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Commodity Argmageddon

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Jim Rogers - who co-founded the now closed Quantum Fund with George Soros - told 750 global fund managers in Tokyo today that, America is “completely out of control”, there will be a 20-year bull market in commodities and that prices will be in turmoil.

And he also warned that it “made sense” if global competition for resources ended in armed conflict.

Mr Rogers told delegates to the CLSA investment forum that the prices of all agricultural products would “explode” in coming years and that the price of gold, which hit an all-time high of $964 an ounce yesterday, will continue its surge to as much as $3,500 an ounce.

Gold would continue to rise, the analyst Christopher Wood told fund managers, “because it is the exact opposite of a structured finance product”.

In a blistering attack on US monetary policy and the “helicopter cash drop” responses of the Federal Reserve, Mr Rogers described the American dollar as a “terribly flawed currency”.

He said that the plan by Ben Bernanke, the Fed Chairman, to “crank up the money-printing machines and run them until we run out of trees” had exposed America’s weakest point to her rivals and enemies.

The dollar may have declined recently, he added, “but you ain’t seen nothing yet”.

Talking to a room almost exclusively populated with Japan-focused equity investors, Mr Rogers recommended an immediate language course in Mandarin and a switch into commodities — the second-biggest market in the world behind foreign exchange.

Mr Rogers said that historic drains on wheat, corn and other soft commodity inventories have created market dynamics that could lead to severe food shortages.

The outlook over the next two decades would see prices of everything from cotton and sugar to lead and nickel “going through the roof”.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle3451136.ece

See also http://www.cnbc.com/id/23474773

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And he also warned that it “made sense” if global competition for resources ended in armed conflict.

As an Asian Bull this is the one thing that worries me most. And we know where the armed conflcit will originate from. This could lead to the large one I have no doubt that some bible crazed Texan or ex War Hero would have no hesitation in pushing the button to reset the market balance.

Edited by Bardon

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This is based on the belief that America and the west will continue to consume as they do now. This is a flawed belief.

No it isnt. He says any US recession is not enough to compensate for the huge expansion and growth of Chindia etc. and other factors.

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This is based on the belief that America and the west will continue to consume as they do now. This is a flawed belief.

Its not you know its based on a beleif of rapidly growing BRIC economies a thing that most Eurobears just dont know anything about.

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Hmmm. Many years of good World economic growth, a commodity boom, the world running out of resources. It's the 1970s all over again.

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Hmmm. Many years of good World economic growth, a commodity boom, the world running out of resources. It's the 1970s all over again.

Very different from the 1970's as we didn't have the BRIC economies then. Once you grasp that then you will understand what he is on about.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable

Gold, all time high of $964?

Surely some mistake in that article?

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Its not you know its based on a beleif of rapidly growing BRIC economies a thing that most Eurobears just dont know anything about.

The rapid growth of BRIC will soon transform into big freefalls. They will be thrashed into oblivion.

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Yes there will always be nutters the majority who extrapolate at the end of a long trend, its never been otherwise.

Real estate, stock bubbles, anti-bubbles, tulips whatever :rolleyes:

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Wouldn't a Eurobear be one who was bearish on the Euro? Probably more apt to call them commodities bears, or emerging markets bears?

Quite right Panda Bears may be more appropriate.

The point being a lot of UK posters IMO are bearsih on Asia without any reasoning.

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The rapid growth of BRIC will soon transform into big freefalls. They will be thrashed into oblivion.

Rondy, good point I understand what you are saying, do you have some figures on this ?

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Yes there will always be nutters the majority who extrapolate at the end of a long trend, its never been otherwise.

Real estate, stock bubbles, anti-bubbles, tulips whatever :rolleyes:

and best of all water bubbles :lol::lol::lol:;)

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The point being a lot of UK posters IMO are bearsih on Asia without any reasoning.

Most of the people I know, are generally bull-ish though fear, ignorance or hope.

I have not met a single soul in six months who is bullish on EU-USA and bearish on BRIC.

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Most of the people I know, are generally bull-ish though fear, ignorance or hope.

I have not met a single soul in six months who is bullish on EU-USA and bearish on BRIC.

Okay got the drift EU-USA although we are solitary animals we are all bears together collectively gorging on the honey pot on this one.

Other than me, and I know that you dont know me, do you know any other UK souls that are bull-ish on BRIC or are they all bear-ish on BRIC.

And while we are at it since I showed you mine (bullishness on BRIC) you show me yours :lol:

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This is based on the belief that America and the west World will continue to consume as they do now. This is a flawed belief.

The biggest proportional drop in consumption will be in the west but it is my belief people are under estimating the fragility of the emerging markets. I am not saying they will return from where they have come from but I think it is wrong to extrapolate their success from a period where the West has been throwing money at them in every way conceivable.

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Other than me, and I know that you dont know me, do you know any other UK souls that are bull-ish on BRIC or are they all bear-ish on BRIC.
o

we will see. The effect of the slowdown is already being felt in Chinese exports http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1205134660...=googlenews_wsj so will domestic demand rise to fill the gap? Who knows there are a lot of people in China but the average wage nationwide is still only 53c US p.h. it would take a while to buy a flatscreen TV on that wage. Maybe this is one slow down too early for the great decoupling - we'll find out soon enough.

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Its always about natural resources and the grab for them. England became "Great" under Elizabeth who embarked on a program of conquest and land grabs as empire began to be built. In more recent times Adolf Hitler decided Germany needed natural resources and thus began a land grab that all ended in tears because of interference from accross the Atlantic and the land grab aspirations from the Soviets which gave them most of E Europe and northeast Asia minor. Japan tried a massive land grab too thinking they could bring the entire Asian basin under the Rising Sun. The US did their land grab in the 19th Century when they removed Mexico from Texas and the natives from most of the continent. Canada hasn't bothered as they have too much land, too many resources, and hardly any people. Australia is the result of our land grab.

It is therefore a bit naive to think that the US is unique in the drive to secure resources for its people. The problem for the US is that they have taken the resources but instead of grabbing them, have paid for them which has caused the massive debt issues. All those trilloions that are owed is because of the goods and resources that have been paid for.

Some naively think the US has "grabbed" the Middleastern oil whereas, in reality, the Arabs have done very well out of US funds as evidenced by super cities, massive palaces for the thousands of "sheiks" and order books full with Astons, Bentleys and RRs etc. The "poor" Arabs have not done so well as their landowner masters trouser the wealth and try to get the ordinary people to blame the US for their plight. Little wonder the billioonaires that make up the house of Saud keep closely allied with the US rather than siding with Al Qaeda.

Chindia will need resources too. The Chinese are not natural land grabbers and Ghengis Khan was a Mongolian. But if China wants to grab land for resources they will do so and this is why Korea, Taiwan and Japan fear them and stick closely to the US. IN most resource grabs, the grabbers like Hitler, Stalin, Hirihito, King Philip of Spain, Ghenghis Khan do not pay for what they take, unlike the US which has paid dearly.

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The biggest proportional drop in consumption will be in the west but it is my belief people are under estimating the fragility of the emerging markets. I am not saying they will return from where they have come from but I think it is wrong to extrapolate their success from a period where the West has been throwing money at them in every way conceivable.

100% correct. I hold some Asian mutual funds in my retirement account and they are down 30% in 4 months and the recession is only just beginning in the US.

Chindia and the emerging markets are massively dependent on US and EU consumption. When it slows they will feel the draft, only it won't be a draft. More like a hurricane.

When America sneezes the world catches cold. Only this time America is getting the flu.

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The rapid growth of BRIC will soon transform into big freefalls. They will be thrashed into oblivion.

I don't understand. Could you add some detail, please.

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Hmmm. Many years of good World economic growth, a commodity boom, the world running out of resources. It's the 1970s all over again.

Oh feck, does that mean flares and dodgy perms are going to make a comeback!

beyonce-powers-400a0402.jpg

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  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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