switters Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 I think what has been propping up the Dow for so long is about to collapse. By rights the Dow should have dropped 10% more but it has been prevented by the devaluation of the dollar. However, Bernanke has nowhere further to go with Interest rates and there are no fundamentals holding the Dow up. I reckon it's going to drop below the magic 12 000 level in the next 2 weeks and stay there. That will drag the FTSE down into Bear territory too. Psychologically that will spook anyone who knows anything about stock markets. By mid may ostriches will still be carping on about the resilience of the UK economy and everyone else will be shitting it. Then finally some sanity might return to the housing market, at the expense of an awful lot of poverty.... ...sadly I think this will actually be good for the country in a horrible cathartic way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cognitive dissonance Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 maybe not today though, unemployment claims are down, we're all saved! anyway I'm sure I read somewhere here about a financial planner saying it was going to 15000!! quick buy buy buy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RajD Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 I agree. It might break 12,000 today unless another Ambac rescue story, or some other chestnut is rolled out again just as it starts flirting with 12k. Do not underestimate the stupidity of our Wall Street friends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 (edited) I think this is right. Warren Buffett said recently that stocks will be a good thing. Future tense noted. Ben has nowhere to go is also right. He has discovered that the more he cuts the worse things get--including oil and real IR as evidenced by the soaring mortgage rates recently. He has discovered the Greenspan conundrum* in reverse. My bet on the Fed is that they will do nothing. They can do nothing. The house prices will have to fall and the soacial consequences will follow as they must. The worst mistake Merv can make is thinking that its different here. The worst mistake Ben can make is to make things slightly worse by lowering the Fed rate which will impact the US$, OIL, the depth of the coming world recession/depression and confidence. ITMT 5500 on the FTSE by Friday? FTSE 100 (FSI:^FTSE) Index Value: 5,776.40 Trade Time: 3:37PM Change: 77.10 (1.32%) Prev Close: 5,853.50 Open: 5,853.50 Day's Range: 5,766.60 - 5,871.10 52wk Range: 5,338.70 - 6,751.70 ______________________ * During the HPI years Greenspan introduced a long series of hikes that were met with an equally lng series of cuts in commercial rates for all kinds of loans. The more he hiked the more people could borrow and borrow they did until credit ran out. Greenspan called this pehnomena a "conundrum" because it didn't make sense. His successor may have just discovered the conundrum effect going the other way which may have been hinted at during his last speech to the retail banker's association in Florida. Ben hinted that there was no more anyone could do. Edited March 6, 2008 by Realistbear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
switters Posted March 6, 2008 Author Share Posted March 6, 2008 Interesting day on the dow. There's not going to be much around to stop it dropping below 12 000 tomorrow now! I think the FTSE will take a battering 2mrw too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr House Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Switters - you are spot on here. Tomorrow we have non farm payroll data which last time sent an almighty shudder through the markets. If the figures disappoint, let alone shock, we may well have Black Friday....... Shoot below 12000 before the PPT have had breakfast, and then on down.... Financial Advisors on here however predict 12700 and upwards very soon. Stockman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theblacksheeple Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Black Friday anyone? Citi group’s news could have interesting consiquences Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest muttley Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Black Friday anyone? Citi group’s news could have interesting consiquences Why? What is it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InternationalRockSuperstar Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 thread title sounds like a cgnao job Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ted D. Bear Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 The news from the US continues to be unrelentingly gloomy: US households are getting poorer for the first time in more than five years, according to figures from the Federal Reserve.The Fed data on Wednesday showed total household wealth fell by $533bn to $57,718bn, as falling prices of shares and other securities added to the damage from falling house prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theblacksheeple Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Why? What is it? Facilities to allow funding for new loans to be reduced by 45 Billion for 2008. Or by 50% of 2007 totals. More write down? More lenders reducing loan to values both sides of the Atlantic? Lower income multiples? The list of potential first and second round effects goes on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 World's richest people list was out today. Methinks Buffet pulled out of the monoline rescue so that he would have the needed cash to make number one billionaire - must be nice to do that at his age Now he can poke his tongue out at his mate Bill and the Indian and Mexico billionaire boys he can splash his cash around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Financial Advisors on here however predict 12700 and upwards very soon. Stockman. That would require a 700 point or so leap from where it is today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr House Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 That would require a 700 point or so leap from where it is today. yes, and Financial Planner thinks it is going to happen.......................... I used to have so much faith in him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dog Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 ...sadly I think this will actually be good for the country in a horrible cathartic way. If it teaches the world that the city boys are not gods, then it will have done some good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 If the Dow went up by 700 by how much would the FTSE, as it mostly is a Dow tracker, also go up? I think we may well see a bounce in March before the markets crash big time later in the Spring/early Summer. 'They' might think all the bad news is out of the way, some merger talk may well begin and suddenly the b*****ers are buying.... bounce, bounce, bounce. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Nick Riviera Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 maybe not today though, unemployment claims are down, we're all saved! anyway I'm sure I read somewhere here about a financial planner saying it was going to 15000!! quick buy buy buy I also read fp predicting 7000 for Ftse and 15000 for the Dow. Personally (just a layman point of view) he’s got interpretation of the markets completely wrong. House prices are stagnating /falling /or about to fall and with that consumer confidence will go out the window, consumers account for 2/3rd of the economy and with that feel good factor gone, we’re all going to be spending a lot less, hence UK plc will suffer. The markets were ridiculously over-valued back in 2000 but now I don’t know. What I do know is the markets are always predicting ahead and that they’re very sensitive to prevailing sentiments. IMHO we’re in for a lot of volatility, the Ftse will gradually fall below 5500 and we may not see 7000 before 2010. Medium/long term (3-8yrs) it will definitely outperform Hpi. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Lorne Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 ...wouldn't worry too much about the fluctuations ...the view below includes projections for the latter part of 2008 which may be a little more severe.... From now until the latter part of 2008, many prophecies are going to begin to be fulfilled..... http://www.the-end.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rover Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 I also read fp predicting 7000 for Ftse and 15000 for the Dow. Personally (just a layman point of view) he’s got interpretation of the markets completely wrong. House prices are stagnating /falling /or about to fall and with that consumer confidence will go out the window, consumers account for 2/3rd of the economy and with that feel good factor gone, we’re all going to be spending a lot less, hence UK plc will suffer. The markets were ridiculously over-valued back in 2000 but now I don’t know. What I do know is the markets are always predicting ahead and that they’re very sensitive to prevailing sentiments. IMHO we’re in for a lot of volatility, the Ftse will gradually fall below 5500 and we may not see 7000 before 2010. Medium/long term (3-8yrs) it will definitely outperform Hpi. I was also intrigued by FP's prediction - it seemed counter intuitive to me. But I'm keeping a careful eye on things, hoping to learn as always! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rover Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 Tanking today following news of Cgnao's phone call. Bust the 12000 barrier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drrayjo Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 Rumour of second bail out rumour coming in Ambac. Word is that CNBC have heard from a source close to the fire escape that the Monolines are worried that there will be no new rumours about possible rescues around until the recent rescues are proved to have failed. That means that there'll be no Friday evening prop for the stock markets. A source close to the industry said that a consortium is "being put in place to work on new rumours but we can't be sure that these rumours will actually be ready for another five business days." News of the rumoured rumour of salvation sent MBIA and AMBAC up .01% in pre-market trading. Hank Paulson was rumoured to be delighted with the patriotic rumours, a source close to him on his lifeboat off the coast of Hawaii said Thursday. Ben Bernake has placed pencils in his ears and is wearing his favourite underpants on his head. -David McCreadie and Dan Davies Blackadder fan.....like one of our very own! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 The shares are going down all over the World. We may never see 12000 or 6000 again in our lifetimes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okaycuckoo Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 -David McCreadie and Dan Davies Blackadder fan.....like one of our very own! That's got to hurt - the pencils are supposed to go up his nostrils. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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