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Home.co.uk March '08 Report

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Couldn't see a thread on this ...

http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index/HAPIndex_MAR08.pdf

Summary

The mix adjusted average Asking Price for homes on the market in England

and Wales rose sharply this month by 1.4%, boosted by a surge in premium

property listings predominantly in Greater London.

The year-on-year change in Asking Prices for homes in England and Wales

now stands at +4.4%.

Asking Prices in England & Wales have fallen 0.4% over Q1 2008.

Monthly falls were registered in only 2 regions in England and Wales.

http://www.home.co.uk/company/press/City_W...nic_Selling.htm

City high rollers are offloading their property investments as panic selling grips the housing market, according to the latest Asking Price Index Report from Home.co.uk.

Pessimism in the City concerning the property market and the wider UK economy has ramped up the number of premium properties entering the market, particularly in Greater London where a staggering 23% of the current housing stock for sale was rushed to market in the last 14 days.

This new wave of prime property listings has raised the average asking price in Greater London by 3.4% since last month to £361,414.

Doug Shephard from Home.co.uk says a poor economic outlook and high mortgage rates have had a cumulative effect on workers in the financial sector.

Many City workers are now expecting redundancies. A recent report by the International Financial Services London research group suggesting 10,000 City jobs may be lost over the course of 2008 due to the credit crunch.

As with the rest of the country City property investors have also been hit by higher mortgage costs, with mortgage firms tightening lending criteria and the Bank of England keeping interest rates on hold this month.

Shephard says: "They are bracing themselves for a tough year and don't want to risk making painful near-term losses on property. They want out."

He adds that recent government policies such as tightening up tax loopholes for rich non-domiciled foreigners have also had an effect, leading many in the City to believe that "the rich are now less welcome in the UK".

The rise in high-end London properties coming onto the property market has contributed significantly to an increase in the average asking price for England and Wales by 1.4% this month.

However asking price figures for the last three months show prices are still set to tumble during 2008. Asking prices have fallen in seven out of nine regions in England since the start of the year. Only Greater London, which rose by 1.6%, and the North, which rose by 0.3%, bucked the trend.

Prices have also risen slightly in Wales by 0.2% over the last three months, but came down in Scotland by 0.7% over the same period.

The current average asking price in England and Wales now stands at £259,026, down 0.4% since the start of the year.

So asking prices are up as supply increases with panic sellers trying to offload ... I wonder what effect that will have on actual sold prices ;)

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Regional average asking prices for Mar 2008 showing gains and losses over Q1.

Current average price 3-month change

Greater London £361,417 +1.6%

North £169,562 +0.3%

Wales £196,020 +0.2%

North West £191,407 -0.3%

East Midlands £190,619 -0.3%

South East £293,268 -0.5%

Scotland £180,303 -0.7%

Yorkshire and Humber £183,336 -0.9%

South West £269,228 -1.4%

West Midlands £206,622 -1.4%

East Anglia £263,174 -2.3%

England & Wales £259,026 -0.4%

East Anglia leading the crash?

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Asking prices up - well at least this statistic wasn't used to tell the rest of us that the housing market is fine and healthy. I recently saw an express article that took this angle, based on January asking price data.

Obviously, the more important data concerns supply. Those numbers are up. Asking prices are merely wishful thinking; partly driven by nostalgia for a time now past, and partly an angry response to today's harsh market conditions. It is all "so unfair; why can't the market be like it was last year".

Alice

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The London surge was largely down to Foxtons, i suspect.

They suddenly loaded all their stock onto Rightmove a couple of weeks ago. SW19 went from <800 to >1000 in a week! Plus all their sh!t is overpriced by 10%.

:lol:

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Guest X-QUORK

Don't forget that the asking price rise is due to greater numbers of top-end Kensington/Chelsea properties flooding the market, thus raising the mean average.

In no way does this report mean that people are asking higher prices.

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Have I got this wrong?

From what they say, the market has been hit by a rush of expensive properties, this means that the average asking price will rise, even if the individual asking prices are slightly lower than recently. For example, if most of the properties average an asking price of 250,000 and you then add in new properties, say 500 of them at 1.5 million each, then the average asking price will go up. However this has no significance at all IMO. Quite why they publish this is a mystery to me.

Can someone enlighten me?

Byron

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Have I got this wrong?

From what they say, the market has been hit by a rush of expensive properties, this means that the average asking price will rise, even if the individual asking prices are slightly lower than recently. For example, if most of the properties average an asking price of 250,000 and you then add in new properties, say 500 of them at 1.5 million each, then the average asking price will go up. However this has no significance at all IMO. Quite why they publish this is a mystery to me.

Can someone enlighten me?

Byron

My thoughts exactly - this is total NON data and complete rubbish - dangerous in the wrong hands. What it does show is that the non-doms are fleeing, the City $ankers are panicking. I overheard an EA in Notting Hill today telling a potential buyer "of course last year they were asking a totally unrealistic price, but this year it is more affordable" - the party line has turned.

... add to this picture the BTL rush to sell to capitalise on the CGT deadline - and we have a real slump by the summer in London - the other thread on this topic was a troll thread - London will fall hardest and it will happen by the summer of 2008.

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Take a look at the Land Registry stats.

Go to the top London boroughs and look at what has been happening to houses (not flats) in the area.

They are cratering. At the current rate of falls they will be -20% Yoy by september.

High End London property seems to be leading the crash, in complete contradiction to what we've been told would happen.

Though it seems as if I am the only one who has noticed this.

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Though it seems as if I am the only one who has noticed this.

Not at all ;) It's the high-end stuff that's toppling first here in Surrey as well, knowing the sizes of a few of the mortgages on some of it relative to the 'owners' incomes, I can quite see why!

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High End London property seems to be leading the crash, in complete contradiction to what we've been told would happen.

Though it seems as if I am the only one who has noticed this.

I've noticed this in prices in the West Mids as well. The top-end is coming down hardest. I don't believe RICS etc., the whole structure of the market points to the fact that there is going to have be some significant discounting even just to restratify it, forget anyone actually managing to sell anything. Nobody is going to buy a new build 3-bed bunaglow when they can get the sort of Edwardian city pile that comes with a small orchard, wine cellar, attics, etc for the same money. Its just completely delusional to list them in the same price band. This idea of being "sticky on price" has so far been represented as vendors resisting low offers but its beginning to be the case its making the market itself look very odd indeed.

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Home.co.uk should be congratulated on it's impartiality - it is the only survey I know of (FWIW) that shows the MEDIAN prices AND takes out £1m+ and £20k- houses. This is as close to the real world as we can get.

I'd gladly sell my (landlord's) house and the shirt off my back for home.co.uk...

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Home.co.uk should be congratulated on it's impartiality - it is the only survey I know of (FWIW) that shows the MEDIAN prices AND takes out £1m+ and £20k- houses. This is as close to the real world as we can get.

I'd gladly sell my (landlord's) house and the shirt off my back for home.co.uk...

I always enjoy the intro. commentary that accompanies their report, very clever.

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Take a look at the Land Registry stats.

Go to the top London boroughs and look at what has been happening to houses (not flats) in the area.

They are cratering. At the current rate of falls they will be -20% Yoy by september.

High End London property seems to be leading the crash, in complete contradiction to what we've been told would happen.

Though it seems as if I am the only one who has noticed this.

it's a car wreck isnt it? There is no panic selling it's panic listing, nothing is selling in comparsion to previous volumes.

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Home.co.uk should be congratulated on it's impartiality - it is the only survey I know of (FWIW) that shows the MEDIAN prices AND takes out £1m+ and £20k- houses. This is as close to the real world as we can get.

I'd gladly sell my (landlord's) house and the shirt off my back for home.co.uk...

And their commentary delves deeper into the stats than most others. I particularly like them noticing a sense of panic amongst sellers.

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  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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