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Us Takes Leap Towards The Unthinkable

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A US government report on Tuesday forecasted for the first time that the country’s economy would enter recession in 2008.

The Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the Department of Energy, said in its monthly oil report that the “US real gross domestic product is expected to decline slightly in the first half of the year”.

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It added that the economy would start to growth again in the third quarter, “with growth for 2008 as a whole at 1.3 per cent, the slowest annual rate since 2001”.

Last month, the EIA did not call for a recession and forecasted that real gross domestic product was “expected to grow by 1.6 per cent” in 2008.

The EIA report did not specifically say that the US economy would fall into recession, but two quarters of negative growth is a common definition of recession among economists.

The National Bureau of Economic Research, an economic think-tank, is usually in charge of tracking recession in the US and sometimes it uses other definitions, analysts said.

The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook monthly report focuses on energy supply and demand forecast, but it makes a monthly assumption on US economic growth, weather and other economic data.

The White House has until now maintained that economic growth is weak, but has not said that the economy would fall into recession in 2008. The Federal Reserve, the US central bank, has also said that economic growth was weak.

The EIA said that US petroleum consumption would fall by 90,000 barrels a day in 2008 due to the slowing economy combined with high petroleum prices. Last year petroleum consumption rose by 10,000 b/d.

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  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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