A:gent W00 Posted March 12, 2008 Share Posted March 12, 2008 The Chinese government has begun a concerted campaign of economic threats against the United States, hinting that it may liquidate its vast holding of US treasuries if Washington imposes trade sanctions to force a yuan revaluation. Blog - Dollar to collapse? Fistful of dollars - China's trade surplus reached $26.9bn in June Two officials at leading Communist Party bodies have given interviews in recent days warning - for the first time - that Beijing may use its $1.33 trillion (£658bn) of foreign reserves as a political weapon to counter pressure from the US Congress. FULL ARTICLE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huw Posted March 12, 2008 Share Posted March 12, 2008 The Chinese government has begun a concerted campaign of economic threats against the United States, hinting that it may liquidate its vast holding of US treasuries if Washington imposes trade sanctions to force a yuan revaluation.Blog - Dollar to collapse? Fistful of dollars - China's trade surplus reached $26.9bn in June Two officials at leading Communist Party bodies have given interviews in recent days warning - for the first time - that Beijing may use its $1.33 trillion (£658bn) of foreign reserves as a political weapon to counter pressure from the US Congress. FULL ARTICLE. Link is faulty, any chance you could fix? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Sacks Posted March 12, 2008 Share Posted March 12, 2008 This it? Old news to the bond market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saving For a Space Ship Posted March 12, 2008 Share Posted March 12, 2008 (edited) He Fan, an official at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, went even further today, letting it be known that Beijing had the power to set off a dollar collapse if it choose to do so. 'Hit Fan' would've been his name without the spelling mistake Edited March 12, 2008 by Saving For a Space Ship Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A:gent W00 Posted March 12, 2008 Author Share Posted March 12, 2008 (edited) This it? Thanks dude FULL ARTICLE HERE or this one! We are riding the knife edge between hyper-inflation and deflation. This story highlights the hyperinflationary risk. The destruction that can be seen in the mortgage/housing markets is embodiment of the natural deflationary forces that are present at this point in the Kondratieff cycle. I'm betting that the deflationary forces will win out but this story sends a chill down my spine. Is there any historical precedent that can serve as a guide in this case? It would seem to me that the US is in a very unique position historically. Edited March 12, 2008 by A:gent W00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
council dweller Posted March 12, 2008 Share Posted March 12, 2008 This it? Yeah, if the Chinese dumped just 2 or 300 billion dollars of their reserves it would cause the dollar to fall off a cliff. I can't believe that other countries wouldn't follow suit rather than watch their reserves fall in value and Japan is in no position to respond to this, I guess they're running around like headless chickens now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yoss Posted March 12, 2008 Share Posted March 12, 2008 US would be insane to impose trade sanctions against China at the moment. Scary thing is they are probably mad enough to do it. Given that most dollar pegged currencies are feeling the inflation pinch and then some, If China bail you can kiss the dollar goodbye as you watch em all scramle for the exists. No Oil = No power No Power = No Production No Production = No Jobs US have played all thier aces in the middle east, I would expect south american oil producers to come heavily into the spot light in coming months with no dirrect US involvement (excluding overwhelming air power) all safely out of the reach of Russian and Chinease interferance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bazzer Posted March 12, 2008 Share Posted March 12, 2008 ace, an article form august last year... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest An Bearin Bui Posted March 12, 2008 Share Posted March 12, 2008 Thanks dude FULL ARTICLE HERE or this one! We are riding the knife edge between hyper-inflation and deflation. This story highlights the hyperinflationary risk. The destruction that can be seen in the mortgage/housing markets is embodiment of the natural deflationary forces that are present at this point in the Kondratieff cycle. I'm betting that the deflationary forces will win out but this story sends a chill down my spine. Is there any historical precedent that can serve as a guide in this case? It would seem to me that the US is in a very unique position historically. Niall Ferguson, the Oxford historian, was on BBC World's Business Daily programme this morning (8:30am) comparing the situation of the US to that of the Ottoman Empire in the late 1800s. Under Abdulhamid II, the empire borrowed heavily from European powers (the booming industrial economies of the day - back when the UK had an economy to talk of) to engage in ambitious wars of status against Russia and in the Balkans, as well as to allow development at home and raised standards of living. He compared this to the US trillion dollar deficit, wars in the Middle East (ironically for the heirs to the Ottomans) and their desperate flogging of assets to sovereign wealth funds to try and avert the debt implosion. Well, I guess we all know what happened to the Ottoman Empire after the First World War... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ottoman_Empir...E2.80.931908.29 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huw Posted March 12, 2008 Share Posted March 12, 2008 US would be insane to impose trade sanctions against China at the moment. Scary thing is they are probably mad enough to do it. By the same token, the Chinese government (who need rising prosperity for political purposes) would be insane to destroy the US's ability to buy their stuff. That's why they're so keen to control the exchange rate ... and dumping the dollar is plainly not going to achieve that goal. Which is not to say they will never dump their dollars, just that I do not believe it is in their interests to do so yet. It is definitely in America's interests to see a more competitive exchange rate though; the longer America allows the status-quo to persist, the worse their position will get. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yoss Posted March 12, 2008 Share Posted March 12, 2008 By the same token, the Chinese government (who need rising prosperity for political purposes) would be insane to destroy the US's ability to buy their stuff. That's why they're so keen to control the exchange rate ... and dumping the dollar is plainly not going to achieve that goal.Which is not to say they will never dump their dollars, just that I do not believe it is in their interests to do so yet. It is definitely in America's interests to see a more competitive exchange rate though; the longer America allows the status-quo to persist, the worse their position will get. Completely agree with you, infact, how has it been allowed to go on this long? Chinease are well placed to buy up masses of commod production with thier dollar reserves. And once you control supply? Given global inflation, who's population will crack first, those with AC, big cars and large debts and freedom of speach that can afford a drop in living standards, or those that work for $5 a day and only risk getting gunned down if they don't have enough food to eat? Sounds extreme, but I can't help thinking we are looking at a Mexican stand off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huw Posted March 12, 2008 Share Posted March 12, 2008 Given global inflation, who's population will crack first, those with AC, big cars and large debts and freedom of speach that can afford a drop in living standards, or those that work for $5 a day and only risk getting gunned down if they don't have enough food to eat? Sounds extreme, but I can't help thinking we are looking at a Mexican stand off. The very question I had in mind when I wrote my post. The Chinese have less margin for error IMO (tell the new/aspiring middle classes that the deal they've been promised is off and see what happens). On the other hand, the Chinese have more experience of, shall we say, controlling their population. We will be living in interesting times as this Mexican stand-off resolves itself ... the music boxes are playing, but who has bullets in his gun? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crash2006 Posted March 12, 2008 Share Posted March 12, 2008 T hats why the dollar will drop, it will cheaper to buy from the states than from the chinese. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crash2006 Posted March 12, 2008 Share Posted March 12, 2008 The very question I had in mind when I wrote my post. The Chinese have less margin for error IMO (tell the new/aspiring middle classes that the deal they've been promised is off and see what happens). On the other hand, the Chinese have more experience of, shall we say, controlling their population.We will be living in interesting times as this Mexican stand-off resolves itself ... the music boxes are playing, but who has bullets in his gun? Infact that what makes it worse when you dont have anything you dont lose anything, when you have something you fight for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huw Posted March 12, 2008 Share Posted March 12, 2008 T hats why the dollar will drop, it will cheaper to buy from the states than from the chinese. By some accounts they will be following the Chinese example in organising their labour force, too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yaakov Posted March 12, 2008 Share Posted March 12, 2008 Niall Ferguson, the Oxford historian, was on BBC World's Business Daily programme this morning (8:30am) comparing the situation of the US to that of the Ottoman Empire in the late 1800s. Under Abdulhamid II, the empire borrowed heavily from European powers (the booming industrial economies of the day - back when the UK had an economy to talk of) to engage in ambitious wars of status against Russia and in the Balkans, as well as to allow development at home and raised standards of living. He compared this to the US trillion dollar deficit, wars in the Middle East (ironically for the heirs to the Ottomans) and their desperate flogging of assets to sovereign wealth funds to try and avert the debt implosion.Well, I guess we all know what happened to the Ottoman Empire after the First World War... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ottoman_Empir...E2.80.931908.29 good points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormymonday_2011 Posted March 12, 2008 Share Posted March 12, 2008 Yeah, if the Chinese dumped just 2 or 300 billion dollars of their reserves it would cause the dollar to fall off a cliff. I can't believe that other countries wouldn't follow suit rather than watch their reserves fall in value and Japan is in no position to respond to this, I guess they're running around like headless chickens now. Looks to me like the US authorities are doing a pretty good job of crashing the dollar without any help from Beijing. Maybe the Chinese need to step on the gas and sell those dollar reserves fast while they still retain some value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Charlie The Tramp Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 China and anyone else can threaten to cause problems with the dollar and US Economy. All hot air and wind, if the US and dollar collapses they go with it. The Chinese are not stupid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 Small miners are the best to have - saves them banging their heads on the pitheads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bardon Posted March 13, 2008 Share Posted March 13, 2008 Without going into any of the detail here the one very impressive thing about the Chinese is there ability to play the game of poker. They have not showed their hand nor have they played one card yet and yes there is the veiled threats and the speculation (good poker playing). The longer they take to play a card the more impressed I am. In fact they may never play their cards a sure sign of the best negotiator. When the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao vists oz he goes to Perth, WA the land of Iron Ore not any of the eastern cities. What kind of poker playing manouvere is this ? This guy below also looks like he is a good poker player as well. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zN42pk7eozk...feature=related On the subject of poker this guy might have called his bluff http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHhV2LjOZzY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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