HenryWeston Posted March 11, 2008 Share Posted March 11, 2008 but 50% across all housing? I can't quite see it. ... House prices tripled under labour, i think that was a surprise to most people to! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bazzzzzzz Posted March 11, 2008 Share Posted March 11, 2008 Hi,I didn't expect this so soon. 50% off is happening right now in London W3. kb I phoned the EA and they told me the property has never been listed for 270K and it was obviously an error. Yawn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Nice Posted March 11, 2008 Share Posted March 11, 2008 one of the biggest reasons to expect larger faster nominal price drops this time around is that there has been much higher multiple lending on salaries than in the past. if you buy a house for 5 times your salary and the market drops back down to the normal 3.5 times valuation, you can make the effort and eat it if you have to. many people did just that in HPC 1. this time around, the multiples were so high that people CAN'T afford to just eat it, since they don't have anything like the income necessary to service many of these mortgages. the was a much more complete decoupling of prices from reality this time around, so now that the music has stopped, those prices are likely to just tank instead of slowly winding down/being inflated away. especially since many of the homes, like the city center flats etc, were never really created for people to actually live in, they were basically creations of the boom. they were like little markers that people passed around making their profits on. without the boom to give them value, they have very little point at all. we would be much better off just bulldozing a lot of them, and getting it over with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qetesuesi Posted March 11, 2008 Share Posted March 11, 2008 It's impossible for prices NOT to collapse 50% since that would only bring houses down to fair (well if you consider 5x earnings fair) valuations. However there will be massive overshoot and 90% falls will be seen on average. Mainly because there won't be any mortgage lenders in the market for the average borrower in a few years time. Good gracious. If the AVERAGE fall is 90%, what will the GREATEST falls be like? 99%? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Downtraded Posted March 11, 2008 Share Posted March 11, 2008 How about this? A decade of inflation (3.5%) - House prices "drop" 2 % a year (compound). It only takes 6 years and everyone's a winner (except those who don't have a house!) It will be what everyone here doesn't want to believe - a soft landing in house prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikthe20 Posted March 11, 2008 Share Posted March 11, 2008 Surely we're looking for 50% off the peak actual sale price, not 50% off the even greater joke asking price? I'm seeing 10% falls off the asking prices locally, but that just seems to put them in line with the peak real selling prices achieved last Summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beans on toast Posted March 11, 2008 Share Posted March 11, 2008 I guess this is what KB was on abouthttp://www.propertysnake.co.uk/site/detail/11312381 The last flat sold on that road was 135K so i'm not buying that 50% drop. http://www.houseprices.co.uk/e.php?q=beechwood+grove+w3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crashman Begins Posted March 11, 2008 Share Posted March 11, 2008 1st 50 % drop in profit / equity prices.... then 50 % drop in actual house prices... values did go up 200% or something Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingsgate Posted March 11, 2008 Share Posted March 11, 2008 Do not trust propertysnake very far. Use the "propertybee" thingie and do your own survey of an area where you live, or are interested in. Even then, when you see a startlingly big drop in an area where you might not expect this - before you get too gloat-tastic! - check if it is real or not. Is it some sort of error? Is the program picking up a different property and assuming it is a big price drop on one already listed? Its not a shared ownership or other "funny" is it? Call the agent and check before giving everyone the benefit of another "Oh wow, 5 bed house in Fulham for £50,000" thread. Big price drops will happen - but spare us speculation and report only FACTS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Posted March 11, 2008 Share Posted March 11, 2008 Well I thought London and the SE would show the largest percentage drops , but just look at North Yorkshire 25-30% Drops and the prices up here are no where near as expensive... http://www.propertysnake.co.uk/site/location/1146 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ignorant Steve Posted March 11, 2008 Share Posted March 11, 2008 Well I thought London and the SE would show the largest percentage drops , but just look at North Yorkshire 25-30% Drops and the prices up here are no where near as expensive...http://www.propertysnake.co.uk/site/location/1146 Face it, most areas outside the SE only rose because of stupidity. These areas are ripe for a complete wipeout. What can you do in N Yorkshire? Farm mutton or slaughter pigs in Malton. Not a good reason for home prices to rise exponentially. IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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