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Bristol.


Sofa Spud
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The Bristol market seems to be bucking the national trend. It's so detached from reality. But, as they say, the harder they come...

I really think the Bristol market is due a massive crash, it's the only logical conclusion. When you have to pay £100,000 for a small flat in some of the roughest parts of the city there is something seriously wrong. And like you say, there is a lot of housing in Bristol.

It is wierd isn't it? Bristol seems to be holding up despite not having a particularly strong employment / income base

My guess is that the answer is on the income side - think my buying areas are affected by the dual effect of a retreat of professionals out of London, the posh student effect (making wealthy money more likely to stay around or return at some point) and a few well paid sectors (Law, GPs and Hospital, Finance and Insurance, Education - not well paid shurely? - a few well paid public sector jobs, and a handful of property bullshitters and 'events', clifton businessman etc..). But most of those sectors - finance, education, public sector, property / clifton bullshitters have either taken a heavy hit or are going to.. Leaves health and the law and a bit of insurance - can't be enough to keep things as high as they are?

And Bristol isn't demographically that old a city - apart from Clifton most of the asset rich old tend to head for the surrounding countryside

Beats me. Any one seen any good analysis of Bristol's economic profile?

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It is wierd isn't it? Bristol seems to be holding up despite not having a particularly strong employment / income base

My guess is that the answer is on the income side - think my buying areas are affected by the dual effect of a retreat of professionals out of London, the posh student effect (making wealthy money more likely to stay around or return at some point) and a few well paid sectors (Law, GPs and Hospital, Finance and Insurance, Education - not well paid shurely? - a few well paid public sector jobs, and a handful of property bullshitters and 'events', clifton businessman etc..). But most of those sectors - finance, education, public sector, property / clifton bullshitters have either taken a heavy hit or are going to.. Leaves health and the law and a bit of insurance - can't be enough to keep things as high as they are?

And Bristol isn't demographically that old a city - apart from Clifton most of the asset rich old tend to head for the surrounding countryside

Beats me. Any one seen any good analysis of Bristol's economic profile?

The average salary in Bristol is a couple of grand less than the national avergae, 21k instead of 23k, yet the average house price is higher than the national average. Go figure.

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Hi all,

Was a member of HPC way back in 2006 but this is my first visit for a while

I'm keeping an eye on the Clifton (although could never live in Clifton village - way too up itself) / Redland / Kingsdown through to Montpelier band of Bristol.

After a surge of properties during 2008, we've had stand off and then for the past four months hardly any new supply and things have been selling quickly for high prices - although for how high we'll have to wait for the LR figures. In Montpellier things have been hanging around for substantially longer.

But it feels like that phase is starting to end. A few auction properties are starting to crop up, and things aren't flying as fast as they were - but there remains a real lack of supply. At the same time there are a lot of people wanting to sell but holding off, postponing moving or renting out etc... Hopefully the positive patter on house prices will encourage sellers to chance their arm over the next few months.

My hunch is that London money (hence Clifton faring far better than Montpelier) / cash buyer and at a slightly lower level public sector money is what is keeping demand up - but this should start to dry up.

My game plan is to keep an eye out this winter but to aim for serious action once supply picks up in the winter of 2010 through 2011. The public spending cuts from 2010 on will be when Bristol starts to get real.

Bristol's a great city, has a good housing stock (pity about the tiny gardens) and probably a good long term bet (given the demographic exodus from London) but its current economic base just doesn't support current prices.

Glad to see there's a thread devoted to the place, let's keep it up

Cheers

JJ

Just an anecdote really but my Mum lives in North Bristol and went to a neighbourhood watch meeting recently where they said Redland has one of the highest levels of multi-occupancy houses in the country which is causing a huge issue. Those rich enough to afford a house there are becoming increasingly fed up with all the rubbish, unmaintained houses etc. Wonder if they will all start to up sticks to Chew Magna and the like???

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Just an anecdote really but my Mum lives in North Bristol and went to a neighbourhood watch meeting recently where they said Redland has one of the highest levels of multi-occupancy houses in the country which is causing a huge issue. Those rich enough to afford a house there are becoming increasingly fed up with all the rubbish, unmaintained houses etc. Wonder if they will all start to up sticks to Chew Magna and the like???

For reasons that I won't go into, I ended up pacing the streets in Redland about six months ago while I waited for someone; I walked at a reasonable pace for forty-five minutes or so taking in a number of streets and in the whole time I remember that I saw one (count 'em, ONE) house that hadn't been carved up into flats.

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I'm keeping an eye on the Clifton (although could never live in Clifton village - way too up itself) / Redland / Kingsdown through to Montpelier band of Bristol.

After a surge of properties during 2008, we've had stand off and then for the past four months hardly any new supply and things have been selling quickly for high prices - although for how high we'll have to wait for the LR figures. In Montpellier things have been hanging around for substantially longer.

But it feels like that phase is starting to end. A few auction properties are starting to crop up, and things aren't flying as fast as they were - but there remains a real lack of supply. At the same time there are a lot of people wanting to sell but holding off, postponing moving or renting out etc... Hopefully the positive patter on house prices will encourage sellers to chance their arm over the next few months.

My hunch is that London money (hence Clifton faring far better than Montpelier) / cash buyer and at a slightly lower level public sector money is what is keeping demand up - but this should start to dry up.

My game plan is to keep an eye out this winter but to aim for serious action once supply picks up in the winter of 2010 through 2011. The public spending cuts from 2010 on will be when Bristol starts to get real.

My observations exactly - I have been observing exactly the same area. After a load of stuff staying on the market for months in late 2008/early 2009 things started moving (and fast) in late spring/early summer. My impression is that plenty of stock did not sell but was reluctantly rented. What did stay on the market eventually went from around May/June. Rents have come down by about 100 pounds a month in the area from a year ago.

I have started seeing a slow down in the rate at which properties are going SSTC since early September (but asking prices are also at least 10% higher than they were a year ago so that may be slowing things down.) Some of the stuff coming on the market now (last couple of weeks) is ridiculously priced compared to asking prices just 6-9 months ago.

It makes me wonder if the vendors are trying to price in 20% discounts from asking prices.

At the FTB end of the market, I think the Sloane London Bank of Mummy and Daddy is also keeping the market moving - I am not sure how long this can go on. Given this I've decided to wait for another 6-12 months too.

I'd like to hear what other people's opinions/experiences are.

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Just an anecdote really but my Mum lives in North Bristol and went to a neighbourhood watch meeting recently where they said Redland has one of the highest levels of multi-occupancy houses in the country which is causing a huge issue. Those rich enough to afford a house there are becoming increasingly fed up with all the rubbish, unmaintained houses etc. Wonder if they will all start to up sticks to Chew Magna and the like???

Yes, there's a joint redland landlord student agreement not to give a toss about the locals - it's watertight and longstanding.

In some streets you've got very high levels of student accomodation. Really nice family houses (thinking of those north of the railway between clifton down and redland stations) but can't compete against the onslaught of pizza boxes and smashed wing mirrors... What is odd is that these houses would make nuff money if sold off, but they stay stuck in studentville. Are slum landlords to lazy or unimaginative to cash in?

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My observations exactly - I have been observing exactly the same area. After a load of stuff staying on the market for months in late 2008/early 2009 things started moving (and fast) in late spring/early summer. My impression is that plenty of stock did not sell but was reluctantly rented. What did stay on the market eventually went from around May/June. Rents have come down by about 100 pounds a month in the area from a year ago.

I have started seeing a slow down in the rate at which properties are going SSTC since early September (but asking prices are also at least 10% higher than they were a year ago so that may be slowing things down.) Some of the stuff coming on the market now (last couple of weeks) is ridiculously priced compared to asking prices just 6-9 months ago.

It makes me wonder if the vendors are trying to price in 20% discounts from asking prices.

At the FTB end of the market, I think the Sloane London Bank of Mummy and Daddy is also keeping the market moving - I am not sure how long this can go on. Given this I've decided to wait for another 6-12 months too.

I'd like to hear what other people's opinions/experiences are.

On the Bristol watch it's time to remain stoic and patient - the fundamentals will out. Just position yourself to revisit over the winter but prepare to accept that 2010 / 2011 are now pay back time. Hedge against inflation and with some non sterling in the mix and hold out and read some Seneca and enjoy a good whisky in your heavily discounted rented accomodation.

The market is severly disfunctional at the moment - which means traditionally more marginal buyers (aka the Sloane London bank) can shift prices and mop up available supply much more noticably. Annoying, but nothing to get too stressed about. The upside of this run is very limited - by looming tighter fiscal policy, limited cash buyers and, ultimately a very limited UK bank funding base - the downside is waiting and potentially large.

Will keep posting on any interesting trends. I think I can smell a change in air and the lock down sellers have had over the past four months is changing.

What might be interesting is that quite a few posher Clifton / hotwells / clifton wood / Park Road developments are now rolling out sales in some volume - presumably to meet post development cash flow issues - and these larger scale forced sellers could help push the local market on the next leg down.

Oh and let's avoid competing - would be a sad irony for fellow HPCers to start bidding up prices.

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On the Bristol watch it's time to remain stoic and patient - the fundamentals will out. Just position yourself to revisit over the winter but prepare to accept that 2010 / 2011 are now pay back time. Hedge against inflation and with some non sterling in the mix and hold out and read some Seneca and enjoy a good whisky in your heavily discounted rented accomodation.

The market is severly disfunctional at the moment - which means traditionally more marginal buyers (aka the Sloane London bank) can shift prices and mop up available supply much more noticably. Annoying, but nothing to get too stressed about. The upside of this run is very limited - by looming tighter fiscal policy, limited cash buyers and, ultimately a very limited UK bank funding base - the downside is waiting and potentially large.

Will keep posting on any interesting trends. I think I can smell a change in air and the lock down sellers have had over the past four months is changing.

What might be interesting is that quite a few posher Clifton / hotwells / clifton wood / Park Road developments are now rolling out sales in some volume - presumably to meet post development cash flow issues - and these larger scale forced sellers could help push the local market on the next leg down.

Oh and let's avoid competing - would be a sad irony for fellow HPCers to start bidding up prices.

[/quote

Interesting fact:North St./ Southville 75% public sector money (at the moment) keeping it going.How much longer will this last?

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On the Bristol watch it's time to remain stoic and patient - the fundamentals will out. Just position yourself to revisit over the winter but prepare to accept that 2010 / 2011 are now pay back time. Hedge against inflation and with some non sterling in the mix and hold out and read some Seneca and enjoy a good whisky in your heavily discounted rented accomodation.

What currency are you hedging with? It seems to me that all the usual suspects are also inflation-prone.

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What currency are you hedging with? It seems to me that all the usual suspects are also inflation-prone.

I'm not using currencies as my main hedge against inflation, using commodities and a little stock exposure, but am using currency diversification to guard against sterling devaluation. Euros and CHF - both have downsides (so don't put all your money in them) but I have more faith in the ECB to keep tougher on inflation (and hence keep FOREX markets on their side) than the BoE, due to the remaining influence of the Bundesbank and the lower Euroland debt exposure. They also have the advantage of having mainstream financial products available for them, and the fact that I am going to be buying things in Euros and CHF anyway over my lifetime so a loss can be absorbed with not too much pain.

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I'm not using currencies as my main hedge against inflation, using commodities and a little stock exposure, but am using currency diversification to guard against sterling devaluation. Euros and CHF - both have downsides (so don't put all your money in them) but I have more faith in the ECB to keep tougher on inflation (and hence keep FOREX markets on their side) than the BoE, due to the remaining influence of the Bundesbank and the lower Euroland debt exposure. They also have the advantage of having mainstream financial products available for them, and the fact that I am going to be buying things in Euros and CHF anyway over my lifetime so a loss can be absorbed with not too much pain.

Just had two EA chasing me this week and there seems to be a bit of a spike in new properties appearing on rightmove - it looks like the market is turning.

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Just had two EA chasing me this week and there seems to be a bit of a spike in new properties appearing on rightmove - it looks like the market is turning.

Am also seeing a bit more around.

There was a very good discussion forum in a property special from Moneyweek here which sets out a very similar pattern as being seen in the Bristol market up till now. The consensus is on further drops from now.

The one strong argument the bulls have is on supply - what incentives do sellers have to sell? So keeping an eye on the total supply very important. May be worth keeping a regular track on Rightmove results for set searches from now on.

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Am also seeing a bit more around.

There was a very good discussion forum in a property special from Moneyweek here which sets out a very similar pattern as being seen in the Bristol market up till now. The consensus is on further drops from now.

The one strong argument the bulls have is on supply - what incentives do sellers have to sell? So keeping an eye on the total supply very important. May be worth keeping a regular track on Rightmove results for set searches from now on.

Thanks for the moneyweek link.

Looks to me that the peak of the recent rally was in August. More and more properties seem to coming on the market.

The point is that sellers also have to get on with their lives - they cannot wait for ever for house prices to fall particularly

if they want to trade up - they MUST sell to get a deposit for the new place given current lending conditions. With all the media hype on house price rises they are probably worried about the possibility that the prices of bigger places will go up. If I had bought more than 5 years ago I'd be tempted to cut my losses and sell asap. Plus unemployment is creeping up....

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Am also seeing a bit more around.

There was a very good discussion forum in a property special from Moneyweek here which sets out a very similar pattern as being seen in the Bristol market up till now. The consensus is on further drops from now.

The one strong argument the bulls have is on supply - what incentives do sellers have to sell? So keeping an eye on the total supply very important. May be worth keeping a regular track on Rightmove results for set searches from now on.

Short memories. Property was dirt cheap in the last crash, because there's loads of it in Bristol.

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Purely anecdotal but there is a nice little street behind me with about 15 houses on it. The type that a teacher or a young professional couple would buy. Anyway, there was nothing for sale on it a few weeks ago and now I was shocked to see 4 houses for sale and one for rent. Looks like the flood of properties has started, so good news for lower prices.

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Purely anecdotal but there is a nice little street behind me with about 15 houses on it. The type that a teacher or a young professional couple would buy. Anyway, there was nothing for sale on it a few weeks ago and now I was shocked to see 4 houses for sale and one for rent. Looks like the flood of properties has started, so good news for lower prices.

Could you be slightly more specific on which area/neighborhood? At least I'm not sure what I see at the moment (except an awful lot of SSC-signs and some actual moving vans)

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Maggs & Allen Auction 29th Sept 2009

First price was the M&A guide, second is the price achieved.

People are still bidding high in Bristol, it would seem.

31 Oak Road, Horfield £135,000+ £184,000

14 Chakeshill Close, Brentry £60,000+ £109,000

Flat 15 Charleton House, Great Ann Street, St Judes £45,000+ £75,000

24 Agate Street, Bedminster £130,000+ £164,000

36c Hampton Park, Redland £150,000+ £159,000

18 Leonard Road, Redfield £80,000+ £116,000

1 Woodcote Walk, Fishponds £80,000+ £115,000

50 Franklyn Street, St Pauls £75,000+ £118,500

117 Luckwell Road, Bedminster £145,000+ £165,500

11 Paultow Avenue, Bedminster £120,000+ £166,000

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The Maggs and Hallen auctins are always surprisingly high.

More down to hearth, a 1 bedroom property in bedminster near my street is on sell for 112,000 pounds. The poor guy bought it in June 08 for 125,000 pounds.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-23229073.html

I am surprise I don't see more of see type of sell in bedminster....

sylv.

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I had a good look at 11 Paultow Avenue, Bedminster and was a bit surprised to see it go for £166,000. Trouble with auctions is you can be bidding against people who already have an emotional attachment to the item. If two of those people are bidding against each other then you can sit back and enjoy the show as long as you yourself have stuck to when to get out that is.

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Hi guys,

Have now tracking the supply in my target markets (Clifton, Redland, Cotham, Montpellier) on rightmove. Plan to do it once a week at the same time and within a series of search criteria. Have chosen to have the SSTC properties included - because it gives me a better sense of what is selling, even though that makes the results less helpful in giving a view of the 'live' market.

Supply is still low / very low, but has been marginally creeping up (by one or two properties) over the past fortnight. But nothing dramatic.

From what I can see properties between £400k-£800k (i.e. very desirable family homes) are still selling very very quick, but there are a fair few million pound properties and above hanging around in Clifton (the wise money both trying to sell and not buying). Stuff below £350k tends to hang around for longer (I presume this is the stuff that is more reliant on credit availability) whilst there is plenty of aspirational pricing (and not much selling) or crap new appartments.

Not much you wouldn't expect - but, also as expected, suggests the need to wait around for a while yet before we get downward price pressure in posh North Bristol

Hope useful

JJ

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The Maggs and Hallen auctins are always surprisingly high.

Maggs and Allen also put in low guide prices to bring the punters in - so the gap between the guide and sale price always tends to be high unless there is a real clamming up of buyers.

Suspect there will alway be property developers looking to go the auction route, so apart from properties which are less likely to work for an investor (family homes with planning issues?) this will keep bobbing along like this for the forseeable. Main likely change would be if we saw a flood of distressed sellers, which would alter the dynamics alot. That isn't going to happen until we hit a big spike of unemployment or rates (due to sterling crisis)

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  • 2 weeks later...

Just sharing - FYI

I'm continuing my close monitoring of BS6-9 on rightmove and it looks to me that we are back to the standoff we had last autumn/winter.

I'm looking at the sub 300K market and the rush in July/August/early September is over. Nothing much is moving and it looks like

we are back to 1-2 properties going sold per week per postcode. Prices are higher than last year however.

Just seen two flats in BS8 which have been on 220K for about a month disappear from sales and appear under rents. So it seems that as long as interest rates stay this low we'll just continue to have the low volume of sales + reluctant landlord syndrome. I guess we will have to wait until QE forces inflation up and the BofE has to raise interest rates for there to be movement in the market.

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Unemployment is down in Bristol month on month, but year on year it is up - with plenty in the pipeline for 2010

To quote from that BBC article:

"There are still thousands more people out of work here than there were a year ago. In Bristol for example, unemployment grew from 6,134 last September to 11,306 last month. ...

The fear that no sooner have we come up out of the credit crunch, than a big public sector freeze sends us crashing down again. Now all the politicians have talked openly of cutting the debt by curbing Whitehall spending, the only question is where the axe will fall.

And in the West, a lot of cash comes from Whitehall. Councils, yes, but also our huge Universities; the massive MoD supply and logistics HQ at Abbey Wood; big hospital trusts and quangos like the Environment Agency.

No-one expects to see nurses uniforms in the dole queues, at least not soon. But even if politicians save those "front line staff", as they call them, others will feel the chill.

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