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killerbee

50% Off Property Isn't Possible.

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Hi,

I didn't expect this so soon. 50% off is happening right now in London W3.

I occasionally look at propery snake just to monitor my local area - London W3, W5, W13, W7.

Discounts are shooting up and the crash has hardly begun.

kb

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Guest Steve Cook

I also agree that a 50% drop is now quite possible. How long will it take? Who knows, but I would be surpirsed if there has not been 20%-25% knocked off the average price by then end of this year alone.

Steve

Edited by Steve Cook

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Hi,

I didn't expect this so soon. 50% off is happening right now in London W3.

I occasionally look at propery snake just to monitor my local area - London W3, W5, W13, W7.

Discounts are shooting up and the crash has hardly begun.

kb

Hi KB,

Do you have any links? 50% off in London sounds incredible!

Even at the repossession auctions, very few areas ( eg Nottingham and other Midlands / Northern Cities new build flats ) are showing falls as high as 50%

Thanks

M21er

Edit: I don't disagree that prices will eventually fall by 50% ( more in places ) - I'm just surprised that 50% off in London is happening now

Edited by M21er

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Hi,

I didn't expect this so soon. 50% off is happening right now in London W3.

I occasionally look at propery snake just to monitor my local area - London W3, W5, W13, W7.

Discounts are shooting up and the crash has hardly begun.

kb

50% isnt realistic, unless its a high rise new build flat. You got any proof or is this just a dream you had ;-)

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As an STR's I'd like nothing better than a 50% nominal fall, but I'm not holding my breath.

I'm still thinking in terms of about a 40% real decline spread over three or four years, with about half that coming from nominal (ie actual) price falls, and the remainder coming from inflationary erosion. Similar in fact to the 1989-95 crash.

I'd agree that city centre new build flats may show sharper and faster falls; but unless unemployment shoots up then a decent three or four bed family house with a reasonable garden and good access to transport and amenities, will be as "sticky" in pricing terms as they've always been.

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The pic shown isn't the one that appears when you click on it. I got through to a sheltered housing studio. This would have been VASTLY overpriced, as these places always seem about 50% cheaper than standard flats of the same type, so the drop may not be crash-connected.

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It's impossible for prices NOT to collapse 50% since that would only bring houses down to fair (well if you consider 5x earnings fair) valuations. However there will be massive overshoot and 90% falls will be seen on average. Mainly because there won't be any mortgage lenders in the market for the average borrower in a few years time.

Edited by domo

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I'm still thinking in terms of about a 40% real decline spread over three or four years

That's the safe bet, it would sort of mirror what happened in the 90s. But I think there are some factors that point to much sharper, faster falls:

- The market is much more speculative than it was last time (think BTL)

- The margins used to speculate are much smaller (100%+ LTV, even more extreme than stock market speculation or leveraged hedge funds) so the participants are much more likely to sell quickly in a falling market

- Information flows much more quickly and rapidly. Think we are watching this crash in near real time! This would have been inconceivable in the 90s.

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As an STR's I'd like nothing better than a 50% nominal fall, but I'm not holding my breath.

I'm still thinking in terms of about a 40% real decline spread over three or four years, with about half that coming from nominal (ie actual) price falls, and the remainder coming from inflationary erosion. Similar in fact to the 1989-95 crash.

I'd agree that city centre new build flats may show sharper and faster falls; but unless unemployment shoots up then a decent three or four bed family house with a reasonable garden and good access to transport and amenities, will be as "sticky" in pricing terms as they've always been.

Agree with this.Prices are already 50% down on repossessed new build flats,but quality suburban properties are proving more sticky.If we repeat the last crash and it takes seven years* we are exactly on course for the 40% real drop you suggest,it doesn't have to get any faster than this.Crash started August 2007,whence it has fallen a real 3.5% or 7% annualised.Seven drops of 7% equals exactly a 40% drop.( negatives compound negatively and you don't get -49%)

*90(flat),91 -5%,92 -10%,93(flat),94(flat),95(flat),96(flat)

Edited by crashmonitor

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The pic shown isn't the one that appears when you click on it. I got through to a sheltered housing studio. This would have been VASTLY overpriced, as these places always seem about 50% cheaper than standard flats of the same type, so the drop may not be crash-connected.

On further investigation, this is a warden assisted flat for the over 55's. Which ever way you look at it, it is still a remarkable drop.

Drops of 20-30% seem to be occuring more frequently in the areas I have been monitoring.

kb

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A local estate agent is advertising somewhere at 50% off - but it doesn't take more than a split second to realise that it's actually shared equity!!!!

Edited by conifer

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Based on just ONE cycle of property values doubling every 9 years this property will be making you just over £14,827 A YEAR FROM DAY ONE.

Indeed! Why didn't we just think of that before! And then the small print...

No statement in these details is to be relied upon as representation of fact, and purchasers should satisfy themselves by inspection or otherwise as to the accuracy of the statements contained within.

Of well. But surely they are telling the truth. Everyone knows property only ever goes up...

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A search of the Ealing listings on Propertysnake shows that quite a few vendors in W3 (that's Acton, where I live) have drastically cut their asking prices recently:

http://www.propertysnake.co.uk/site/location/1012/1

Yes, exactly what I'm seeing and in other areas the discounts are on the up.

Resistance barrier is being broken we are entering the next phase, hold on to your hats.

kb

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A search of the Ealing listings on Propertysnake shows that quite a few vendors in W3 (that's Acton, where I live) have drastically cut their asking prices recently:

http://www.propertysnake.co.uk/site/location/1012/1

Oh my! And I thought Fulham was starting to look bad (up to 18%). It's interesting to note that the lower end of the market is the first to fall. I think that is what happened last time isn't it, low end followed by high end and the reverse when the market recorvered?

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House prices have basically tripled under Labour. If they now halve that would seem fairly restrained. Have you ever heard of a mountain being less steep on the downside than it was on the upside?

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House prices have basically tripled under Labour. If they now halve that would seem fairly restrained. Have you ever heard of a mountain being less steep on the downside than it was on the upside?

Well 50% wouldn't be particularly restrained IMO, e.g. 100K -(+200%)--> 300K -(-50%)--> 150K. So that would be, err, around 50% increase on original price in 10 years - and as 1997 prices were arguably low per long-term trend, I'd say sudden drops of 50% could be categorized as catastrophic for most recent buyers, causing widespread negative equity and economic chaos.

Not that I don't think prices will crash, I reckon a big ~25% correction in the next year, but 50% across all housing? I can't quite see it. For one thing, while some distressed sellers might have to sell (or inheritance sales etc), a significant proportion of owners simply cannot possibly afford to sell so far below the mortgage debt. There'd be no way to finance the shortfall save by bankrupcy, which many will avoid like the plague. We haven't got the easier access to jingle-mail the the US homeowners have... :unsure:

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  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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