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Number 17 in our continuing series Edinburgh property developments which have gone bust. This time it's commercial rather than residential, but it's well worth mentioning. It's Waverley Gate, or the Post Office to you and me.

Evening News: City leaders line up cut-price bid for vacant GPO building.

Owww. I'd always wondered why it's been sitting empty for the last few years. It was finished well before the current economic problems started, so it looks as if the developers have shafted themselves by failing to shift it when the going was good.

I'd always wondered what the background to that building was as it's been empty ever since it was renovated a few years ago, which is a shame as it's quite iconic.

Commercial rents in Edinburgh have fallen off a cliff. I know quite a few of the big commercial property companies with large developments here have just given up on the market and aren't even marketing or expanding anymore. Apparently rents are now down to £10 per square foot whereas at the peak £40 would have been achievable, depending on location. At least the commercial market responds quickly to supply/demand pressures, unlike the moribund residential market where numpties will chase prices down and down for years, in denial of reality.

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http://www.home.co.uk/guides/asking_prices...mp;endyear=2009

Jan 2008 Apr 2009 Change

Detached £355,000 £355,000 0%

Semi £198,000 £215,000 +9%

Terraced £280,000 £195,000 -30%

Flat £215,000 £155,000 -28%

All £240,000 £180,000 -25%

****** me. Sort of agrees with the ESPC stats. Apart from detached houses - the Edinburgh market is truly ******ed, and it has barely even begun !!!

So what is holding detached up ? I see a LOT coming on for high prices and just sitting there and not selling. Less willing to take a hit than other types of owners ? TRUE lack of supply ?

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****** me. Sort of agrees with the ESPC stats. Apart from detached houses - the Edinburgh market is truly ******ed, and it has barely even begun !!!

So what is holding detached up ? I see a LOT coming on for high prices and just sitting there and not selling. Less willing to take a hit than other types of owners ? TRUE lack of supply ?

Semi + 9% interesting.

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Number 17 in our continuing series Edinburgh property developments which have gone bust. This time it's commercial rather than residential, but it's well worth mentioning. It's Waverley Gate, or the Post Office to you and me..

Was there once a main post office in that building? On more than one occasion it has struck me as strange that there isn’t a proper main post office in the centre of Edinburgh, just that wretched apology for one in the concrete bunker that is the St James’ Centre. If there was once a main post office at ‘Waverley Gate’, how long ago did it close down?

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Number 17 in our continuing series Edinburgh property developments which have gone bust. This time it's commercial rather than residential, but it's well worth mentioning. It's Waverley Gate, or the Post Office to you and me.

Evening News: City leaders line up cut-price bid for vacant GPO building.

Owww. I'd always wondered why it's been sitting empty for the last few years. It was finished well before the current economic problems started, so it looks as if the developers have shafted themselves by failing to shift it when the going was good.

Scottish parliament should have been in that building IMO, but they must piss money away on grand projects. My latest council tax demand has gone in the bin, I`ve had enough of it. I think the trams project is the next thing to go fully tits up?

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I concur with Dances that the Pymy Parliament should have been accommodated in the old GPO building. Plenty of space and an ultra-central location. The top of Calton Hill would have been best, with a classical building being built behind the already existing facade, but the GPO would have been vastly cheaper to convert than a newbuild on Calton ever could have been.

Hillbilly, yes that entire building ws all part of the GPO. It was set up in the days when Royal Mail was a rail-based system. It goes a dozen or so floors down to the rail depot and then has some more basement floors beneath that. It served much of Scotland for trunk routings. It was built in a much missed era when governments regarded public services as a national treasure, not a source of quick-buck easy revenue.

Attila the Hen detested railways and when she came to power in 1979 that building was instantly doomed.

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Was there once a main post office in that building? On more than one occasion it has struck me as strange that there isn’t a proper main post office in the centre of Edinburgh, just that wretched apology for one in the concrete bunker that is the St James’ Centre. If there was once a main post office at ‘Waverley Gate’, how long ago did it close down?

They've closed the POs on Frederick Street and just off Charlotte Square....?

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Was there once a main post office in that building? On more than one occasion it has struck me as strange that there isn’t a proper main post office in the centre of Edinburgh, just that wretched apology for one in the concrete bunker that is the St James’ Centre. If there was once a main post office at ‘Waverley Gate’, how long ago did it close down?

It turns out that it was only in 1995 that it closed down. It took them ages to rebuild it. They tore out the entire insides of the building and for several years it was just an empty shell stretching all the way down to Calton Road (and below, according to Bjørn). You could see in the windows and the whole thing was stuffed full of steel girders supporting the walls. It's not surprising that the redevelopment cost so much.

Edited by Scunnered
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****** me. Sort of agrees with the ESPC stats. Apart from detached houses - the Edinburgh market is truly ******ed, and it has barely even begun !!!

So what is holding detached up ? I see a LOT coming on for high prices and just sitting there and not selling. Less willing to take a hit than other types of owners ? TRUE lack of supply ?

Only because the poster picked Jan 08 as his start date. Go to the site and set the start date for 3 months before, Oct 07, the earliest they have figures for, and you see the period for December 07 to February 08 seems to be a blip... probably just some erroneous data

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/asking_prices...mp;endyear=2009

Lies, damned lies, and statistics...

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Only because the poster picked Jan 08 as his start date. Go to the site and set the start date for 3 months before, Oct 07, the earliest they have figures for, and you see the period for December 07 to February 08 seems to be a blip... probably just some erroneous data

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/asking_prices...mp;endyear=2009

Lies, damned lies, and statistics...

Remember these are not sales prices. You must remember these figures will seriously underestimate the fall in asking prices so far.

Why ?

This whole time period is where pretty much everything changed from offers over to fixed price.

When you imagine the real sale values commpared to these it is easy to see the huge difference this could cause.

Example - Gorgie one bed flat.

End of 2007 - offers over 100k. Probably sells for 120k.

Today - Fixed price 100k. Probably sells for 95k.

Asking price stats over the period ? They show no change over the 18 months.

Real sales prices over the period ? 20% drop.

:rolleyes:

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Remember these are not sales prices. You must remember these figures will seriously underestimate the fall in asking prices so far.

Why ?

This whole time period is where pretty much everything changed from offers over to fixed price.

When you imagine the real sale values commpared to these it is easy to see the huge difference this could cause.

Example - Gorgie one bed flat.

End of 2007 - offers over 100k. Probably sells for 120k.

Today - Fixed price 100k. Probably sells for 95k.

Asking price stats over the period ? They show no change over the 18 months.

Real sales prices over the period ? 20% drop.

:rolleyes:

And without a mention of how many asking prices were fixed v offers over for the time scale the stats on that site just become more meaningless - data junk, prettily formatted

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And without a mention of how many asking prices were fixed v offers over for the time scale the stats on that site just become more meaningless - data junk, prettily formatted

I wouldnt say meaningless. I think we all know from watching the market over the last 2 years the change from offers over to fixed price has been across the board. So if this period is showing any sort of falls we can be certain the actual falls are indeed far greater.

From my view of the market - a very general view:

2 years ago - 3/4 offers over and 1/4 fixed price.

Today - 3/4 fixed price and 1/4 offers over.

You are correct though - without specific details we can't use the figures in any really detailed way. However they do show one thing clearly. Prices are down - quite a lot. This fits in with the Nationwide/Halifax/RoS/ESPC stats and my own tracking of the Gorgie 1 bed market.

Edinburgh is already down about 20% across the board - if you actually want to sell your house.

I expect another 2 or 3 years of ~10% falls to take prices down to reasonable levels. 40% ish off from peak.

As I have said all along - All you have to do is watch a FTB area and wait until those fit in with long term trends. Everything else will have moved accordingly.

When the average 1 bedder in Gorgie is at 60-70k - prices will have reached a reasonable level in Edinburgh. Until then - don't buy. It is that simple in my opinion.

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I wouldnt say meaningless. I think we all know from watching the market over the last 2 years the change from offers over to fixed price has been across the board. So if this period is showing any sort of falls we can be certain the actual falls are indeed far greater.

From my view of the market - a very general view:

2 years ago - 3/4 offers over and 1/4 fixed price.

Today - 3/4 fixed price and 1/4 offers over.

You are correct though - without specific details we can't use the figures in any really detailed way. However they do show one thing clearly. Prices are down - quite a lot. This fits in with the Nationwide/Halifax/RoS/ESPC stats and my own tracking of the Gorgie 1 bed market.

Edinburgh is already down about 20% across the board - if you actually want to sell your house.

I expect another 2 or 3 years of ~10% falls to take prices down to reasonable levels. 40% ish off from peak.

As I have said all along - All you have to do is watch a FTB area and wait until those fit in with long term trends. Everything else will have moved accordingly.

When the average 1 bedder in Gorgie is at 60-70k - prices will have reached a reasonable level in Edinburgh. Until then - don't buy. It is that simple in my opinion.

The trouble is for a decent one in this area you have to go to around 110 to 115k, there are crappy ones that need 15k worth of upgrading works to them for around 100k.

Peak bubble you would pay 125k for a good one 110k for a crappy one, and they are selling at these prices now. :angry:

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The trouble is for a decent one in this area you have to go to around 110 to 115k, there are crappy ones that need 15k worth of upgrading works to them for around 100k.

Peak bubble you would pay 125k for a good one 110k for a crappy one, and they are selling at these prices now. :angry:

:lol:

There are about 10-15 that are available on ESPC right now for 100k I would guess. At least 10 at fixed of 105k or lower. You could get all of these for under 100k no probs.

This is fixed price of 93,500. It has been on for about 2 weeks.

Gorgie

ESPC back up the figures too. Average for a one bedder in Gorgie is about 104k IIRC. That means nice ones prob 105-115k and shabby ones 90-100k.

Of the 27 one bed flats for sale in Gorgie today. ONE is at a fixed price of 125k. EVERY other one is priced between OO 89k and 120k. Majority between 100-110k. But this is the asking price remember.

Then we also have our one exception to the rule - our comedy one bedder for 139k !!

Comedy one bedder in Gorgie

Crutchster - you clearly know people in the business. So why are you saying places are selling for the prices above - when they clearly are not.... :rolleyes:

PS - 5 new ones for Gorgie appeared this week. 3 at 105k or less fixed price.

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:lol:

There are about 10-15 that are available on ESPC right now for 100k I would guess. At least 10 at fixed of 105k or lower. You could get all of these for under 100k no probs.

This is fixed price of 93,500. It has been on for about 2 weeks.

Gorgie

ESPC back up the figures too. Average for a one bedder in Gorgie is about 104k IIRC. That means nice ones prob 105-115k and shabby ones 90-100k.

Of the 27 one bed flats for sale in Gorgie today. ONE is at a fixed price of 125k. EVERY other one is priced between OO 89k and 120k. Majority between 100-110k. But this is the asking price remember.

Then we also have our one exception to the rule - our comedy one bedder for 139k !!

Comedy one bedder in Gorgie

Crutchster - you clearly know people in the business. So why are you saying places are selling for the prices above - when they clearly are not.... :rolleyes:

PS - 5 new ones for Gorgie appeared this week. 3 at 105k or less fixed price.

mmm I don't know about crutchster...sort of sits on the fence ala Lib Dem MP. So what do you do for a living Crutchster?

It goes something like this....link to "what a stupid price for a 2 bed...riduculous!" and follows post with "but I know a mate who just sold a similar flat for the same price".

You sort of have an argument with yourself. You appear to be indecisive yet your not sure ;-)

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:lol:

There are about 10-15 that are available on ESPC right now for 100k I would guess. At least 10 at fixed of 105k or lower. You could get all of these for under 100k no probs.

This is fixed price of 93,500. It has been on for about 2 weeks.

Gorgie

ESPC back up the figures too. Average for a one bedder in Gorgie is about 104k IIRC. That means nice ones prob 105-115k and shabby ones 90-100k.

Of the 27 one bed flats for sale in Gorgie today. ONE is at a fixed price of 125k. EVERY other one is priced between OO 89k and 120k. Majority between 100-110k. But this is the asking price remember.

Then we also have our one exception to the rule - our comedy one bedder for 139k !!

Comedy one bedder in Gorgie

Crutchster - you clearly know people in the business. So why are you saying places are selling for the prices above - when they clearly are not.... :rolleyes:

PS - 5 new ones for Gorgie appeared this week. 3 at 105k or less fixed price.

My frustration is the prices have held for much longer than i expected, i have bidded for 4 one bed flats in Gorgie at 70k, all my offers have been refused.

I Have been stalking the area for over a year, and my conclusions are in line with your findings, an all singing and dancing one, ie recently renovated circa 115 to 120,

A Dump and there are loads of them, with no GSC, No DG, And renovated in the eighties 90k to 95k, and anything inbetween seems to be between 100 and 110k

The problem is they are now selling, so prices are not dropping anymore, i spoke to a surveyor on friday who was doing a home report on one at 110k :(

The surveyor agreed that these flats are worth more than new build one bedders at Grunton Harbour. :lol:

Sorry to bring the news but the comedy one bedder you describe is actually a 2 bedder, which IMO Is worth around 130k

Edited by thecrutchster
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mmm I don't know about crutchster...sort of sits on the fence ala Lib Dem MP. So what do you do for a living Crutchster?

It goes something like this....link to "what a stupid price for a 2 bed...riduculous!" and follows post with "but I know a mate who just sold a similar flat for the same price".

You sort of have an argument with yourself. You appear to be indecisive yet your not sure ;-)

He's what I like to call a born again bull.

Its a old fallacious debating technique.

"Hey, I'm on your side but......."

"Guys, I really want this to happen too but......"

Used to be a lot of it around before the crunch.

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I have always argued the parliament should have been put in the GPO bldg. If nothing else, it would have saved a fortune in taxis.

I work in care work, and because we used to use a lot of "contract taxis" to ferry around guys that were too challenging for public transport, I one day got to chatting with a taxi driver about how the system can be abused. Someone at my work at that time had been accused of using the contract code to get home from a pub pissed one night, and others were supposed to have used the service users account to get home from their shifts when they were "too tired to get the bus". The driver said that he believed it, and said the worst offenders at that time were RBS employees putting their taxis to and from the pub on the business account, and Holyrood employees. He said one time he was phoned on a contract account to take some guys badminton kit from Chesser house to Holyrood because he had forgotten to pick it up when he left. That is what your council tax is paying for.

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My frustration is the prices have held for much longer than i expected, i have bidded for 4 one bed flats in Gorgie at 70k, all my offers have been refused.

I Have been stalking the area for over a year, and my conclusions are in line with your findings, an all singing and dancing one, ie recently renovated circa 115 to 120,

A Dump and there are loads of them, with no GSC, No DG, And renovated in the eighties 90k to 95k, and anything inbetween seems to be between 100 and 110k

The problem is they are now selling, so prices are not dropping anymore, i spoke to a surveyor on friday who was doing a home report on one at 110k :(

The surveyor agreed that these flats are worth more than new build one bedders at Grunton Harbour. :lol:

Sorry to bring the news but the comedy one bedder you describe is actually a 2 bedder, which IMO Is worth around 130k

Judging by the number of To Let signs up there at the moment, we are on the cusp of a BTL meltdown :P , I still say that with the oversupply of newbuild you will struggle to shift flats in Gorgie for 50k when the SHF. 100k for that area (or any similar flats) is fantasy pricing.

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My frustration is the prices have held for much longer than i expected, i have bidded for 4 one bed flats in Gorgie at 70k, all my offers have been refused.

I Have been stalking the area for over a year, and my conclusions are in line with your findings, an all singing and dancing one, ie recently renovated circa 115 to 120,

A Dump and there are loads of them, with no GSC, No DG, And renovated in the eighties 90k to 95k, and anything inbetween seems to be between 100 and 110k

The problem is they are now selling, so prices are not dropping anymore, i spoke to a surveyor on friday who was doing a home report on one at 110k :(

The surveyor agreed that these flats are worth more than new build one bedders at Grunton Harbour. :lol:

Sorry to bring the news but the comedy one bedder you describe is actually a 2 bedder, which IMO Is worth around 130k

One example of a one bed flat selling in Gorgie for 125k. Thanks

:rolleyes:

As for the 2 bedder ? Well if you call a room sized 6’ 2” x 3’ 11” a bedroom then fine.

So you think a one bed flat with a tiny boxroom ATTACHED TO THE ONLY BEDROOM is worth 130k............... :o

Nuff said.

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"loads of them, with no GSC" .....

Huh? Take it you mean GCH?

I used to think GSOH in the personal ad's stood for "Great Sex, Own Home". I mean, what more could you hope for?!

GSC, hmmm what could that stand for?

Suggestions?

...

Edited by pyracantha
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I used to think GSOH in the personal ad's stood for "Great Sex, Own Home". I mean, what more could you hope for?!

GSC, hmmm what could that stand for?

Suggestions?

...

Sticking with the property theme..........

Greatly Soiled Carpets

Generally Sagging Ceilings

Gallus Sixties Curtains

Gorgeous Sanded Cupboards

(nah, that sounds too Estate Agenty)

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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • up 5%



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