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Converted Lurker

Anyone Else Struggling To Find Motivation To Discuss House Prices?

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Just struggling to get motivated to discuss house prices etc, all seems such 'small potatoes' in relation to the bigger events that appear to be entering a major phase atm. Anyone else feeling a mixture of emotions? :unsure: Whilst those with nothing/very little to lose have nothing to lose and are perhaps loving this series of events, so many of us will lose out somewhere unless we have protected ourselves by placing all our savings into primarily a physical yellow metal that gives no dividends. Even the protection of personal wealth won't help much if stagflation is the best case scenario..sorry rambling a bit, flu :(

Edited by Converted Lurker

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Just had a pretty bad long day at work, came home jumped on here and it took my mind of the days problems. Interesting stuff going on I think I am okay hopefully.

This place is like Churchills war room.

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Just struggling to get motivated to discuss house prices etc, all seems such 'small potatoes' in relation to the bigger events that appear to be entering a major phase atm. Anyone else feeling a mixture of emotions? :unsure: Whilst those with nothing/very little to lose have nothing to lose and are perhaps loving this series of events, so many of us will lose out somewhere unless we have protected ourselves by placing all our savings into primarily a physical yellow metal that gives no dividends. Even the protection of personal wealth won't help much if stagflation is the best case scenario..sorry rambling a bit, flu :(

Well big events certainly seem to be kicking in, but where I am ,Edinburgh, there is no discernable panic, and no cutting of asking prices for various hovels around the place. I am expecting this to maybe change soon? When I see the normally reserved residents of Edinburgh scuttling round the streets talking in panicked tones about the "crash" I will know something has changed.

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It's actually less fun on here now the housing market is turning.

We used to be the despised mavericks, sniping at the stupidity of the herd.

Now the herd is following us.

Boring boring boring.

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Hi CL.

Get well soon. You say flu, but do you mean Man flu? ;)

It is at times like these that I like to thank HPC for helping me to make the decision not to buy in the summer (we had to sell our house for reasons I won't go into on the internet, but let's just say we were made an offer we couldn't refuse).

Also, as the situation gets worse, I look at how much prices are currently coming down, and I expect them to come down and I think that I will have saved over 300,000 pounds in money I won't have to pay back.

That is more than I expect to take home in pay over the 5 years that this is likely to go on for.

So, even if I lose a bit of cash by putting it in the wrong place, I reckon it is nothing to the financial pain I would have gone through by owning 3 5ths of a vastly overpriced house.

And then there's the swissies and gold that I wouldn't have had a clue about.

BBQ over at Paddles place I believe?

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It's actually less fun on here now the housing market is turning.

We used to be the despised mavericks, sniping at the stupidity of the herd.

Now the herd is following us.

Boring boring boring.

Well the housing market has been supposed to be turning for a long time now, but to me the reaction of the sheeple should already be a lot more panicky than it seems to be. there are just not enough for sale signs up here in Edinburgh for people to be thinking they could possibly go into negative equity, I am convinced now that most people buying flats here in the last seven years are not going to be able to recoup their initial investment, but there are not enough signs of trying to shift property in a way that is appropriate to that scenario. I don`t think people in general believe that the carnage expected on here can happen yet. What is it going to take for people to try and get out with, if they are lucky, enough to pay off the mortgage?

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I'm starting to worry that the house price crash, which I thought would be a good thing although it wouldn't effect me (home owner, no mortgage, no plans to move) will be part of something bigger and badder. Sell to rent and put cash in bank - bank goes bankrupt - savings gone - lose job------ begging on street!!!!!!

In short, I can foresee the HPC benefitting fewer people than thought, while thousands of empty homes in Britain get bought up by Dubai or UAE sovereign wealth companies at knock-down prices. That's a worst-case scenario, I agree, but not impossible.

Just as people talk about a collapse of the western economic system and growth of the Chinese economy, along comes Tibet. We don't know what the outcome will be but it could have as bad an effect on China as 'our' coming 'drepcession' might on us.

Edited by Sofa Spud

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Well big events certainly seem to be kicking in, but where I am ,Edinburgh, there is no discernable panic, and no cutting of asking prices for various hovels around the place. I am expecting this to maybe change soon? When I see the normally reserved residents of Edinburgh scuttling round the streets talking in panicked tones about the "crash" I will know something has changed.

It'll happen, and soon...

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Visited a friend in Oxford at the weekend and stayed in his new digs. We chatted about how we're both happy to live in small rented places, and pretty much happy with our relatively poor financial lot in life. Walking through the Jericho area, my friend pointed out 1. Loads of for sale signs and 2. loads of unoccupied new builds. He asked me what this was all about. A few months ago I would have launched into a rant, but I really didn't have the energy anymore!

Also, my most bullish friend in London now gloomily accepts his house is worth xk less than it was six months ago, when he told me prices wouldn't go down.

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I'm starting to worry that the house price crash, which I thought would be a good thing although it wouldn't effect me (home owner, no mortgage, no plans to move) will be part of something bigger and badder. Sell to rent and put cash in bank - bank goes bankrupt - savings gone - lose job------ begging on street!!!!!!

In short, I can foresee the HPC benefitting fewer people than thought, while thousands of empty homes in Britain get bought up by Dubai or UAE sovereign wealth companies at knock-down prices. That's a worst-case scenario, I agree, but not impossible.

Just as people talk about a collapse of the western economic system and growth of the Chinese economy, along comes Tibet. We don't know what the outcome will be but it could have as bad an effect on China as 'our' coming drepcession.

I agree, but what did we do ten years ago before all this b*llocks started? By the way, I don`t have a TV, what is the situation now in Tibet?

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I spoke to a couple of people at the weekend and they still say house prices will never go down you should buy now or you will never afford it!! I made reference to Bear Sterns and they were not bothered they said that will not effect us at all. I carnt wait in a few years to ask them the same question

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I spoke to a couple of people at the weekend and they still say house prices will never go down you should buy now or you will never afford it!! I made reference to Bear Sterns and they were not bothered they said that will not effect us at all. I carnt wait in a few years to ask them the same question

"Truth is not a crystal one can put in one's pocket, but an infinite fluid into which one falls headlong."

-Robert Musil

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Just struggling to get motivated to discuss house prices etc, all seems such 'small potatoes' in relation to the bigger events that appear to be entering a major phase atm. Anyone else feeling a mixture of emotions? :unsure: Whilst those with nothing/very little to lose have nothing to lose and are perhaps loving this series of events, so many of us will lose out somewhere unless we have protected ourselves by placing all our savings into primarily a physical yellow metal that gives no dividends. Even the protection of personal wealth won't help much if stagflation is the best case scenario..sorry rambling a bit, flu :(

i feel pretty much the same over the past 6 months - house prices are irrelevant now to me - we are in much bigger trouble than that.

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I spoke to a couple of people at the weekend and they still say house prices will never go down you should buy now or you will never afford it!! I made reference to Bear Sterns and they were not bothered they said that will not effect us at all. I carnt wait in a few years to ask them the same question

Interestingly a couple of guys at work, one bullish a week ago, the other pretty bearish anyway, acknowledged that their genaration (early and mid twenties) would be buying cheap houses in the future. The Bear Sterns thing seems to have convinved them. The bullish one was a bit indignant last week when I said property "would go through the floor", and he rattled off instances of flats near him selling for crazy money "within weeks" of going on the market. I think he thinks "sold" pasted on the sign means it really is sold? Two people from Eastern Europe at work also acknowledged that the exchange rate now is not nearly as benificial to them as it used to be, and at least one of them is going to leave the UK soon.

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I spoke to a couple of people at the weekend and they still say house prices will never go down you should buy now or you will never afford it!! I made reference to Bear Sterns and they were not bothered they said that will not effect us at all. I carnt wait in a few years to ask them the same question

Bear Stearns not affect them at all? Let's see, the biggest provider of liquidity to the global housing market goes under and it's not going to affect house prices at all? Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. Bear Stearns is (was) a huge player in the mortgage securitization business that has inflated house prices around the world, and they are never coming back.

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I completely agree with this.

We've won the argument, those I meet in denial I just turn my head away with a wry smile and change the subject...

Most people just don't geddit, and the paradox is we have access to more information than ever. There's no excuse, and the ignorant shall perish. Sadly so will our currency and most likely our economy.

I just thank God for Felix Dennis who bought The Week, whose editor emailed me to subscribe to MoneyWeek whose editor (lovely Merryn) said four years ago "beware UK property bubble".

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Just struggling to get motivated to discuss house prices etc, all seems such 'small potatoes' in relation to the bigger events that appear to be entering a major phase atm.

I know exactly what you mean. In 2003 I thought house prices were a bit high... because 90% mortgages would be tough to pay off... but that it didn't warrant my time to think about it. In 2005, I realised that they were too high, and had to come down - somehow... but I hadn't time to think about it. By 2007 the outlook had moved from overpriced to seriously insane. I'd motivated myself since I was about 7 years old by deciding that if was at least as successful as everyone I met, I'd not need to worry about the future. I realised in 2007, that even if I exceeded every financial goal of everyone I'd met for 5 years, I'd still not afford to own somewhere safe to sleep... which *everyone* of my parents' age had easily managed... this rather undermined my incentive and motivation. "If what you are doing isn't working, would you continue to do it?" I exclaimed to friends/family that "something's up" - and I'm going to work out what. I'm sure they thought I'd flipped... gone over the edge... but I focussed my attention on this issue... and learned more in 2007 than in any year previously in my life. I read voraciously, chasing every lead... following aspects including local and national planning, national and world history, democratic process, history, political philosophy, statistics, finance, derivative pricing, trading systems, central banking - right through to world religions. I had an epiphany moment when I realised that everything that didn't make sense related not to the value and cost of things, but to the monetary system itself - and it isn't a shortage of housing, or over-population, or resource shortage... it is an over-abundance of credit debasing the currency. Everything snapped into place. I understood why the people I know who earn the most seem the poorest - and why many of the richest I've met earn minimal income... and complain about prices the most.

House prices and sustainable growth in small companies are the collateral damage - since mortgage and commercial debt are the mechanism of currency debasement - nothing more and nothing less.

To me, the credit markets *are* house prices.

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A.Steve

Nice, nostlagic stuff. I've given up trying to persuade my parents from selling their house (at a saleable price = -10% of what they are asking now). The problem is just so much bigger.

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Basically.

Sellers are in denial.

House which were withdrawn from the market last year are coming back on NOW.

Odd houses are selling - dunno whos buying.

Difficult to discuss house prices in a slow opaque market.

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I read voraciously, chasing every lead... following aspects including local and national planning, national and world history, democratic process, history, political philosophy, statistics, finance, derivative pricing, trading systems, central banking - right through to world religions.

The UK Property Cycle charted on this website a useful rule of thumb reference when coming to an uderstanding on house price performance.

Edited by Bardon

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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