Prices Still Rising In Scotland

[roblpm]

Radio 5 (I think, or was it radio 4, I was half asleep) reporting RICS survey this morning!!

[Gone baby gone]

Fill yer boots, there's never been a better time to buy...

[FriendsofDerek]

Fill yer boots, there's never been a better time to buy...

Houses near me still selling if not overpriced. Very few offers over and mainly fixed price. ( West Glasgow Area)

Quite a lot of for sale signs popping up over the last few weeks.

I'm surprised that its rising though as most of the prices seem to be the same or less than last year.

[roblpm]

Only trouble is for buying that this sort of thing fuels the general opinion in scotland that prices never go down!

[dances with sheeple]

Only trouble is for buying that this sort of thing fuels the general opinion in scotland that prices never go down!

People can see with their own eyes though, that for sale signs are up for months and months and months. The days of queuing to buy new builds, and offers over silly money for tenement flats are behind us. Fixed price is the last defiant statement from greedy people who have not taken the time to ponder the concept of a "market". Scotland will be a wipeout without cheap plentiful credit.

[Gone baby gone]

In general Scotland hasn't gone up as much as many other parts of the UK, so the crash will be less pronounced. Many sections of Edinburgh and Glasgow likely to be toast though. Especially city-centre flats!

[dances with sheeple]

In general Scotland hasn't gone up as much as many other parts of the UK, so the crash will be less pronounced. Many sections of Edinburgh and Glasgow likely to be toast though. Especially city-centre flats!

Many types of property in my opinion will halve at least in price. That will make a serious impression on the minds of the sheeple. We could be in for wake up time as far as overhauling the political and financial systems.

[mosstrooper]

In general Scotland hasn't gone up as much as many other parts of the UK, so the crash will be less pronounced. Many sections of Edinburgh and Glasgow likely to be toast though. Especially city-centre flats!

you are a building society / VI and i claim my £5.

so houses are cheap in scotland. i sold mine at 300% increase. the argument that scotland has not gone up the same is false and vested interest propaganda. One minute scotland is skint and cant support itself, the next they are loaded and house prices can keep going up. i'm confused.

its the same old vi rubbish spouted up north. they will crash the same as the rest of the western hemisphere.

[Gone baby gone]

you are a building society / VI and i claim my £5.

so houses are cheap in scotland. i sold mine at 300% increase. the argument that scotland has not gone up the same is false and vested interest propaganda. One minute scotland is skint and cant support itself, the next they are loaded and house prices can keep going up. i'm confused.

its the same old vi rubbish spouted up north. they will crash the same as the rest of the western hemisphere.

No, I am merely pointing out that many areas of Scotland (outside of Edinburgh, Glasgow & Aberdeen) have not seen the same levels of increase due to HPI, so will therefore not see the same downside. The level of 'froth' in prices (i.e. how many times they are higher than local average salary multiple) is a good guide to acceptable pricing. Now, some areas of Scotland have been pushed too far by holiday home buyers, specuvestors, etc. but the level of distortion is not close to somewhere like Greater London, or even the outskirts of Edinburgh.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not bullish on Scotland's housing market. I would say everywhere in Scotland will lose at least 25-30%, but Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen will see falls of 50%+...

Edited March 11, 2008 by redalert

[Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable]

'They dunnae goo doon wu Broon!'

[Gone baby gone]

'They dunnae goo doon wu Broon!'

Like it, like it - when will the t-shirts be available?

[beans on toast]

Radio 5 (I think, or was it radio 4, I was half asleep) reporting RICS survey this morning!!

They were probably referring to the RICS survey which was released today, which reported rising prices for Scotland.

[dances with sheeple]

No, I am merely pointing out that many areas of Scotland (outside of Edinburgh, Glasgow & Aberdeen) have not seen the same levels of increase due to HPI, so will therefore not see the same downside. The level of 'froth' in prices (i.e. how many times they are higher than local average salary multiple) is a good guide to acceptable pricing. Now, some areas of Scotland have been pushed too far by holiday home buyers, specuvestors, etc. but the level of distortion is not close to somewhere like Greater London, or even the outskirts of Edinburgh.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not bullish on Scotland's housing market. I would say everywhere Scotland will lose at least 25-30%, but Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen will see falls of 50%+...

Talking of Edinburgh, does the "Save Meadowbank" campaign strike anyone as strange? No developer in their right mind is going to buy Meadowbank now for housing development, surely? Are the sheeple too thick or too high on steroids to know any better, or is this a well orchestrated VI ploy?

[Agentimmo]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not bullish on Scotland's housing market. I would say everywhere in Scotland will lose at least 25-30%, but Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen will see falls of 50%+...

Agree. I was back on the west coast last summer. When you see a 1 bed flat in Saltcoats or Irvine on sale for the same as in Cannes, then you know there's a problem/bubble/big crash a coming

[Guest Skint Academic]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not bullish on Scotland's housing market. I would say everywhere in Scotland will lose at least 25-30%, but Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen will see falls of 50%+...

I've been looking long and hard at the prices of the houses in the highlands and I reckon that if you take into account the local wage, then even a 50% drop still makes houses really difficult to buy. Places like Perthshire may not fall as much because they have good access to nearby cities and towns, but Sutherland? It's the second homers and speculators that have pushed up these prices and these properties are sold before the primary residences are. Mr Academic and I are now carefully watching the prices, to see how far it will fall and for how long.

We were hoping that an offer made out of the blue on the house that my parents rent out would give us an alternative source to borrow from, but the guy is now trying to gazunder my parents so we may have to emigrate after all. The chance of getting back to the highlands is the only thing keeping us in the UK.

[Gone baby gone]

I've been looking long and hard at the prices of the houses in the highlands and I reckon that if you take into account the local wage, then even a 50% drop still makes houses really difficult to buy. Places like Perthshire may not fall as much because they have good access to nearby cities and towns, but Sutherland? It's the second homers and speculators that have pushed up these prices and these properties are sold before the primary residences are. Mr Academic and I are now carefully watching the prices, to see how far it will fall and for how long.

We were hoping that an offer made out of the blue on the house that my parents rent out would give us an alternative source to borrow from, but the guy is now trying to gazunder my parents so we may have to emigrate after all. The chance of getting back to the highlands is the only thing keeping us in the UK.

If you really want to live there, just sit it out. The best guide to 'real' prices is definitely a local wage multiple of 3.5 or 4. When prices have been inflated by Londoners investing the spoils of their MEWing, etc. the prices will tank over the next 2 or 3 years.

I think the central belt in Scotland: Perth, Dundee, Falkirk, etc. is the area least affected by silly speculation. I think the trick is to find somewhere you can still be reasonably close to a source of jobs, etc. but far enough away from the gravity of Edinburgh and Glasgow that you don't end up competing with banzai commuters. The only reason we bought is because we had the money to buy outright because we sold our flat in London to some idiot BTLer.

[Guest anorthosite]

Property Bee is showing an interesting stat more and more. The asking price may be going up by a little, but they're usually changing from "Offers over" to a fixed price. So they may appear to be going up, but in reality, they're coming down.

Oh, and loads are coming down. I've only seen some flats in Inverness go up, but the tourist hot spots of Callendar and Aberfeldy have seen some nice 5-10% drops in the last few weeks.

[Guest An Bearin Bui]

This really spoilt the RICS report for me. Now we can all look forward to pages of drooling, ecstatic coverage in the Scotsman screaming that the boom is still on in Scotland and "prices will never fall here because they never have, prices will never fall here because they never have, prices will never fall here..." etc etc etc ad nauseam...

I'm not particularly bothered about buying here myself but I am bothered by the insufferable smugness of most owners up here who are convinced that their property is a goldmine, that they've made a one-way surefire bet and only England will see significant price falls. Morons...

[Bardon]

It's the second homers and speculators that have pushed up these prices and these properties are sold before the primary residences are. Mr Academic and I are now carefully watching the prices, to see how far it will fall and for how long.

We were hoping that an offer made out of the blue on the house that my parents rent out would give us an alternative source to borrow from, but the guy is now trying to gazunder my parents so we may have to emigrate after all. The chance of getting back to the highlands is the only thing keeping us in the UK.

Second homes the Wee But and Ben

You need to be prepared to wait a wee bit before buying if you are not prepared to wait a couple of years then emigrate now, where are you thinking of going ?

[Shiney]

Had a long conversation with a recently retired Edinburgh solicitor over the weekend who was convinced prices would never fall in Edinburgh. Too much money about.....

[Gone baby gone]

Had a long conversation with a recently retired Edinburgh solicitor over the weekend who was convinced prices would never fall in Edinburgh. Too much money about.....

Yet central London was badly hit by the last crash, including areas where the residents aren't short of a bob or two.

[Timil]

Stagnation, Soft Landing etc etc, thats all you hear up here.

Now that the Silly Darn Saff money has dried up, prices will fall hard and fast back to reality.

[Guest Skint Academic]

Second homes the Wee But and Ben

You need to be prepared to wait a wee bit before buying if you are not prepared to wait a couple of years then emigrate now, where are you thinking of going ?

We've been dithering between emigrating to Germany (my dad is German and my parents will be retiring there) and waiting here for another 18 months before moving to the highlands. Mr Academic and I have moved into my parents house in the south of England, into my old bedroom (at the age of 33!). Everything's a bit cramped *ahem*. It got to the stage where we just couldn't afford to move house again, get ripped off by amateur BTL'ers and still be skint after working and commuting all day long.

So the question is, where do we move from here? Germany or the highlands? Trouble is that my parents could well retire this year, and when they do, they won't be able to afford the council tax on this place. There's still lots of work from the London Olympics and so my dad doesn't want to retire, but his health is failing and he should have retired long ago.

Ultimately we want to settle down in the highlands, but I've waited this long, I don't want to buy when the market still has a long way to fall, and I'd prefer to avoid the recession (especially as I never got to enjoy the 'boom'). But at least we have our freedom and don't have anything to lose, unlike most people. Plus side is that being an academic it should open up plenty of jobs for mearound the world, except that I am at the beginning of my career and don't really have many publications to my name yet. Also, my partner doesn't speak German and still has debts from university which we need to pay off, so it would be difficult for him to get a job in Germany. I have enough German that I could get by.

So questions such as deflation or hyper-inflation, how long the crash will take, how much it will fall by and how bad the recession will be are rather more important for figuring out where to go and what to do. Ultimately though we'll just have to take whatever opportunities come up.

[Shiney]

Yet central London was badly hit by the last crash, including areas where the residents aren't short of a bob or two.

Seems to be very much business as usual. Nice properties here in East Lothian are still selling..... and fast.

One BTL landlord I know of has sold up two flats in the central belt to reinvest in Edinburgh. The assumption being that if there's a slowdown in less desirable areas, property prices will only ever go up in the capital.

Incredible.

[Muswell Hillbilly]

Had a long conversation with a recently retired Edinburgh solicitor over the weekend who was convinced prices would never fall in Edinburgh. Too much money about.....

Average price of a 2-bed flat in Marchmont/Bruntsfield in Q4 2007: £252,860 (from ESPC)

Monthly payment on repayment mortgage at 6% on 90% LTV over 25 years: £1,466.26

Monthly payment on interest-only mortgage at 6% on 90% LTV over 25 years: £1,137.87

Monthly rent (from first-hand observation and advertisements): £725–800

Given figures like this, I don’t see how properties like this can fail to crash.

Also note that the Q4 2007 average sale price is already down from peaks of £274,659 in Q1 2007 and £270,780 in Q3 2007, all according to the ESPC figures.