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TheCountOfNowhere

Does Anyone Doubt The Hpc Is Well Underway ?

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I am 100% convinced we are in the biggest HPC the world has ever know.

Edit: Has the HPC started yes/no

I say: YES !!!

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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I am 100% convinced we are in the biggest HPC the world has ever know.

Ponzi was an amateur compared to the current banking system.

Do you agree ?

Yep, we're there.

Anyone who's borrowed money to buy multiple properties in the last couple of years will lose their shirt.

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Yep, we're there.

Anyone who's borrowed money to buy multiple properties in the last couple of years will lose their shirt.

Shirt.House.Life.Arms.Legs.Car.Dog.Wifie.Wifi.Sky.Sky+.Sky HD. Ponzi's taking it all.

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Bit like my kids in the back of the car ........... Are we there yet ? Are we there yet ? Are we there yet ?

Patience young Grasshopper. HPC comes to all who wait ..... :mellow:

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Bit like my kids in the back of the car ........... Are we there yet ? Are we there yet ? Are we there yet ?

Patience young Grasshopper. HPC comes to all who wait ..... :mellow:

Good Point, my poll is more...do you think it's started and there is an unstoppable momentum now driving the HPC forward/down.

We are a loooong way from the bottom, thats for sure, but i'm certain it's started and i'm enjoying watching each and every HPI coffin nail being hammered in.

So, dont vote on "have we crashed" but "are you sure the HPC has started"....

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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I voted yes because the HPC clearly has started. There may be a short plateau over the next couple of months (rather than a 'spring bounce') but the downward pressures on the market are now overwhelming. By the summer, I'm expecting some quite substantial falls.

The problem with this poll though is that we're a bit of a self-selecting sample on this forum, aren't we?

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The problem with this poll though is that we're a bit of a self-selecting sample on this forum, aren't we?

true, but 30% say no!!!!

I'd be interested in some posts from someone who voted no to see why they think it's noy started.

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Can the 9 people who've voted "No" please make themselves known? I'd like to ask you the same question in a month's time after we've seen the Halifax and Nationwide figures for March (i.e. the month where seasonal adjusting switches to negative).

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true, but 30% say no!!!!

I'd be interested in some posts from someone who voted no to see why they think it's noy started.

They could be answering the question in the topic title instead? i.e. No, I don't doubt that it's started.

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Are we there yet?

No not yet - at least down on the South Coast.

Still witnessing a lot of property hitting the market at higher prices than last year.

Will take a bit longer for an HPC to hit here I think - what with the retiring pensioners propping up the area.

There is a lot of stale property not selling but hanging around for months - unfortunately this is the crap end which most people wouldn't normally touch with a barge pole!

Edited by Shamus

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Bit like my kids in the back of the car ........... Are we there yet ? Are we there yet ? Are we there yet ?

Patience young Grasshopper. HPC comes to all who wait ..... :mellow:

Stop the car I need a wee its all too exciting for me.

It's too late,

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Ok Paddles, I'll put up my hands to a no vote.

Although I am a miserable bear who fears the worst, in my neck of the woods we are still teetering on the run up to HPC. I dare say the attitude is bullish. They will learn in time...

A lot of the properties we looked round last October are flipper amateur dev houses (for the record we obviously weren't going to line their pockets as they were done on the cheap and mostly where they'd planted a second house in the back garden of an old property - awful).

They all remain on the market today with the same price tag. Whether they'd come down a bit in price on offers now I can't say, but there's no obvious crashing or even reductions started yet.

My location is top secret but suffice it to say it's a little town on the end of a London tube line.

TFH

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Can the 9 people who've voted "No" please make themselves known? I'd like to ask you the same question in a month's time after we've seen the Halifax and Nationwide figures for March (i.e. the month where seasonal adjusting switches to negative).

I took the question "are we there yet" and applied it to B & H, so hands up. It is very very slow and the local VI's are pulling out all the stops. Here is an excellent description, thanks to CastroGTX.

Turning the property market is like turning a tanker. In Brighton the tanker has stopped and is not welcome at the Marina and has now reversed towards Hove lagoon. The fact that it will not fit there hasn't stopped it and a tidal wave will eventually break across Brighton and H. This will happen at the beginning of May - the market will falter and die over the next 18 months.

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Are we there yet?

No not yet - at least down on the South Coast.

Still witnessing a lot of property hitting the market at higher prices than last year.

[......................]

There is a lot of stale property not selling but hanging around for months - unfortunately this is the crap end which most people wouldn't normally touch with a barge pole!

I don't think this is inconsistent with a crash. It does seem that a lot of retired or soon to retire folks are looking to cash in on their nest egg. As a result a lot of more expensive properties have hit the market, this does of course raise average asking prices. If you had 10 homes at £200,000 the average is £200,0000, suddenly an 11th homes at £1m comes onto the market, and presto the average asking price is £273k.

I created another post pointing out that there are over 1500 homes in Surrey on for over £1m. I strongly believe there will not be 1500 people currently looking to buy in that bracket. Result asking average up, but selling average down as nothing sells and homes go stale.

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I don't think this is inconsistent with a crash. It does seem that a lot of retired or soon to retire folks are looking to cash in on their nest egg. As a result a lot of more expensive properties have hit the market, this does of course raise average asking prices. If you had 10 homes at £200,000 the average is £200,0000, suddenly an 11th homes at £1m comes onto the market, and presto the average asking price is £273k.

I created another post pointing out that there are over 1500 homes in Surrey on for over £1m. I strongly believe there will not be 1500 people currently looking to buy in that bracket. Result asking average up, but selling average down as nothing sells and homes go stale.

That is how I see it, more and more £800 to £1m property on the market, we have reached the peak...there is no more growth to be made...the debt is costing more each day...how many rooms do you need to live in?

Sell if you can...take what is offered and run. ;)

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Guest muttley

The Haliwide going YOY negative will be big news. It will be hard for the VI's to talk the market up after that. (Not that it will stop them trying).

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I voted the first no.

Do I think prices are starting to drop ~ Yes.

Do I think you can call this the crash yet? ~ No.

I know i'm on a roller coaster, I can see the front carriage going over the top, however i'm sat at the back and i'm still not moving as fast as I know i'm going to be and I don't hear any screaming yet . . . . .

As me again in July/August

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A crash is like a volcano. You can see and even measure the forces building up toward an explosion. You know it will happen soon. But no one can pinpoint the exact timing.

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Here in Berkshire on the face of it you would not think so, houses are still selling. However Property Bee has shown something interesting - lower price houses in the sub 300K range are showing price cuts. The higher price homes aren't registering any drops - either the sellers are not desperate to move or they haven't accepted a falling market yet.

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Up until a couple of years ago I lived in South Manchester.

Went back there this morning and the sheer volume of For Let and For Sale boards astonished me. Parts of Hulme and Whalley Range are plastered with them.

And, the really funny thing is, there are thousands of flats still nearing completion!

The crash has started and is now unstoppable.

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In answer to the question "Are we there yet?" In my area the answer is no - although the market elastic has stretched as far as it's going to, it is currently poised at the furthest point of travel prior to hurtling back again.

So not yet - but nearly!

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I voted yes, but I could have easily voted no - given the question.

I do believe that what will happen over the coming months will be the largest proportional (and likely absolute) downturn in house prices that we will experience in our lifetimes.

I don't think that it is "well underway" - as I think there is a lot more yet to come. I've seen 5% discounts on asking prices - which is a move in the right direction... but not a crash. I can see really ominous signs for employment, but relatively few are unemployed... I see a tiny number of properties changing hands for preposterous sums.

I think that mass sentiment has turned and that a correction of unprecedented scale is almost upon us.

I'm ready for Act 1, Scene 2.

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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