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what a ride!

I think I'm becoming addicted to silver. What do people think is the realistic target this year? People on the kitco forum are talking $100 by early 09. I can't believe we'll see over $25 myself, with much volatility on the way, but I'm not basing that on anything 'tangible'. Any analyst genius with an opinion care to comment?

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Went to the silver investment summit in november 2007 - predictions by David Benminson www.polarpacific.com

target price of $2600 for gold by 2014, silver $180 by 2014.

Winner of Best book in the field of Finance/Investment/Economics in 2007 for Polar Perspectives.

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Silver Chart 07/03/08:

http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/silver.png

Silver is bearish at the moment.

I am hoping for a pullback in the short term $16-$18 dollars but long term I honestly think we may see $100+. I think while US money supply is in double digits the commodities boom will be one of dot com proportions as we see bear markets in both property and stocks.

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I am hoping for a pullback in the short term $16-$18 dollars but long term I honestly think we may see $100+. I think while US money supply is in double digits the commodities boom will be one of dot com proportions as we see bear markets in both property and stocks.

Do you think the pull back will happen just before the Fed cuts interest rates, or after in May?

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we had a big pullback at $14, I can't imagine another meaningful correction until we get a good deal higher. I'll be watching the chart from 2000 and when I see the J-curve really taking hold I'll start to exit. As has been said here before, spreads at the top will be murderous if you try to sell then. Unless you sell privately ;)

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I don't really understand any of these charts. Frizzers on the green energy investors site said that silver may return to the 200dma which looking at the chart is around $14-$15.

200-day MA isn't on that chart! ;)

It is on this one, though:

silver_ma_usd.jpg

One point that interested me was the similarity between the above silver chart and the gold equivalent below. Despite silver's drop being quite a bit more significant than gold's, so far at least, they both seem to have dropped to about the same point with respect to their 50-day MA:

gold_ma_usd.jpg

Maybe there's something to charts after all! :)

post-5829-1206177123_thumb.jpg

post-5829-1206177140_thumb.jpg

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for those who think the recent activity on silver is a pull-back or signal of a top - DREAM ON!

silver is in a completely different situation to any other base OR precious metal. if you dont believe this, try sourcing silver eagles or maple leaves from anywhere in the US or Canada right now. when silver takes off (and it hasn't even started yet), we will see a re-rating of an order of magnitude.

1) demand has outstripped supply every year of the last 15 - and for at least 60 years on average.

2) most if not all government inventories are now depleted.

3) the list of industrial uses grows (including solar panels), now more than making up for the loss from photography.

4) silver is both a precious and a base metal, meaning it's an inflation hedge and necessary for industry.

5) in many industrial applications there is no alternative - eg mirrors.

6) although silver has gone up over the past few years, the rise has been so slow (relatively) over the past few decades because there was always more in government inventories as an artificial supply. now this has gone, the sky's the limit.

I'm sorry i don't know how high silver could go - the recent increase in mining is producing a little more silver than previously, but still not enough to meet demand.

The market will also accept a price of silver many times its current price - eg if an industrial switch (or mirror etc) costs £2 to produce, with the silver accounting for 2p of that, if the price of silver times by 5 to 10p - noone would notice now paying £2.10 for the switch!

As for how to invest, i'd be split between an etf and holding bullion - there's a lot of concern that the etfs couldn't actually meet their silver committments due to a net short position.

like everyone i've said this to - do your own rsearch via google or anywhere else and the answer is inescapable. Good luck.

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for those who think the recent activity on silver is a pull-back or signal of a top - DREAM ON!

silver is in a completely different situation to any other base OR precious metal. if you dont believe this, try sourcing silver eagles or maple leaves from anywhere in the US or Canada right now. when silver takes off (and it hasn't even started yet), we will see a re-rating of an order of magnitude.

1) demand has outstripped supply every year of the last 15 - and for at least 60 years on average.

2) most if not all government inventories are now depleted.

3) the list of industrial uses grows (including solar panels), now more than making up for the loss from photography.

4) silver is both a precious and a base metal, meaning it's an inflation hedge and necessary for industry.

5) in many industrial applications there is no alternative - eg mirrors.

6) although silver has gone up over the past few years, the rise has been so slow (relatively) over the past few decades because there was always more in government inventories as an artificial supply. now this has gone, the sky's the limit.

I'm sorry i don't know how high silver could go - the recent increase in mining is producing a little more silver than previously, but still not enough to meet demand.

The market will also accept a price of silver many times its current price - eg if an industrial switch (or mirror etc) costs £2 to produce, with the silver accounting for 2p of that, if the price of silver times by 5 to 10p - noone would notice now paying £2.10 for the switch!

As for how to invest, i'd be split between an etf and holding bullion - there's a lot of concern that the etfs couldn't actually meet their silver committments due to a net short position.

like everyone i've said this to - do your own rsearch via google or anywhere else and the answer is inescapable. Good luck.

I think you present the case for silver very well. And do it without mentioning any relationship to gold. In recent weeks it has shown itself to be more volatile than gold, but I feel that there is more up side potential. Previous posters have quoted gold as going to around USD2/3000, but silver in the USD100+ area, i.e. gold might double or triple but silver might rise 5 or 10 times. So thanks for your post.

As always what goes up can come down, just like house prices, so one must be prepared to move swiftly to protect one's self against loss.

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Why is VAT charged on silver, is there any way to get round it?

Yes use www.goldmoney.com, you can buy gold or silver which has a regular audit and serial numbers quoted. Also you can sell for spot price at any time 24/7, which gets around the increasing spread problem.

There is no VAT on goldmoney silver, just a 4.99% commission which can come done to 4.19% as a member.

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http://www.investmentrarities.com/05-20-08.html

Very long but interesting.

Conclusion

The fundamentals for silver are still spectacularly bullish. Demand appears strong for as far as the eye can see, thanks to world growth, in particular from the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China.). Production, after a bump up in the next few years, looks constrained. Investors appear to have awakened to the potential in silver after ignoring it for decades. The silver ETF wasn�t even being discussed when the 2004 report came out. Today, it is devouring silver in incredible amounts. I can�t overstate the importance of silver investment demand surging precisely at the same time there is less silver available for purchase than ever before.

Cook: Anything else?

Butler: Most importantly, the issue of manipulation is much clearer and more pronounced today, than it was 4 years ago. Much has changed in four years. Concentration was not the issue in 2004 that it is today. Concentration tells you that the short side is being abandoned and that the few shorts remaining are having to short more in the futile task of fighting a rising tide of investor demand. The silver bargains will be gone the minute the tide overwhelms them, as it must.

Cook: Thanks for presenting your case.

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5) in many industrial applications there is no alternative - eg mirrors.

Ummmm.... aluminium? Silver is better for some mirror purposes though...

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Silver may outperform gold but the big problem is the 17.5% VAT you pay on buying the silver. There is also the problems associated with storing silver since has 50x the volume of gold. You are going to need a huge safety deposit box or pay a larger fee for allocated storage.

from wikki:

Photography used 24% of the silver consumed in 2001 in the form of silver nitrate and silver halides, while 33% was used in jewellery, 40% for industrial uses, and only 3% for coins and medals

That photography use is going the way of the dinosaurs with digital cameras.

I am more optimistic about platinum since production in SA is being hit by power problems to the mines and potential political instability. Rhodium has gone through the roof recently.

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can someone explain to me why peeps are paying £12-15 for 1oz coins and bars on ebay when the spot price is a little over £9/ounce ?

You should consider the spot price as a large quantity price. You will pay a premium over spot when buying from a bullion dealer since he is dealing in small quantities and must make his own profit over spot.

Coins are not simple bullion they frequently have a premium value to coin collectors. If you are looking at them as bullion then you should avoid the rare ones which demand the most premium.

Many precious metals in coin form are still considered legal tender in their country of origin. This gives them additional investment value over bullion in that they are exempted from capital gains tax should the value rise. For example if bought gold bullion you would pay CGT on any profits when you sell. If you bought gold sovereigns there is no tax to pay when you sell.

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can someone explain to me why peeps are paying £12-15 for 1oz coins and bars on ebay when the spot price is a little over £9/ounce ?

Where can you buy cheaper?

That is why peeps are paying £12-15 for an ounce of silver.

Americans can buy silver coins a little over spot but as usual, in rip off Britain we get err ripped off.

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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