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Black Thursday 13th March 2008


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HOLA441
FTSE 100 (FSI:^FTSE)

Index Value: 5,638.00

Trade Time: 3:02PM

Change: 138.40 (2.40%)

Prev Close: 5,776.40

Open: 5,690.40

Day's Range: 5,628.90 - 5,812.70

52wk Range: 5,338.70 - 6,751.70

The real story is:

TAYLOR WIMPEY (LSE:TW.L)

Last Trade: 159.40 p

Trade Time: 3:03PM

Change: 10.60 (6.24%)

Prev Close: 170.00

Open: 167.00

Bid: 159.20

Ask: 159.30

1y Target Est: 183.80p

BARCLAYS (LSE:BARC.L)

Last Trade: 442.50 p

Trade Time: 3:09PM

Change: 18.25 (3.96%)

Prev Close: 460.75

Open: 446.00

Bid: 442.00

Ask: 442.75

1y Target Est: 552.06p

The economy is tanking but builders & banks are going down harder and faster than everyone else.

Looks like U-turn Ali was mistraken on budget day when he basically said the miracle economy would avoid the worst of the global crisis?

At what lebel would you buy the FTSE?

4000?

Who knows, didn't it do well in the last ressession?

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HOLA442
At what lebel would you buy the FTSE?

4000?

Who knows, didn't it do well in the last ressession?

The problem is, I fear, this time its not going to be a recession.

Given the outlook for the miracle ecnomy and the fact that the reposession storm is in its early days here we could test below 5000 within a couple of weeks.

Overall, a good thing to be 80% in cash and the rest in safe mltinational stock bets and few quality bonds.

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HOLA443

Just checked the MAXI ISA self invest part of my STR fund. I popped a few £k in there for fun to dabble with NR last year, came out ahead (£500) then spead it all aroung various share tips.

Traded in a few old ones last month that dipped last Autumn and just came back to profit at the end of feb, as the bad bank results broke. So picked up bargin RBS (362p) and A&L (455p) in their place. Both running at 10% divi payment and will also get 7% on their final divi payments for 2007.

Anyway, all my stocks down today, even Tescos and Aquarius Platimum , closed yesterday just under £3k and are now at just under £2800 so about 7% down today. But then as I got my AQP at 462p and others cheap i'm still in the black for the last 6 months.

If I had £30k or £300k in shares then maybe I would panic, but I'm sure they will come back before I need that part for stamp duty to buy back in when the market bottoms in 2011!!! lol.

M

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HOLA444
There is, and more and more people are asking for it: they want the government to socialise the risk e.g. the US taxpayers to buy all those non-performing mortgages, at face value no doubt.

That would massively increase us government debt but I'm not should what the implications would be, in particular for interest rates and the dollar.

:lol: Yes, yes, a thousand time YES! Socialize the losses, this is the mantra over here amoung the Wall Streeters and Bankers. Private profits-socialized losses. All the business media is on about it 24/7 over here. All you see in the USA right now is a belief amoung Wall Streeters that the US Government will do anything, anything to keep stocks up. Of course they can't do it, but it will not stop them trying. Politicians have been paid great sums of money to respond to Wall Street and this is just what they are doing.

Your guess is as good as mine as to what happens. Dollar sinking, probably. Interest rates to real neg rate, good chance. American super power status, on the way out.

Good point about "socialize the losses"! ;)

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HOLA445
Such an action would have to be hyper-inflationary. The US government would be taking on the debt of the world, more or less. US mortgage backed securities are not confined to US shores - they have percolated throughout the global financial system. I can't see it working....

I don't think things will deteriorate to such a level, but if there's no other alternative to the financial system collapsing then this is exactly what they'd do. Look at the options.

1. Allow multiple banks to default, millions lose life's savings, financial system ceases to function, wages aren't being paid, essential services start to shut down, widespread panic with hoarding of food and cash.

2. Swap mortgage backed securities for treasury bills. Recognise huge inflationary risk and moral hazard, so immediately compensate with sky-high interest rates, tax increases, social service cuts, and strict new lending regulations. Recognise need for scapegoats, so bring punitive legal actions against some fraudulent mortgage brokers and sloppy valuers.

There's no easy choices here, but once the criteria becomes "less appalling" rather than "more appealing", then option two would win every time.

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HOLA446

I have £8K of shares left which I never paid for anyway (thanks SLF and BNC). I won't buy in again until 4,800.

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HOLA447
FTSE 100 (FSI:^FTSE)

Index Value: 5,638.00

Trade Time: 3:02PM

Change: 138.40 (2.40%)

Prev Close: 5,776.40

Open: 5,690.40

Day's Range: 5,628.90 - 5,812.70

52wk Range: 5,338.70 - 6,751.70

The real story is:

TAYLOR WIMPEY (LSE:TW.L)

Last Trade: 159.40 p

Trade Time: 3:03PM

Change: 10.60 (6.24%)

Prev Close: 170.00

Open: 167.00

Bid: 159.20

Ask: 159.30

1y Target Est: 183.80p

BARCLAYS (LSE:BARC.L)

Last Trade: 442.50 p

Trade Time: 3:09PM

Change: 18.25 (3.96%)

Prev Close: 460.75

Open: 446.00

Bid: 442.00

Ask: 442.75

1y Target Est: 552.06p

The economy is tanking but builders & banks are going down harder and faster than everyone else.

Looks like U-turn Ali was mistraken on budget day when he basically said the miracle economy would avoid the worst of the global crisis?

Come on now, the FTSE has taken a meagre drop today, 2% is not a big deal is it.

It must have gone up 3% in the last week or so!!

I doubt today is armageddon.

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HOLA448
Come on now, the FTSE has taken a meagre drop today, 2% is not a big deal is it.

...

I doubt today is armageddon.

As it usually does, 2% within the first 5 mins of US market open did look like a big deal.

But you're right, with hindsight, today doesn't look like armageddon.

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HOLA449
Come on now, the FTSE has taken a meagre drop today, 2% is not a big deal is it.

It must have gone up 3% in the last week or so!!

I doubt today is armageddon.

Exactly 10 years ago, the FTSE closed at 5782.30

Of course there are all those big divvy payments to add in...

All those Fund managers who used to say "There is no 5 year period where stocks have not outperformed cash"

Probably now have to look at 15 year periods. :lol:

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HOLA4410
I don't think things will deteriorate to such a level, but if there's no other alternative to the financial system collapsing then this is exactly what they'd do. Look at the options.

1. Allow multiple banks to default, millions lose life's savings, financial system ceases to function, wages aren't being paid, essential services start to shut down, widespread panic with hoarding of food and cash.

2. Swap mortgage backed securities for treasury bills. Recognise huge inflationary risk and moral hazard, so immediately compensate with sky-high interest rates, tax increases, social service cuts, and strict new lending regulations. Recognise need for scapegoats, so bring punitive legal actions against some fraudulent mortgage brokers and sloppy valuers.

There's no easy choices here, but once the criteria becomes "less appalling" rather than "more appealing", then option two would win every time.

Yeah! And Option 2 is what I'm betting on, simmply becaue it offers the easier and quicker political fix even if not the economically required fix.

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HOLA4411
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HOLA4412
Yeah! And Option 2 is what I'm betting on, simmply becaue it offers the easier and quicker political fix even if not the economically required fix.

So are you thinking that the Fed will do this thing of taking on all the risk, calming everything down and then raising interest rates and taxes? (Which would boost the dollar).

Sounds great but can they do the raises when people are drowning in debt?

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HOLA4413

Anyone who is tracking the FTSE 100 including dividends has lost money over the past 2 years and made massive amounts before that. You can't pick and choose so the fictional investor buys in at every low and sells at every high, still post to mid 2006 and including inflation (seeing as todays value is the benchmark) the return is below RPI 4% or so.

Adding in a long term view and buy in fees, annual charges it used to be lucrative but the damage has been great.

Edited by maxwell
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