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Us Nonfarm Payroll Figures

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found this on cnbc

Today's jobs report is unlikely to offer a ray of hope amid the gloom over the U.S. economy, as beyond the figures' volatility the trend for falling employment is quite clear, analysts said.

When data comes out at 8:30 am New York time, it will shed more light on how bad the situation has become, at a time when there are fewer and fewer weapons to fight recession.

"In this slowdown, we have barely had any decline in employment," ING Bank analyst Rob Carnell wrote in a market research note.

"The bulk of the real macro downturn could lie ahead of us – a pity for the Fed, with only 300 basis points of potential easing left in the barrel," Carnell added.

The forecasts vary wildly, with the market consensus put by Reuters at a rise of 25,000 in monthly nonfarm payrolls in February from January's surprise 17,000 drop.

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Analysts in the Reuters poll predicted anywhere between a fall of 110,000 and a rise of 100,000, but only a very positive figure would cheer up investors.

Downward Revisions

January's weaker-than-expected data is likely to be revised but even so, "despite the notorious volatility in the monthly numbers, the trend is clearly downwards and we expect this to continue over this year," Bank of Scotland analysts wrote in a market note.

"We've started the week with minus 15,000 but the data forced us to revise it down," Daragh Maher, from Calyon, told "Worldwide Exchange" adding that he was now expecting a 40,000 fall in the payrolls number.

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ING Bank analysts forecast that the payroll number will fall by 50,000, saying that the big discrepancy between January's strong ADP figure of +119,000 may lead to an upward revision of the nonfarm payroll figure.

"This will make it much easier for this month's payrolls to come in negatively," Carnell said.

Earlier this week, a report from ADP Employer Services showed U.S. private companies shed 23,000 jobs in February. Although the ADP report does not accurately predict the payroll number, the figure contributed to general pessimism about the labor market.

The unemployment figure, due to be released at the same time, is expected to rise to 5 percent, as firms have been reluctant to hire people due to the uncertainties hanging over the economy.

© 2008 CNBC.com

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found this on cnbc

This is just the start of a depression that will make the 1930s look like a walk in the park. This time there will be not even be the hope of an escape from the financial dustbowl by walking to California. The books written about this depression by future generations will make the Grapes of Wrath seem like a cheerful children's book by comparison.

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This is just the start of a depression that will make the 1930s look like a walk in the park. This time there will be not even be the hope of an escape from the financial dustbowl by walking to California. The books written about this depression by future generations will make the Grapes of Wrath seem like a cheerful children's book by comparison.

quality post by my new favourite poster :blink:

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quality post by my new favourite poster :blink:

I like his/her style (his, I bet), but at the moment, I think that it's very much painting a picture (a grim picture, but in a beautiful way). We still need to see whether there's any substance behind the brush strokes.

And what is the meaning of Arcadia?

The word Arcadia has become a poetic idylism meaning "Utopia."

Peter.

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63k loss of jobs and unemployment rate down :blink:

1. suddenly more people are not fit for work or

2. people have suddenly retired or got younger below working age

3. there are boats leaving the motherland with lots of people on them

4. theyve fudged the figures

5. i dont understand how the numbers work

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63k loss of jobs and unemployment rate down :blink:

1. suddenly more people are not fit for work or

2. people have suddenly retired or got younger below working age

3. there are boats leaving the motherland with lots of people on them

4. theyve fudged the figures

5. i dont understand how the numbers work

Different surveys - the payrolls number comes from asking companies, the uinemployment number comes from asking households. They survey a much higher proportion of the economy in the payrolls survey, but it doesn't capture new companies or casual labour etc...

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from yahoo

Employers Slash Jobs by Most in 5 Years

Friday March 7, 8:40 am ET

By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer

Employers Slash 63,000 Jobs in February, Most in 5 Years, Feeding Recession Fears

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Employers slashed jobs by 63,000 in February, the most in five years, the starkest sign yet the country is heading dangerously toward recession or is in one already.

The Labor Department's report, released Friday, also showed that the nation's unemployment rate dipped to 4.8 percent as hundreds of thousands of people -- perhaps discouraged by their prospects -- left the civilian labor force. The jobless rate was 4.9 percent in January.

Job losses were widespread, with hefty cuts coming from construction, manufacturing, retailing and a variety of professional and business services. Those losses swamped gains elsewhere including education and health care, leisure and hospitality, and the government.

The latest snapshot of the nation's employment climate underscored the heavy toll of the housing and credit crises on companies, jobseekers and the overall economy.

The report also showed that the job losses suffered in January were worse than the government first reported. Employers cut 22,000 jobs, versus 17,000.

It was the first monthly back-to-back job losses since May and June 2003, when the job market was still struggling to recover from the blows of the 2001 recession.

The health of the nation's job market is a critical factor shaping how the overall economy fares. If companies continue to cut back on hiring, that will spell even more trouble.

Friday's report was much weaker than economists were expecting. They were forecasting employers to boost payrolls by around 25,000. However, they were expecting the jobless rate to edge up to 5 percent. The reason why the jobless rate went down, rather than up, is because so many people stopped looking for work and left the labor force.

Workers with jobs, however, saw modest wage gains.

Average hourly earnings for jobholders rose to $17.80 in February, a 0.3 percent increase from the previous month. That was on target with economists' forecasts. Over the last 12 months, wages were up 3.7 percent. With high energy and food prices, though, workers may feel squeezed and feel like their paychecks aren't stretching that far.

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63k loss of jobs and unemployment rate down :blink:

1. suddenly more people are not fit for work or

2. people have suddenly retired or got younger below working age

3. there are boats leaving the motherland with lots of people on them

4. theyve fudged the figures

5. i dont understand how the numbers work

IIRC, they count the same way as here - 6 months "unemployed" and then you fall off their register, becoming "economically inactive" or some such cant. Incidentally, I was told by an ex-DHSS staff member, they don't actually count. They submit an estimate......

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why does it take the ftse100 5 minutes to work out these are sh'ite figures? up, down, up, down and now finally through the floor. do some traders just close their eyes when they press the 'trade' button?

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HSBC have revised there FED target to 1 per cent and unemployment rate to 6.6 per cent for 2009 after these numbers.

Edited by Gremlin

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why does it take the ftse100 5 minutes to work out these are sh'ite figures? up, down, up, down and now finally through the floor. do some traders just close their eyes when they press the 'trade' button?

The numbers aren't as bad as they could have been

Yesterday's sell-off was in advance of bad numbers

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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