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Yes, I Know Now Is Not The Time To Buy...

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Missus and I were looking to upgrade last year Oct, as we were expecting a new child in Dec (turned out to be an x-mas baby!). Obviously the timing for buying a new home was not right - I tried to sell and STR, but that's another story... ;)

Anyway, since following the market in Surrey, several homes that i had my eye on have dropped by 5% to 10% already. The most was from £500k to £420k (in 6 months!!). My point is: The housing market is not as "real-time" as the stock market, where you can follow the trend much closer and call the bottom. Most of the published housing stats are based on months old data and even then they are distorted (e.g. not taking reductions into account).

Moreover, each sale is an individual transaction and not directly linked to market (yes, i know about the sheeple and all that, but bear with me for the sake of comparing the housing market to the stock market). So, is it not just a matter of submitting an offer 20% below asking and if you are lucky, buy the house now. Odds are that after months of refusing to see the reality the vendor will eventually not drop more than that anyway.

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Guest The_Oldie
Missus and I were looking to upgrade last year Oct, as we were expecting a new child in Dec (turned out to be an x-mas baby!). Obviously the timing for buying a new home was not right - I tried to sell and STR, but that's another story... ;)

Anyway, since following the market in Surrey, several homes that i had my eye on have dropped by 5% to 10% already. The most was from £500k to £420k (in 6 months!!). My point is: The housing market is not as "real-time" as the stock market, where you can follow the trend much closer and call the bottom. Most of the published housing stats are based on months old data and even then they are distorted (e.g. not taking reductions into account).

Moreover, each sale is an individual transaction and not directly linked to market (yes, i know about the sheeple and all that, but bear with me for the sake of comparing the housing market to the stock market). So, is it not just a matter of submitting an offer 20% below asking and if you are lucky, buy the house now. Odds are that after months of refusing to see the reality the vendor will eventually not drop more than that anyway.

As was the case with holders of dotcom shares in 2000.

Many dotcoms were AIM companies and were not easy to sell. The smarter investors sold quickly for whatever they could get, the remainder saw their shares reduce to virtually nothing. Of course, the really smart money was long gone.

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As was the case with holders of dotcom shares in 2000.

Many dotcoms were AIM companies and were not easy to sell. The smarter investors sold quickly for whatever they could get, the remainder saw their shares reduce to virtually nothing. Of course, the smart money was long gone.

Good analogy, TO, you have addressed my key point: With the dotcom boom the actual value of some of the stock was virtually null ... and eventually they reached that point :P

What is the "actual value", the resitance if you wish, of the housing market? Surely not 10% of current value (a la dot com)? If it is, say 80% of current (perceived) value, then why not offer that price now, hoping to find someone desparate enough to sell now.

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Guest The_Oldie
Good analogy, TO, you have addressed my key point: With the dotcom boom the actual value of some of the stock was virtually null ... and eventually they reached that point :P

What is the "actual value", the resitance if you wish, of the housing market? Surely not 10% of current value (a la dot com)? If it is, say 80% of current (perceived) value, then why not offer that price now, hoping to find someone desparate enough to sell now.

Because I believe it's more like 60%.

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Missus and I were looking to upgrade last year Oct, as we were expecting a new child in Dec (turned out to be an x-mas baby!). Obviously the timing for buying a new home was not right - I tried to sell and STR, but that's another story... ;)

Anyway, since following the market in Surrey, several homes that i had my eye on have dropped by 5% to 10% already. The most was from £500k to £420k (in 6 months!!). My point is: The housing market is not as "real-time" as the stock market, where you can follow the trend much closer and call the bottom. Most of the published housing stats are based on months old data and even then they are distorted (e.g. not taking reductions into account).

Moreover, each sale is an individual transaction and not directly linked to market (yes, i know about the sheeple and all that, but bear with me for the sake of comparing the housing market to the stock market). So, is it not just a matter of submitting an offer 20% below asking and if you are lucky, buy the house now. Odds are that after months of refusing to see the reality the vendor will eventually not drop more than that anyway.

Congratulations on the new sprog. Houses are, as you say, very different to stocks - even the most liquid houses (e.g. some city centre flats, probably not new-build ones) trade less often than the most illiquid stocks (crappy stuff no-one's ever heard of on AIM or whatever).

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i recommend at least 20-30% below market selling price, the asking price is normally 20% above the market selling price. But yes its possible, see my signature... you should be aiming to put offers to struggling sellers at 30->50% off...

Edited by moosetea

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  • 296 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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