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Based on unacheivable rents IMO.

Actually, student rooms in Marchmont are typically 300-400pm so it's a reasonable analysis I reckon. BTL in Edinburgh is probably working quite well for people who got into it a few years ago but I can only assume that recent entrants aren't very good with sums or money.

My own personal bias is probably different to other posters on this forum but I think it's pretty clear that Edinburgh property prices are over-valued relative to rent.

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I'd expect a 3 double bedroom in EH10 to fetch quite a bit more than 3k in August, perhaps around the 5k mark. I know of a city centre 3 double bedroom (all with ensuites) city centre apartment that has reached 7k for August this year. 2 bedroom apartments with only 1 or 2 bath easily fetch over 3k. Number of bath/shower rooms is important if you are marketing for 6 guests though.

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The 55k flat is in 'need of modernisation' and I don't see any mention of a kitchen. Weird. I would assume the kitchen is in the living room, but possibly not.

None of these flats have kitchens, they are two rooms plus v small bathroom and you have to put a "kitchen" area (i.e. sink, cooker, little surface) into the end of the living room - they are about the smallest viable flats you get in a tenement. The 55K one appears to have sold and one of the 90K ones has reduced to 84K.

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Out of sheer curiosity, I have just done some sums, concerning buying and letting flats in my local area.

In my area on the East side, if you bought a large one-bed like mine at 125K and let it to a working couple (your most likely tenants), you couldn't charge more than 550 pcm at best, you wouldn't be able to do a festival let and your BTL mortgage repayment, based on 20% deposit and 5.3% IR (as Yorks bank) would be (on a standard calculator) £752 pcm (repayment not IO). Plus other fees and costs as mentioned. If you bought one of the ones which unlike mine have been converted to 2-beds + internal kitchen, priced at 140K, you could let each room for - what - 300K per person pcm, 350K max, so 600-700K pcm and your BTL mortgage would be £842 pcm and if you didn't find two working friends as sharers, you'd be into the whole HMO hassle.

The only way BTL monthly calculation gives you any profit is on an IO gamble or if you have lots of equity in the property, preferably 100% in which case you wouldn't need a BTL mortgage. It makes no sense to go BTL now on the basis of having to take out a mortgage. People who are reluctant landlords, i.e. "can't sell" especially if they have a mortgage, should do a similar calculation to see if they wouldn't be better off just selling at a lower price than they have yet contemplated (they almost all would).

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Apologies, wrong calculations there but I don't seem to be able to edit my posts:

In my area on the East side, if you bought a large one-bed like mine at 125K and let it to a working couple (your most likely tenants), you couldn't charge more than 550 pcm at best, you wouldn't be able to do a festival let and your BTL mortgage repayment, based on 20% deposit and 5.3% IR (as Yorks bank) would be (on a standard calculator) £602 pcm (repayment not IO). Plus other fees and costs as mentioned. If you bought one of the ones which unlike mine have been converted to 2-beds + internal kitchen, priced at 140K, you could let each room for - what - 300K per person pcm, 350K max, so £600-700 pcm and your BTL mortgage would be £674 pcm and if you didn't find two working friends as sharers, you'd be into the whole HMO hassle.

The only way BTL monthly calculation gives you any profit is on an IO gamble or if you have lots of equity in the property, preferably 100% in which case you wouldn't need a BTL mortgage. It makes no sense to go BTL now on the basis of having to take out a mortgage. People who are reluctant landlords, i.e. "can't sell" especially if they have a mortgage, should do a similar calculation to see if they wouldn't be better off just selling at a lower price than they have yet contemplated (they almost all would).

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Been having an interesting 'debate' - if you could call it that with an old poster from the EN. Techpunk.

EN

It seems they are getting a little more agitated with the situation recently. Previously it was all **** sure you don't have a clue CCC sort of chat. Whereas now there seems to be a little bit of fear kicking in. Interesting.

Just trying to explain the importance of real vs nominal prices and they simply do not understand how important this definition is and the effect of inflation.

And the most interesting bit - they finally come out and admit they are involved in the property industry. Never knew that until now. Not a shock really though. Unless they are making it up of course - which I did catch another poster out on when they said 2 completely contradictory things about themselves.

Maybe a bored EA been having fun with all the 'doomongers' for the past few years and laughing at our lack of knowledge in their field of trade. Perhaps now sitting in their empty office - for the 4th year - and thinking '****** sake what if those **** ends were actually right...'

If you are reading this techpunk - hello. :D

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Techpunk

for gods sake ccc, get over yourself!

12,000+ posts (I'd say that's pretty obesessive)on a forum largely populated by a bunch of circle-jerk no-hopers(housepricecrash) does not make an economist you.

---------------

:lol:

Definite anger setting in. So bothered enough to come on here and see what everyone is saying - yet we don't have a clue. Strange that. :rolleyes:

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Techpunk

for gods sake ccc, get over yourself!

12,000+ posts (I'd say that's pretty obesessive)on a forum largely populated by a bunch of circle-jerk no-hopers(housepricecrash) does not make an economist you.

---------------

:lol:

Definite anger setting in. So bothered enough to come on here and see what everyone is saying - yet we don't have a clue. Strange that. :rolleyes:

techpunk sounds more like cluelesscunt, probably an EA or BTL parasite? more wishful thinker than economist? knows the game is up it looks like.

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techpunk sounds more like cluelesscunt, probably an EA or BTL parasite? more wishful thinker than economist? knows the game is up it looks like.

That is exactly what I thought. Only so long unbridled optimism can bring you.

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From the article:

Edinburgh's traditional stock, in particular, has an enviable record of being almost immune to any of the price falls common in other parts of the kingdom

Well that’s a lie, for starters. Two-bedroom tenement flats in Marchmont and Bruntsfield are as ‘traditional’ as ‘stock’ can be. The average sale price according to the ESPC from March to May 2011 was £248,388, whereas just a year earlier, it was £292,030 – a 15% drop, by my reckoning. Judging by the lack of interest at open Sunday viewings, I think it will fall further still.

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I went to view three flats today, all of them bog-standard two-bedroom tenement flats in Marchmont.

In two of them, nobody answered the buzzer, presumably because they are so used to nobody turning up on a Sunday that they no longer bother waiting in. In the third of them, 33/4 Lauderdale Street, which has only just come to the market, I saw the sheet from the first open viewing last Thursday – a big fat zero had been written down by the person representing the agents – and nobody had been in during the hour prior to my turning up on Sunday. The flat needs a new kitchen and complete redecoration yet still they want over £275K for it, even though it appears to be, and the representative of the agent said it is, part of an estate after somebody’s death.

If even a flat which is new to the market has no viewers, and the owners of those which have been on the market for a few weeks no longer bother turning up for open viewings, surely prices will have to head down. Or was the lack of interest today caused entirely by the unusually hot and humid weather in Edinburgh?

As others such as ccc have observed elsewhere, prices at the bottom end of the market have fallen substantially. I think the middle of the market is also on its way down. The average sale price for these kinds of flats is now below 250K according to the ESPC, and there has been no spring bounce: according to the extremely useful ESPC spreadsheet, from April to May 2010 the quarterly average leapt from £269K to £290K, but from April to May 2011 it was entirely static at about £248K. The prices of the much rare three-bedroom flats in Marchmont/Bruntsfield are still holding up, over 300K – one on Warrender Park Road which had an asking price of 305K recently went under offer very quickly – but surely their prices must also follow suit in a downward direction.

My only worry is that with near-zero interest rates and no significant increase in unemployment, there are negligible forced sales, so the sale stock that is sitting on the market over the summer will just be quietly withdrawn over the autumn, supply will fall to nothing, and prices will go back up, just as they did in late 2009/early 2010.

Has anyone else been out on any viewings today in any other parts of Edinburgh?

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From the article:

Edinburgh's traditional stock, in particular, has an enviable record of being almost immune to any of the price falls common in other parts of the kingdom

Well that's a lie, for starters. Two-bedroom tenement flats in Marchmont and Bruntsfield are as 'traditional' as 'stock' can be. The average sale price according to the ESPC from March to May 2011 was £248,388, whereas just a year earlier, it was £292,030 – a 15% drop, by my reckoning. Judging by the lack of interest at open Sunday viewings, I think it will fall further still.

He does mention prices not rising for a very long time though. Returns of ~5% with void periods and maintenance etc.. Not worth the hassle IMO.

And good info about the viewings. Nothing much happening anywhere. Can't believe some people do not even answer the door. :lol:

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I went to view three flats today, all of them bog-standard two-bedroom tenement flats in Marchmont.

In two of them, nobody answered the buzzer,

Definitely open viewing on a sunday? I know when ours hadn't shifted after 3 months and we wanted our weekends back we went to appointments only. Naturally, this seemed to increase the number of people ringing our bell when we were in on a sunday (though, it probably didn't really)

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Definitely open viewing on a sunday? I know when ours hadn't shifted after 3 months and we wanted our weekends back we went to appointments only. Naturally, this seemed to increase the number of people ringing our bell when we were in on a sunday (though, it probably didn't really)

I always check the latest details on the ESPC web site to see whether it still says Sundays 2–4 for viewing before I set out to look at any flat. If this ceases to be the case, then one would hope that the information would be updated on the site!

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I always check the latest details on the ESPC web site to see whether it still says Sundays 2–4 for viewing before I set out to look at any flat. If this ceases to be the case, then one would hope that the information would be updated on the site!

Arf. We tell our estate agents, who'll tell the ESPC "as soon as possible", who in turn get round to it "in a couple of days". Sometimes the communication doesn't happen, more often it just takes 2 or 3 weeks.

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When my parents were selling their house a few years back - EA's just got he functionality to go direct into ESPC and amend things as required. So we were told anyway. So unless this has changed - if details are not updated then it is the EA being useless and not the ESPC.

Maybe ESPC can confirm ?

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When my parents were selling their house a few years back - EA's just got he functionality to go direct into ESPC and amend things as required. So we were told anyway. So unless this has changed - if details are not updated then it is the EA being useless and not the ESPC.

Maybe ESPC can confirm ?

When I was looking at flats in the autumn there were numerous places advertised -- on ESPC and the EA's -- as holding Sunday viewings that were not in fact holding viewings. In fact, Blair Cadell advertised one place as holding Sunday viewings for over a month after it _sold_. Total cretins and extremely unprofessional.

EC.

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When I was looking at flats in the autumn there were numerous places advertised -- on ESPC and the EA's -- as holding Sunday viewings that were not in fact holding viewings. In fact, Blair Cadell advertised one place as holding Sunday viewings for over a month after it _sold_. Total cretins and extremely unprofessional.

EC.

And yet they expect a % of a house sale. What a joke.

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It beggars belief that some EAs are so lax. It is perfectly possible to use a fixed-fee agent who, for a few hundred pounds, will list you on Rightmove and answer the 'phone. You can do all the rest yourself. Having said that, in Edinburgh you really want to be in the ESPC and for that you presumably need an EA/solicitor.

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Are other people in Edinburgh finding, like me, that supply has suddenly dried up completely? Virtually nothing in my search has come to the market this week, and I expect that’s how it will remain until the autumn now. It’s boring how the market in Edinburgh is so incredibly seasonal. I suppose the existing stock will gradually get either sold or withdrawn over the summer, but let’s hope some more comes to the market in the early autumn, or otherwise we’ll be back where we were at the end of 2009 – nothing for sale, and prices going back up. With near-zero interest rates, I can well imagine this being the case.

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Are other people in Edinburgh finding, like me, that supply has suddenly dried up completely? Virtually nothing in my search has come to the market this week, and I expect that’s how it will remain until the autumn now.

...

Take it off the market and let it out for the Festival for an entire year's mortgage payments?

Edited by Scunnered
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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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