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Sinking Feeling

Black Friday - 21/3/08?

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Anyone who was on here last year may remember that after weeks of a seemingly never ending bull market (late 2006 and early 2007) on most of the world's stock exchanges, that there was a sudden drop first in Asian markets and then US (and to a lesser extent UK) markets on 27 February 2007.

Quite a number of commentators pointed to Martin Armstrong's model - first developed in the 1970s and published in its format below in 1997, which showed the turning point of the bull market on this date. The bottom of the this cycle seems to be next weekend, which would seem to indicate that we can possiblly expect significant falls this week.

http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/...n_armstron.html

economic_confidence_86_year_cycle.png

post-7496-1205576841_thumb.png

Edited by Sinking Feeling

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Guest vicmac64

I'm not a graphs person (though they are very relevant), however my gut feeling is that Monday will be a day of mayhem on the markets - my guess is Gold will end the day above 1050 and private investors and people with money in the banks flee to what is seen right now as a safer haven.

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two years ago we were alone in thinking $h*t was about to happen but now every man and his dog can see it coming.

looks like we finaly achived critical mass any yet we still keep geting property programs on the TV each day.

i'm all for this at this stage in the game as it will show the mejia for what they are

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Anyone who was on here last year may remember that after weeks of a seemingly never ending bull market (late 2007 and early 2007) on most of the world's stock exchanges, that there was a sudden drop first in Asian markets and then US (and to a lesser extent UK) markets on 27 February 2007.

Quite a number of commentators pointed to Martin Armstrong's model - first developed in the 1970s and published in its format below in 1997, which showed the turning point of the bull market on this date. The bottom of the this cycle seems to be next weekend, which would seem to indicate that we can possiblly expect significant falls this week.

http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/...n_armstron.html

Thanks alot for that. I've been looking for that article everywhere over the last couple of weeks. That date was absolutely spot on. It was the first time it came into the public domain that something wasnt right and I remember thinking at the time that this article 'might' be identifying a significant turning point. In hindsight this Bubb style cyclical analysis has left a mark on me.

Edited by desertorchid

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Isn't Friday 21 March Good Friday (when the US and European markets will be closed) - maybe we will have to pick another date. Of course as Good Friday is the day when Jesus was supposedly crucified it is already a black Friday to many Christians.

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two years ago we were alone in thinking $h*t was about to happen but now every man and his dog can see it coming.

looks like we finaly achived critical mass any yet we still keep geting property programs on the TV each day.

i'm all for this at this stage in the game as it will show the mejia for what they are

still a long way from people here buying again though

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still a long way from people here buying again though

I still don't see why people think there's a necessary correlation between US share prices and UK property prices. I know there's an availability of credit link (to an extent) and a profitability of banking link (to an extent), but the experience of 1999 to 2003 should demonstrate that markets can fall while property prices rise. Similarly between 1989 and 1996 the Dow tripled.

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Armstrong did not nail the top in the general indices. That came later in July, 2007.

However, he nailed TO THE DAY , from almost ten years previously, the top in the financials.

Dow Jones Financials:

big2rg5.gif

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Anyone who was on here last year may remember that after weeks of a seemingly never ending bull market (late 2006 and early 2007) on most of the world's stock exchanges, that there was a sudden drop first in Asian markets and then US (and to a lesser extent UK) markets on 27 February 2007.

Quite a number of commentators pointed to Martin Armstrong's model - first developed in the 1970s and published in its format below in 1997, which showed the turning point of the bull market on this date. The bottom of the this cycle seems to be next weekend, which would seem to indicate that we can possiblly expect significant falls this week.

http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/...n_armstron.html

Unless I've got this completely wrong that graph indicates a market low in March 08 rising rapidly from there into 2009.

It actually indicates the problems are over.

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Unless I've got this completely wrong that graph indicates a market low in March 08 rising rapidly from there into 2009.

It actually indicates the problems are over.

What it indicates is that the Fed's policy of pumping money into the markets might have a short run effect until spring next year when the sh!t really hits the fan.

And well spotted that person who correctly identified the 21st March as Good Friday - this was, ahem, a deliberate mistake to check that some people were awake and I didn't at all slap my head in disbelief of my stupidity when I realised 10 minutes after posting! ;)

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two years ago we were alone in thinking $h*t was about to happen but now every man and his dog can see it coming.

looks like we finaly achived critical mass any yet we still keep geting property programs on the TV each day.

i'm all for this at this stage in the game as it will show the mejia for what they are

You are right, some of us could see it coming, and I would include myself in that group.

However, I take absolutely no pleasure in being right on this one. What is unfolding in financial markets is absolutely horrifying. No one will escape the consequences of this mess. Savers will find their assets devaluing, debtors will be upside down with the loans, and a recession will generate higher unemployment.

I am also begining to wonder about the value of pointing out policy mistakes that were made three or four years ago. With hindsight, these mistakes seem so obvious. The BoE cut rates too far, while the FSA allowed banks to issue loans to people who could not pay. Estate agents hyped up the market. Brown destroyed the pensions industry and that prompted far too many idiots to go out and buy houses as substitutes for pensions.

The key question now is what should central banks do in the face of a collapsing financial system. In this regard, I think the Fed did the right thing saving Bear Stearns. The consequences of the failure of the fifth largest US investment bank would be too appalling to contemplate.

Alice

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Guest grumpy-old-man
And well spotted that person who correctly identified the 21st March as Good Friday - this was, ahem, a deliberate mistake to check that some people were awake and I didn't at all slap my head in disbelief of my stupidity when I realised 10 minutes after posting! ;)

:D

it's not just me that does that then.....

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Guest grumpy-old-man
I am also begining to wonder about the value of pointing out policy mistakes that were made three or four years ago. With hindsight, these mistakes seem so obvious. The BoE cut rates too far, while the FSA allowed banks to issue loans to people who could not pay. Estate agents hyped up the market. Brown destroyed the pensions industry and that prompted far too many idiots to go out and buy houses as substitutes for pensions.

surely not, the government, BoE, FSA & VI's all colluding in this together.....surely not.... :ph34r:

Eddie George said it all imo.......

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I am also begining to wonder about the value of pointing out policy mistakes that were made three or four years ago. With hindsight, these mistakes seem so obvious.

Visit My Website

Of course, we need to evaluate where we are now and deal with these problems as they occur. The stabilisation of Northern Rock for example was crucial to ensure the problems didn't spread and allow a systemtic collapse. However, those that have allowed this chaos to manifest are still in power and need to be held to account. It annoys me no end when Brown and Co cite the problems stemming from the 'global credit crunch' as if somehow Northern Rock couldn't have been prevented when it clearly could.

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surely not, the government, BoE, FSA & VI's all colluding in this together.....surely not.... :ph34r:

Eddie George said it all imo.......

No, not colluding, more like f-cking up simultaneously. A ship of fools rather than a conspiracy.

BTW, I missed what Eddie George said. Where did he point the finger?

Alice

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Of course, we need to evaluate where we are now and deal with these problems as they occur. The stabilisation of Northern Rock for example was crucial to ensure the problems didn't spread and allow a systemtic collapse. However, those that have allowed this chaos to manifest are still in power and need to be held to account. It annoys me no end when Brown and Co cite the problems stemming from the 'global credit crunch' as if somehow Northern Rock couldn't have been prevented when it clearly could.

Chef dave

On reflection you are probably right. A little accountability would be nice. The FSA, in particular, still need to answer for Northern Rock.

It is just that the last couple of weeks have become really quite scary. Bear Stearns was a real shock for me. I always felt that the Investment banks were too smart to get caught handling the really toxic debt. Although I always expected bank failures (NRK was totally expected), I had other banks in mind.

Alice

Visit My Website

Edited by Alice Cook

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Guest grumpy-old-man
No, not colluding, more like f-cking up simultaneously. A ship of fools rather than a conspiracy.

BTW, I missed what Eddie George said. Where did he point the finger?

Alice

Visit My Website

oh I don't know....

I think they might have had a hand in it all together.

h'mmm

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Guest grumpy-old-man
Looks like a buy signal to me

just make sure you don't end up as a number on

this chart

;):ph34r:

dangerous & unprecedented times imo

Edited by grumpy-old-man

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  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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