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Sheer Heart Attack

When People Realise The Party Is Truly, Finally Over...

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I am intrigued by the idea that the sheeple will continue on regardless until some final event makes them realise that the HPI party is truly over. Not just the HPI party, but the debt-inflated rave since 1997.

The problem is that I do not know what that event will be. Evidently, it was not the Crock. If it was, we'd see the types of dramatic falls witnessed in the US and A.

Whatever the trigger event, my initial thoughts as to widespread recognition that things were different/bad are as follows...

a) the disappearance of property porn from daytime schedules on the main channels and from peaktime slots on the digital channels (except from the VI channels like Real Estate TV, Discovery Living and Overseas Property TV)

B) it may take a few months more yet, but the anecdotal feeling amongst the sheeple that they can not command top dollar for their shoeboxes,

c) the failure of a major DIY chains - B&Q are in trouble but, apparently, Homebase have been quadrospassed in their profit forecasts in the last 18 months and,

d) the closure of major EA chains in various different regions.

Perhaps the crash truly starts with more than one of these events occuring within a short time period. Perhaps it will not be one single event that gets us to where we all want to be.

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At the moment its like a video replay in slow motion, everything seems fine but you know an major event will happen but the slow mo has not got to that part of the action yet when it does happens it will be bad!!

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I think it's simpler than that PS. The real Nail in the Coffin for most is when they get direct evidence that a similar property to theirs, in their own area, either sells for "a lot less", or totally fails to shift. Stats, news articles, the lot - all good in their place, but nothing rams the message home like the neighbours selling for £100k less than you think your place is worth.

Or, to put it another way, give it a 9-12 months and it'll be extremely hard to avoid the concrete, local evidence.

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I think it's simpler than that PS. The real Nail in the Coffin for most is when they get direct evidence that a similar property to theirs, in their own area, either sells for "a lot less", or totally fails to shift. Stats, news articles, the lot - all good in their place, but nothing rams the message home like the neighbours selling for £100k less than you think your place is worth.

Or, to put it another way, give it a 9-12 months and it'll be extremely hard to avoid the concrete, local evidence.

I agree. But what will really have the effect is when someone they know and care about gets royally stuffed, by which I mean loses their home.

It's sad, and it should never have come to this, but it has.

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a) the disappearance of property porn

Aw chucks, what am I to do now. Guess I'd better stop dreaming and start saving for a house, damn!

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Sheeple are waking up to the Govt lie on inflation but they still think their house will "Stay about the same"... http://extras.timesonline.co.uk/poll.pdf

Support for Labour hits 25-year low http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/poli...icle3559480.ece

Do you think house prices in your area will rise or fall over the next 12 months?

Rise by more than 10%... 8

Rise by less than 10%... 22

Stay about the same... 36

Fall by less than 10%... 28

Fall by more than 10%... 7

Everything I buy including food petrol and energy bills is rising much faster than the government says

Agree... 86

Disagree... 7

Don’t know... 7

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Sheeple are waking up to the Govt lie on inflation but they still think their house will "Stay about the same"... http://extras.timesonline.co.uk/poll.pdf

Support for Labour hits 25-year low http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/poli...icle3559480.ece

Do you think house prices in your area will rise or fall over the next 12 months?

Rise by more than 10%... 8

Rise by less than 10%... 22

Stay about the same... 36

Fall by less than 10%... 28

Fall by more than 10%... 7

Everything I buy including food petrol and energy bills is rising much faster than the government says

Agree... 86

Just shows how thick and delusional some people are. This type of wishful thinking is a VI`s dream, or has been on the way up anyway.

Disagree... 7

Don’t know... 7

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I think it's simpler than that PS. The real Nail in the Coffin for most is when they get direct evidence that a similar property to theirs, in their own area, either sells for "a lot less", or totally fails to shift.

Fails to shift isn't enough, distressed sales will take up to six months to filter through to reality. The lenders have got untill the end of this summer to contain the ...er... correction.

I'm still bullish, I'm that cynical, but we live in intersting (to say the laest) times.

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It will be when they can no longer continue business as usual, whether that's MEWing, putting ever more stuff on credit cards, or having a job to go to. This is not only going to be about people with mortgages :ph34r:

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2009 is be the year of slaughter. if things keep going the way they are

assume we get 10% off in the next 12 months and all banks tighten up to 80% LTV or lower

that would mean. unless you have at lest 30% equity in your house right now, you are in BIG BIG BIG trouble if you need to remortgage later this year or nex year. and there are LOTS LOTS LOTS of people who do not have 30% equity.

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2009 is be the year of slaughter. if things keep going the way they are

assume we get 10% off in the next 12 months and all banks tighten up to 80% LTV or lower

that would mean. unless you have at lest 30% equity in your house right now, you are in BIG BIG BIG trouble if you need to remortgage later this year or nex year. and there are LOTS LOTS LOTS of people who do not have 30% equity.

They won't be in trouble as long as they can afford whatever the SVR is at the time. It's going to come down to (un)employment: those who lose their jobs (and I expect there will be many) will be in the poo; those who stay in work will end up paying more for their mortgages and will have to cut back elsewhere (and most have plenty of fat to cut IMO).

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I agree. But what will really have the effect is when someone they know and care about gets royally stuffed, by which I mean loses their home.

Or loses their "property portfolio"..... :lol:

Round where I am from (Cumbria) there are alot of people who think they have hit the big time as they have BTL flats (even my granny's hairdresser - yes seriously) I can't wait for them to get their just rewards as the ones I have come across are almost certainly the MEW types, the flash holidays and the 4x4's etc. it sounds like a stereotype but they seriously do exist.

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Guest Bart of Darkness
I am intrigued by the idea that the sheeple will continue on regardless until some final event makes them realise that the HPI party is truly over.

How about (e)

insert_brain.gif

At the moment its like a video replay in slow motion, everything seems fine but you know an major event will happen but the slow mo has not got to that part of the action yet when it does happens it will be bad!!

It's a bit like those PIFs (Public Information Films) from the 70s. I always got this sense of impending doom whenever I saw young Timmy flying his kite too near the pylons wires, or old Arthur approaching a rug placed on a highly polished floor.

I must admit I always got a perverse sense of Neo-Darwinist schudenfraude when Timmy got fried, but that's just me. I'm plain evil. I had some sympathy for Arthur though, it was his dozy daughter who put the rug there in the first place.

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Guest Mr Parry
How about (e)

insert_brain.gif

It's a bit like those PIFs (Public Information Films) from the 70s. I always got this sense of impending doom whenever I saw young Timmy flying his kite too near the pylons wires, or old Arthur approaching a rug placed on a highly polished floor.

I must admit I always got a perverse sense of Neo-Darwinist schudenfraude when Timmy got fried, but that's just me. I'm plain evil. I had some sympathy for Arthur though, it was his dozy daughter who put the rug there in the first place.

Forgotten all about these. Here's a walk down memory lane.

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=m0xmSV6aq0g&...feature=related

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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