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The Masked Tulip

Up, Up And Away - The Dow Is Soaring

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I'm willing to take a bet that pumping in money to cushion the credit bubble must eventually benefit selected sectors of the stock market. It was never overvalued like real-estate.

Inflation is taking off in a severe way and those holding cash only will be burnt.

Edited by nic

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The market sectors that have suffered most have been banking - with so much unknown debt still out there it is almost impossible to see banking shares recovering anytime soon.

As for those with cash being burnt... can't see that. If inflation continues it will feed through into higher IRs at the banks which will see those with cash benefit whilst, at the same time, property and such will go down.

Commodities - oil, wheat, gold - will eventually tank also. I would be having sleepless nights now if I was in gold - not because I don't think it will rise higher but because I think that when the correction comes it will be so fast as to be painful for many holders of gold. The 'big boys' will be able to bail out before the likes of many people on here - the little men.

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The market sectors that have suffered most have been banking - with so much unknown debt still out there it is almost impossible to see banking shares recovering anytime soon.

As for those with cash being burnt... can't see that. If inflation continues it will feed through into higher IRs at the banks which will see those with cash benefit whilst, at the same time, property and such will go down.

Commodities - oil, wheat, gold - will eventually tank also. I would be having sleepless nights now if I was in gold - not because I don't think it will rise higher but because I think that when the correction comes it will be so fast as to be painful for many holders of gold. The 'big boys' will be able to bail out before the likes of many people on here - the little men.

what makes you think gold is going to crash?

btw any idea why the gold thread got closed? was it closed cos they were just ramping gold?

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what makes you think gold is going to crash?

btw any idea why the gold thread got closed? was it closed cos they were just ramping gold?

I think it is going to crash for three reasons:

1. It is in a speculative bubble now which is no different to houses, dot.con shares, tulipds, etc.

2. The global economy is slowing down and hence as the global economy shrinks and contracts there will be less demand for all commodities including gold.

3. A boy on Moneyweek who has been talking about ramping gold prices for several months expects there to be a big correction - admittedly, he thinks it will be when gold is at a much higher price than now.

I could add;

4. I suspect in years to come when the BBC make one of those financial programmes looking back on this time they will have found evidence that gold was ramped up by those who realised they could make a killing from yet another bubble and/or something much, much simpler - the Chinese and Indian people started to become wealthy.

For the first time many millions of Chinese and Indians had the opportunity to buy gold not for investment but simply for jewellery for weddings, religious ceromonies and such. I think this played a big part in taking gold from 400 to 800 USD an ounce and then the bubble affect just took over to where we are now.

No idea why the gold thread was closed. Perhaps it turned into a VI bubble ramping opportunity?

Edited by The Masked Tulip

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I think it is going to crash for three reasons:

1. It is in a speculative bubble now which is no different to houses, dot.con shares, tulipds, etc.

2. The global economy is slowing down and hence as the global economy shrinks and contracts there will be less demand for all commodities including gold.

3. A boy on Moneyweek who has been talking about ramping gold prices for several months expects there to be a big correction - admittedly, he thinks it will be when gold is at a much higher price than now.

Your reasons are, to be frank, completely flawed. Oh, and gold isn't a commodity and also it can't crash as it's price doesn't go up and down. If you mean the dollar/sterling are going to rise massively in value, please say so.

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The market sectors that have suffered most have been banking - with so much unknown debt still out there it is almost impossible to see banking shares recovering anytime soon.

As for those with cash being burnt... can't see that. If inflation continues it will feed through into higher IRs at the banks which will see those with cash benefit whilst, at the same time, property and such will go down.

Commodities - oil, wheat, gold - will eventually tank also. I would be having sleepless nights now if I was in gold - not because I don't think it will rise higher but because I think that when the correction comes it will be so fast as to be painful for many holders of gold. The 'big boys' will be able to bail out before the likes of many people on here - the little men.

I'm not so sure it will feed through to higher IRs, at least not enough to make a real return. Look at the US. Inflation rising and they're slashing rates. Look at oil inflation, food inflation. Things are about to get much more expensive.

The political will is inclined to help those with houses and in debt, and it will be at the expense of savers.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
Your reasons are, to be frank, completely flawed. Oh, and gold isn't a commodity and also it can't crash as it's price doesn't go up and down. If you mean the dollar/sterling are going to rise massively in value, please say so.

Oh well you learn something every day. :rolleyes:

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Food has only become expensive because of people now speculating in it and creating a bubble in wheat, grains, rice, etc. The bubble makers are like sharks who have to keep swiming in order to stay alive. This time though they are making basic foodstuffs expensive which is causing serious harm to the poor people of the World.

As for this nonsense about gold not being a commodity - well, that is just the talk of vested interest on here who are ramping gold and hoping to drag others into their bubble. Gold will probably go up before it goes down but when it does a lot of the gold rampers on here are going to get stung big time. It is just another bubble.

Oil - oil is different. We are told it is in decline. Others say not yet. There is certainly greater World demand for it. If the global economy slows then oil will fall in price. Problem is, as soon as the economy takes off again the price will soar back up.

Sadly, where we are now with rising prices in all the above then serious inflation is feeding through into the economies of the US, UK and others. Yes, I agree they are stuffing the savers now in trying to save the debtors' houses but it sure ain't working in the US. Eventually, they will have to start raising IRs otherwise the long-term implications of inflation will simply mean everything is costing more in the West and that will have a knock-on affect on IR rates in the banks.

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I think it is going to crash for three reasons:

1. It is in a speculative bubble now which is no different to houses, dot.con shares, tulipds, etc.

2. The global economy is slowing down and hence as the global economy shrinks and contracts there will be less demand for all commodities including gold.

3. A boy on Moneyweek who has been talking about ramping gold prices for several months expects there to be a big correction - admittedly, he thinks it will be when gold is at a much higher price than now.

I could add;

4. I suspect in years to come when the BBC make one of those financial programmes looking back on this time they will have found evidence that gold was ramped up by those who realised they could make a killing from yet another bubble and/or something much, much simpler - the Chinese and Indian people started to become wealthy.

For the first time many millions of Chinese and Indians had the opportunity to buy gold not for investment but simply for jewellery for weddings, religious ceromonies and such. I think this played a big part in taking gold from 400 to 800 USD an ounce and then the bubble affect just took over to where we are now.

No idea why the gold thread was closed. Perhaps it turned into a VI bubble ramping opportunity?

Your using the past as a guide to the future MT. This is nothing to do with bubbles, commodities or ramping.

What is happening here is a global shift away from the Dollar as the worlds reserve currency. Something will have to replace it, preferably something which can be used as a universal standard measure of value for industrial, commercial and international business transactions......... :ph34r:

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For the last time, how exactly do you ramp gold? The buying power of the HPC audience is so comparatively tiny that to suggest ramping is just absurd.

Edited by Errol

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For the last time, how exactly do you ramp gold? The buying power of the HPC audience is so comparatively tine that to suggest ramping is just absurd.

You type 'gold' into google and see 1001 new items on gold, gold up on youtube, all the doom and gloom end of the world economic websites saying buy gold. You have people now who could not get on the radio or tv years ago because they were considered nutters who now have their own websites, viewed by thousands of people daily, telling everyone that civilisation as we know it is about to end and you had better have gold and a shotgun, waiting on their every utterance. The combined audiences of those websites must be millions... and then you have all the new Chinese and Indian middle classes who now have cash and for whom gold buying has long been a custom or weddings, birthdays and other celebrations. That is how you ramp gold.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
For the last time, how exactly do you ramp gold? The buying power of the HPC audience is so comparatively tine that to suggest ramping is just absurd.

If you say so. ;)

You type 'gold' into google and see 1001 new items on gold, gold up on youtube, all the doom and gloom end of the world economic websites saying buy gold. You have people now who could not get on the radio or tv years ago because they were considered nutters who now have their own websites, viewed by thousands of people daily, telling everyone that civilisation as we know it is about to end and you had better have gold and a shotgun, waiting on their every utterance. The combined audiences of those websites must be millions... and then you have all the new Chinese and Indian middle classes who now have cash and for whom gold buying has long been a custom or weddings, birthdays and other celebrations. That is how you ramp gold.

Got it in one MT. ;)

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If you say so. ;)

I'm prepared to bet that not many people on the forum have the billions it would take to move the market. I suppose there could be a few. Is Roman Abrahmovic a reader?

Edited by Errol

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You type 'gold' into google and see 1001 new items on gold, gold up on youtube, all the doom and gloom end of the world economic websites saying buy gold. You have people now who could not get on the radio or tv years ago because they were considered nutters who now have their own websites, viewed by thousands of people daily, telling everyone that civilisation as we know it is about to end and you had better have gold and a shotgun, waiting on their every utterance. The combined audiences of those websites must be millions... and then you have all the new Chinese and Indian middle classes who now have cash and for whom gold buying has long been a custom or weddings, birthdays and other celebrations. That is how you ramp gold.

You can find just as many people telling you not to buy it. We are not even approaching bubble status in the bullion market. There is no evidence that the ordinary man in the street is buying gold. In fact, it is quite the opposite. They are selling in their droves.

A classic indicator of a market preparing for massive gains if ever I saw one.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
I'm prepared to bet that not many people on the forum have the billions it would take to move the market. I suppose there could be a few. Is Roman Abrahmovic a reader?

( Source Goldfinger ) 18% of the Gold mined from creation is held by individuals, surely this 18% are more active buying and selling on a daily basis in the markets thus dictating the price of Gold, same in the property market one seller in a single area creates the current price for all similiar properties in that area.

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Your reasons are, to be frank, completely flawed. Oh, and gold isn't a commodity and also it can't crash as it's price doesn't go up and down. If you mean the dollar/sterling are going to rise massively in value, please say so.

Of course. All through history you could always get a decent pair of shoes and a suit for 1oz. How do you explain that in the past 6 months the suit has gone from being moss bros to Lewins and the shoes from clarkes to churches; has there been a glut of Super 100 and fine shoe leather? Also, I have seen both dollar and gold rise in value simultaneously; how do you explain that? Stop being so f'ing ridiculous! :lol:

Edited by kilroy

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I think these new fangled ETFs have a lot to do with the commodities rise.

It would never have been possible for someone like me to have bought gold except for physical heavy bits of metal, or grains or natural gas or copper. I could even buy sugar and live hogs today, through the same dealer as one trades shares from. There must be others like me who have traded shares and don't feel the stock market is a good investment.

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I think these new fangled ETFs have a lot to do with the commodities rise.

While knowing little about either EFT's or CDwhatsits the though strikes me they are probably about as reliable as 'investments'?

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what makes you think gold is going to crash?

btw any idea why the gold thread got closed? was it closed cos they were just ramping gold?

Ramping gold is as bad as ramping houses.

A house bubble is nodifferent from a gold bubble. Rampers like Goldfinger are as bad as any other bubble rampers.

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You can find just as many people telling you not to buy it. We are not even approaching bubble status in the bullion market. There is no evidence that the ordinary man in the street is buying gold. In fact, it is quite the opposite. They are selling in their droves.

Yes, you can find plenty of info saying that gold is a bubble and not to buy it... but the people who shrug their shoulders and do not buy it do not affect the price of gold. They simply get on with their lives, click on another link and view the thankfully endless supplies of images of gorgeous women online.

Alas, a percentage of people will be taken in by the gold rampers and vested interests or will go along with the 'end of the world go live in a nuclear bunker with a shotgun, 10,000 tins of baked beans and, given the choice, their bars of gold over a woman'... and they go out to buy gold. In fact, they don't go out but simply buy it online - most probably never ever see their gold. Easilly tens of thousands of them, maybe even millions of them, all buying their gold shares and some even hoarding the real mccoy underneath their mattresses... and ramping up the prices.

The Internet, and day trading, is now considered fact as being one of the reasons - not the only one but certainly an important one - behind the huge rise in dot.con shares and then the subsequent collapse. Millions of Americans were online in the late 1990s day trading, something that had never been seen before, and they helped drive up the dot.con shares to ridiculous levels. Heck, I worked with people who effectively you could not get 5 minutes out of them at that time because they spent all day in work online buying and selling shares.

And then it went all POP!

And millions of them lost everything because the big boys had IT systems that could sell shares and they got out whilst most of the day trading systems went down so swamped were they with people trying to sell. I think gold is going to be the same.

Oh, and don't forget all those financial TV shows in the 1990s that had so-called experts on them telling you to buy such and such dot.con shares - the exact same shares that they had bought themselves previously. Buy some shares in X company, go on TV and say buy X company shares and millions went out and bought those shares on the advice of the 'expert'. The TV experts made fortunes from that - some later went to jail, some got investigated and had a slap on the wrist but most got away with millions. Are these financial websites ramping gold any different to the TV experts on all those financial channels in 1990s telling us to buy dot.con shares??? You tell me!

If this was 1999 now there would be no shortage of expert websites telling people to buy dot.con shares, that there is a new paradigm to the global economy and that companies who had never made a penny profit were worth BILLIONS of dollars! I wonder what many of those experts are doing now? I wonder what advice they are giving?

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Ramping gold is as bad as ramping houses.

A house bubble is nodifferent from a gold bubble. Rampers like Goldfinger are as bad as any other bubble rampers.

gold is not a basic human need. If you don't want to buy it you don't have to so its price need not affect you.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
And then it went all POP!

I like the cut of your Jib MT, is that the correct phrase ? :unsure:

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Looks like the b*****ers in the City will have to find a backbone tomorrow and try to make the FTSE rise! Is this FP's much awaited sudden leap in March?

Yes it is. Dow 15000 is the main target. Not this month of course but that is where we feel it is going - and all (most) other stock markets will follow.

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Yes it is. Dow 15000 is the main target. Not this month of course but that is where we feel it is going - and all (most) other stock markets will follow.

I'm only awake at the moment because of anxiety over my spread betting account's only open position to the Dow - hope it doesn't soar again first thing. It's been a great few weeks for me though in spread betting.

Whilst I'm not any expert in finance, I could see circumstances where Financial Planner might be correct (for many complicated reasons) - and that really makes my trading guarded.

Source: The New York Times

The Dow Jones industrial average soared 416 points, or 3.6 percent, in its biggest increase in points in more than five years.
“They are essentially creating a $300 billion bank out of nothing,” said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP, a financial research firm.

But while the Fed’s moves may relieve short-term cash problems, Mr. Crandall said, “it doesn’t solve the fundamental issue, which is the decline of capital in the banking system.”

Indeed, some analysts warned that the central bank might make things worse in the long run by postponing the repricing of mortgage assets that financial institutions are holding, or by further weakening the value of the dollar and aggravating inflation.

“The Fed is saying if you don’t want those mortgages, then give them to us,” said Peter D. Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, an investment firm in Darien, Conn. “The Fed thinks that inflation is the way to solve our problems, but all this does is create bigger problems.”

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  • 297 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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