just the spread (which is small).

Disclamier: I have no association with them, but have used them for a year or so and been impressed. They're US-based, so DYOR.

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OK - can anyone guide me here?

I am 100% cash - but quite a worrying lot of it - 85% GBP and 15% USD

Looking at the landscape I want to put some GBP into Swiss Francs (or Norwegian K) - but my hesitation is based on:

- low IRs in foreign bank accounts

- large transaction charges

- Swiss carry trade role

My default keeps being that the cost/ benefit of switching out of GBP does not add up whilst we have savings accounts over 5%.

I will put some of the USD into gold on its next fallback however.

Thanks in advance for words of wisdom. :blink:

I would take it all out of USD. The CHF is has got very good prospects. If you are going to put money into Gold, the CHF and Gold are fairly postively correlated. So in away you will not be offsertting any risk. Its like holding two accounts with gold. For foregin exchange appreciation in the longrun go for the CHF, JPY and RMB(yuan) However JPY, CHF interest rate differential will not favour you at this time. You will have a negative overnight interest rate payment. However large appreciation in any of these currecies could be 40,50,60%. The RMB could quadruple in the next 5 years once the Chinese let it float freely. Use a currency specilist, the costs shouldnt be too high if you arent moving them around alot.

Carry trades are unwinding. I would not expect carry trade to continue. They dont work in risk averse world.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
OK - can anyone guide me here?

I am 100% cash - but quite a worrying lot of it - 85% GBP and 15% USD

Looking at the landscape I want to put some GBP into Swiss Francs (or Norwegian K) - but my hesitation is based on:

- low IRs in foreign bank accounts

- large transaction charges

- Swiss carry trade role

My default keeps being that the cost/ benefit of switching out of GBP does not add up whilst we have savings accounts over 5%.

I will put some of the USD into gold on its next fallback however.

Thanks in advance for words of wisdom. :blink:

The Swiss Franc has appreciated in value by about 20% compared with Sterling in 6 months.

Still worried about low interest rates?

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OK - can anyone guide me here?

I am 100% cash - but quite a worrying lot of it - 85% GBP and 15% USD

Looking at the landscape I want to put some GBP into Swiss Francs (or Norwegian K) - but my hesitation is based on:

- low IRs in foreign bank accounts

- large transaction charges

- Swiss carry trade role

My default keeps being that the cost/ benefit of switching out of GBP does not add up whilst we have savings accounts over 5%.

I will put some of the USD into gold on its next fallback however.

Thanks in advance for words of wisdom. :blink:

But it's not really about the interest, it's about the exchange rate, shirley?

It's about the outlook for sterling and whether having money in that foreign currency does better than the interest. I put 20% of my cash in EURs and Swissies and gold and so far, it has generated the expected income from my whole STR fund for 6 months. But then the dilemma, do I take the profits now when it has only just begun, or do I hang on?

And Greg, you surely know this?

I went for Fidelity's offshore currency funds. They do AUD, CHF, USD and EUR funds.

I did used to work for them and had an account already, but you should be able to open one pretty quickly. As I worked on their Treasury FX system many years ago, I know they do competitive calls to different banks to get good rates and don't take that much off the top.

However, and here's what is concerning me right now, they have the cash with a number of banks. Any run on their banks and I can't imagine you would get much back. The terms and conditions say as much.

If you go with HSBC you would probably be OK.

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playing devils advocate

are yuo really sure other countries wont be dropping IR?

we all believe the £ will be going down for the next 6 months or so- the solution would be to put £ into CHF/other currencies for 6 months and see how that goes - i think yuo can get 6 month swiss bonds - will have a look- theres also the question of transactions

Are these govt backed?

I reckon these would be the best things to go for if they are easily traded.

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Sterling has already lost 27p (roughly 16% since August 2007)* vs. the Euro and may only have another 27p or so to fall before a bottom is reached. That will mean parity with the Euro quite soon as the storm begins to crash house prices and reposessions start to soar. So switching to Euros may be a little late.

Sterling has risen vs. the US$ somewhat and the next few months could see sterling "catch up" with the dollar which has been discounted far more to reflect the fact that the great HPC hit there first. It is just starting to get bad here in which case I believe sterling has a good 25% down potential vs. the US$ this year.

At latest count, I have about 70% of my assets in US denominated assets including stock and bond funds that are internationally invested. The remaining 30% in the UK, mostly in locked down pension funds which I can't transfer out into another currency. If I could, I would have done so last year and bought Swissies, Yen and Norwegian Kr. All 3 are probably a better bet than sterling--even this late. I am, however, going to stand pat where I am and anticipate CABLE to balance itself to the 10 year average which is a little south of 1.60 to the pound. If the crash gets really bad in the UK and finacnial services collapse a la NY, we could see the pound hit 1.50 or below for awhile.

The most danagerous currency right now is the Euro. It is literally going to blow up as it gets near 1.70 to the US$ and parity with the pound. IMO, Trichet will have to drop IR soon to bring the Euro down to about 1.30 to the US$ which is more sustainable.

*Pound / Euro chart-- 1 year:

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/currency-conve...=GBP&to=EUR

Edited by Realistbear

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No easy answer but as far as I can see you should get out of US $ then get out of BP and dont get into the Euro. I know you dont like commodities and I guess you aint interested in buying shares in some Chinese companies that are poised to benefit from the Olympics.

Have a look here at foreign CD's https://www.everbank.com/

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I would take it all out of USD. The CHF is has got very good prospects. If you are going to put money into Gold, the CHF and Gold are fairly postively correlated. So in away you will not be offsertting any risk. Its like holding two accounts with gold. For foregin exchange appreciation in the longrun go for the CHF, JPY and RMB(yuan) However JPY, CHF interest rate differential will not favour you at this time. You will have a negative overnight interest rate payment. However large appreciation in any of these currecies could be 40,50,60%. The RMB could quadruple in the next 5 years once the Chinese let it float freely. Use a currency specilist, the costs shouldnt be too high if you arent moving them around alot.

Carry trades are unwinding. I would not expect carry trade to continue. They dont work in risk averse world.

Yeah, you could be right about the 40 to 50%, and we could see it happen by the autumn as things seem to be happening very quickly now, come to think of it, we could see these kind of rises much sooner.

Yesterday's rise in the Yen (actually from Friday's close) from 201.5 to 193 makes a nonsense of worrying about JPY interest rates and I'm sure we'll see more of these kind of rises as the months pass.Surely the carry trade in relation to the Yen has finally breathed it's last ?

Quadrupling of the RMB!? You could be right .Maybe I should order my Wuyang step-thru scooter now !

Quite honestly though, I'd be happy enough if my Yen (gamble!) kept up with food and fuel prices.

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Have a look here at foreign CD's https://www.everbank.com/

Don't think me ungrateful but it looks pretty poor and I'm keen to find a way to invest in AUDs or RMBs: 1% cut on currency exchange and 2.25 on AUD for deposits over $98,000 doesn't look too good.

You've probably researched this much more than I have, is this the kind of deals one should expect for these 'exotic' currencies?

I can say it is way poorer that what you can get from Fidelity for the Euro.

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Don't think me ungrateful but it looks pretty poor and I'm keen to find a way to invest in AUDs or RMBs: 1% cut on currency exchange and 2.25 on AUD for deposits over $98,000 doesn't look too good.

You've probably researched this much more than I have, is this the kind of deals one should expect for these 'exotic' currencies?

I can say it is way poorer that what you can get from Fidelity for the Euro.

I havent used it and yes it is US based the investor that I know that uses it is a full time investor who lives in JoBurg. My cash is 100%AUD. Its strong now but I must admit by rights it should have risen yesterday and it didn't it dropped.

I though that the Icelandic system was the go with a spread to get the guarantee for UK residents, is that no longer the case ?

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I though that the Icelandic system was the go with a spread to get the guarantee for UK residents, is that no longer the case ?

Still the go as far as I heard but haven't done any proper research to verify it. I'm in NR for STG cash at the mo, they offer good enough rates for me not to worry about Icelandic banks.

With hindsight, yesterday was a big carry trade unwind day hence the AUD fall IMO. With the interest rates and strength of the Australian economy I would expect this to be a very attractive currency in the long run. The only thing that could kill it would be an Asian and commodity meltdown which is unlikely IMO (I do think more deleveraging could very well trigger a big short term correction though).

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Still the go as far as I heard but haven't done any proper research to verify it. I'm in NR for STG cash at the mo, they offer good enough rates for me not to worry about Icelandic banks.

With hindsight, yesterday was a big carry trade unwind day hence the AUD fall IMO. With the interest rates and strength of the Australian economy I would expect this to be a very attractive currency in the long run. The only thing that could kill it would be an Asian and commodity meltdown which is unlikely IMO (I do think more deleveraging could very well trigger a big short term correction though).

AUD heading for parity with US $ then 1.1 I am told, economy is very strong and nothing bad on the horizon

parity with the Brittish Peso 2Q09 :lol:

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AUD heading for parity with US $ then 1.1 I am told, economy is very strong and nothing bad on the horizon

parity with the Brittish Peso 2Q09 :lol:

Interesting. I really hadn't considered AUD. As someone pointed out earlier on this thread HSBC are offering 6.624% on a six month fixed interest. 6.4 on a 3 month fixed.

http://www.resource.offshore.hsbc.com/publ...tes_multi.jhtml

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OK - can anyone guide me here?

I am 100% cash - but quite a worrying lot of it - 85% GBP and 15% USD

Looking at the landscape I want to put some GBP into Swiss Francs (or Norwegian K) - but my hesitation is based on:

- low IRs in foreign bank accounts

- large transaction charges

- Swiss carry trade role

My default keeps being that the cost/ benefit of switching out of GBP does not add up whilst we have savings accounts over 5%.

I will put some of the USD into gold on its next fallback however.

Thanks in advance for words of wisdom. :blink:

I'm in a very similar situation, about 50:50 now. very confused. Made a small profit to date on holding dollars (!) but I'm feeling very stupid doing it.

My own reasoning was: if both dollars & sterling known to be falling, then picking 5 different currencies should (if purely random) hold their value better. And obviosly read around for some best guesses of safe ones, instead of picking them out of a hat.

Haven't had the conviction to do this yet - am new to it - and am sticking with (i) the advice I was given to keep my payment (5months ago) in dollars, plus (ii) the odd bit of chickening out pulling back to GBP at opportune moments.

Having seen the others all rise just makes me think they're just set to fall, "contagion spreading from the US" and all that.

Seeing gold rise 37% in the time i've been watching it makes me think "speculative bubble!" and very nervous about jumping on that bandwagon.

It seems EVERYTHING has a big scare story attatched :(

Edited by t350t

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Interesting. I really hadn't considered AUD. As someone pointed out earlier on this thread HSBC are offering 6.624% on a six month fixed interest. 6.4 on a 3 month fixed.

Its good if you are saving but not if you are borrowing

Residential Investment Loans

ANZ Variable Rate

Interest Rate Comparison Rate™ #

Variable Rate 9.37% p.a. 9.42% p.a.

ANZ Fixed Rate top

Term Interest Rate Comparison Rate™ #

1 year 8.99% p.a. 9.39% p.a.

2 years 8.89% p.a. 9.33% p.a.

3 years 8.99% p.a. 9.33% p.a.

4 years 8.99% p.a. 9.30% p.a.

5 years 9.14% p.a. 9.35% p.a.

7 years 9.14% p.a. 9.33% p.a.

10 years 9.14% p.a. 9.31% p.a.

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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