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Dr House

Markets Indicate More Concern About Uk Than Us

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Peston was quite good and very bearish today on the World at One. basically he said that the UK should be worried...very worried, because even with dollar meltdown the pound is effectively doing worse - the only currency not really droppingas much against the dollar. he said that this is because "the international investment community" has decided that the UK economy is extremely similar to the US - and in many ways worse..............

This position is reflected in the FTSE today which over the last week if you have noticed, has decoupled to the downside from being the DOW's poodle.......

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Peston was quite good and very bearish today on the World at One. basically he said that the UK should be worried...very worried, because even with dollar meltdown the pound is effectively doing worse - the only currency not really droppingas much against the dollar. he said that this is because "the international investment community" has decided that the UK economy is extremely similar to the US - and in many ways worse..............

This position is reflected in the FTSE today which over the last week if you have noticed, has decoupled to the downside from being the DOW's poodle.......

Taken him long enough to work it out - that the UK economy is even worse than that of the US - and that's about as bad as it could get.

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Well he should tell us something we don't know, but then I guess outside of here and a few other select places, excluding downing street (10 & 11), I suppose he is.

Incidentally, glad to see you are back on Channel 5 on Thursday for a new series, we have really missed having you in our homes. :)

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Well I was reading an investment mag last week, and I was surprised to see a number of large household name companies with debt levels of over 100%. That can't be a good thing.

I'm sure Iceland will sink under all that debt as well (the country not the chav food store that is).

Edited by DrGUID

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Well he should tell us something we don't know, but then I guess outside of here and a few other select places, excluding downing street (10 & 11), I suppose he is.

Incidentally, glad to see you are back on Channel 5 on Thursday for a new series, we have really missed having you in our homes. :)

Thanks Bob - the Hollywood air is better for my curious and epidemiologically unique respiratory system...... Hmm. Glad you like the show.

Yours ever Greg.

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Peston was quite good and very bearish today on the World at One. basically he said that the UK should be worried...very worried, because even with dollar meltdown the pound is effectively doing worse - the only currency not really droppingas much against the dollar. he said that this is because "the international investment community" has decided that the UK economy is extremely similar to the US - and in many ways worse..............

This position is reflected in the FTSE today which over the last week if you have noticed, has decoupled to the downside from being the DOW's poodle.......

I have always believed this to be the case as our miracle bubble is that much larger.

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/43831/why-th...n-americas.html

Why the UK's property downturn will be worse than America's
17.03.2008
Why Britain can’t weather a global recession
I find myself wishing I had a pound for every time Chancellor Alistair Darling blames the UK’s growing economic problems on those annoying Americans and their subprime crisis (as he did in last week's budget)...

Gordon's miracle is much worse that the US bubble due to the much higher percentage of irrespoinsible loans that fuelled our bubble. Much of the US did not see bubble conditions whereas 100% of the UK market did. Many in the US hjad 30 year fixed loans whereas only a small number in the UK have the protection of a fixed rate--and then not many with more than 10 years.

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We've been saying this for years:

Take the US, minus the manufacturing base and the raw materials. Add taxes, over-regulation and a bigger speculative housing bubble (plus more tax) and you have the UK.

Don't need a Nobel prize in Economics to see where it's going...

edited for chav grammar

Edited by stuckmojo

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Well he should tell us something we don't know, but then I guess outside of here and a few other select places, excluding downing street (10 & 11), I suppose he is.

To be fair from what I've seen RP has been very bearish for some time, see his blog from Feb 07 for example; really seems to be predicting the credit crunch about 6 months before everyone else.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/ro...s_troubles.html

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To be fair from what I've seen RP has been very bearish for some time, see his blog from Feb 07 for example; really seems to be predicting the credit crunch about 6 months before everyone else.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/ro...s_troubles.html

True, but I have yet to put him back in the "circle of trust" after NR.

Not that he reported it but that he was a mouthpiece for his old banker mates (allegedly).

Also as he tried to blame nouveau HPC hero Mervyn when it was the FSA who we later found out were to blame

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they're all jumping on the bandwagon- where were they 1 year ago?

An easy question to answer.

For years now, there’s been a torrent of cash pouring into hedge funds, private equity or any financial instrument apparently promising better returns than high-grade corporate or government debt. And the torrent has been turning to deluge.

So the volatility we’ve witnessed in global equity markets this week is simply the most conspicuous manifestation of widespread fears that we may be near the peak of this particular cycle.

In an era of relatively low inflation and low interest rates, the great markets trend of the past decade has been the so-called “search for yield”. That’s why private equity and hedge funds have boomed: they claim to offer super-normal returns.

It’s also precipitated a massive cross-border financial practice called the “carry trade”. This is the business of borrowing where interest rates are incredibly low – such as Japan, where the benchmark interest rate is half a per cent, less than a tenth of the British base rate – and investing the cash in instruments promising decent yields (in theory) such as emerging market bonds or corporate junk bonds.

The scale of the carry trade has been such that the price of genuinely toxic bonds – and potentially poisonous financial instruments issued by private equity to fund their purchases – have been driven up to levels where they don’t yield much more than really safe investments, such as US or UK government bonds.

Obviously the work of a complete VI ramper ;)

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  • 292 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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