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The "irish House Hunter" Report Sweepstake


Vespasian
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The more I look at these reports the more I feel that prices at RV (for me anyway) no longer represent value. Loads of houses in my target market are at or below RV and still aren’t selling. What I am getting is that the Belfast market, especially those built from 2000 onwards, the usual BT9/tempelton crowd and the new build apartments are living in La La Land. The majority in my mind has absolutely zero chance of selling anywhere near RV.

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The more I look at these reports the more I feel that prices at RV (for me anyway) no longer represent value. Loads of houses in my target market are at or below RV and still aren’t selling. What I am getting is that the Belfast market, especially those built from 2000 onwards, the usual BT9/tempelton crowd and the new build apartments are living in La La Land. The majority in my mind has absolutely zero chance of selling anywhere near RV.

About -20% RV for the right house on the right site is my target. That takes us back to Q1 2003 nominal prices equating to Q2 2000 real prices when the affordability ratio in NI was 2.9. Look for distressed sales now coming on at around RV or lower and make the -20% bid - someone will bite your hand off eventually. So you probably have to spend 10% or so for some updating but most of us spend some money on a new house anyway no matter what condition it's in just to make it our own.

Some people have questioned the RV process, claiming that it's unreliable and that mistakes were made. Examine their motives and what you mostly find is a smoke and mirrors strategy to cover up an over-valued asking price. Yes there were probably some mistakes made, only to be expected in any human endeavour, but I think you can safely count on the fact that in the vaste majority of cases they got it about right.

-20% RV should cushion most of the continued falls that can be expected over the next 2-3 years, but getting in now means you and your family get settled quicker, gets a couple of years off the mortgage and should get you a free run at what's coming on now (go for best areas and largest plot sizes) before the rest of the herd realise that we've pretty muched reached a nominal bottom.

My advice for what it's worth but do your own research based on the data and don't listen to the spin from the VI 'experts' - they couldn't pick the top and they've been calling a bottom ever since.

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I'm flattered, thankyou.

As always fantastic stuff. You really have made me think about the analytical approach I need to take when thinking about when to buy. I think sometimes we (me mostly) can get into the habit of reciting the same old “prices will fall” mantra. I know they’re not going to go up for a long time yet but I want to maximise my hard earned cash by buying as close to the bottom as possible.

15% falls this year and the deposit is growing.

1 million drops for me please.

Or 600 instead please Doccy.

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Do what I do -- take a note of the EA and mark "delusional" against his name. That way you will not be led astray by him if you feel the urge to visit one of his properties.

Don't think the Estate Agents can fully be blamed - it is also vendors, banks and the government. Always have the urge to visit the house and ask the vendors why the think their house is worth 50% more than 2005 values but don't want to give them false hope. Have made bids on houses that have been repossessed but been told the banks will not accept bids unless it reaches a certain level. Not going to give the banks a penny more of my money than i have to. Obviously the government are supporting prices until the housing market returns to "normal". Low interests on mortgages and virtually nothing for savers.

From my calculations I am about £200 per month better off renting than buying so i can keep them waiting!!

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