Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
roblpm

Edinbugh Latest

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, GentlemansFamilyFinances said:

I don't know if many cities have done anything effective about it.  I don't know if AirBnB actually increases demand for tourism in a city.  I'm happy to be proved wrong - but it's not how I see it.

Anecdotally, friends who are happy to rent out their house in Edinburgh have had no takers in August at all.  Last year they had 2 weeks of bookings.  £100 per night and a 3 bed house (albeit a long long walk from the grassmarket. :) )

Loads have complete banned it for entire property rentals to take it back to what it was started off as - rent out your spare room to invite strangers to your city on the cheap. New York, Berlin are just two off the top of my head.

I have ben tracking the numbers in Edinburgh recently. There is such an over supply now. Pointless for many of them. Some of the money they are asking for isn't worth it IMO.

1 hour ago, mynamehere said:

The geographical area for high value festival lets is actually quite small. It's a tiny area really.  I live very centrally, but outisde 'the zone' and havn't seen any festival  tourists at all. They all want to be near the venues.

My partner just sold her central flat for way, way above HR value. Edinburgh is still cheap by national standards vs income and will be seeing above inflation rises for a while yet I imagine. 

Should have bought 3 years ago. 30% growth!!!

Edinburgh is lagging London exactly the same way it did in 2008.  Now that doesn't mean what comes next will be exactly the same. However I think the chances of Edinburgh not avoiding drops in the near future is extremely slim.

As for "cheap" by national standards Vs income ? :ph34r::lol:

The average house price here is about 10 times the average income here. That ain't cheap by anyone's standards.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, mynamehere said:

My partner just sold her central flat for way, way above HR value. Edinburgh is still cheap by national standards vs income and will be seeing above inflation rises for a while yet I imagine. 

Should have bought 3 years ago. 30% growth!!!

We should all have bought 10years ago!

All the same my anecdotal evidence is that things are cooling down now, at least in the range of 300000+ say.

I have two friends who have had offers accepted on flats in this bracket, offers just a bit over valuation.  And in very strong (traditional) areas near the centre too.  In each case they made the bid directly to the vendor rather than going to closing date.  But there can't have been all that much interest if the vendor was willing to go that route.

Things still seem to be quite competitive for cheaper properties though.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes sorry, bad use of the word 'cheap'. Obviously it's expensive on income terms. I just meant that compared to teh rest of UK, Edinburgh is still down in real terms vs GFC. 

Still quite a few flats available under 150k, which for a capital city is quite weird. 

The prime market will be screwed I think but hard to see the 150k flats falling that much

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, toreveal said:

We should all have bought 10years ago!

All the same my anecdotal evidence is that things are cooling down now, at least in the range of 300000+ say.

I have two friends who have had offers accepted on flats in this bracket, offers just a bit over valuation.  And in very strong (traditional) areas near the centre too.  In each case they made the bid directly to the vendor rather than going to closing date.  But there can't have been all that much interest if the vendor was willing to go that route.

Things still seem to be quite competitive for cheaper properties though.

 

Holiday rental market. People coming far too late to the party with no clue what's happening.

1 hour ago, mynamehere said:

Yes sorry, bad use of the word 'cheap'. Obviously it's expensive on income terms. I just meant that compared to teh rest of UK, Edinburgh is still down in real terms vs GFC. 

Still quite a few flats available under 150k, which for a capital city is quite weird. 

The prime market will be screwed I think but hard to see the 150k flats falling that much

 

They will when the **** falls out the holiday /Air BNB rental market. Which is already showing signs. IMO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, ccc said:

Holiday rental market. People coming far too late to the party with no clue what's happening.

They will when the **** falls out the holiday /Air BNB rental market. Which is already showing signs. IMO.

Airbnb bookings up by 70% last year. according to BBC

 

Curious what makes you think arbnb market is on the turn?  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 07/08/2018 at 14:45, mynamehere said:

Airbnb bookings up by 70% last year. according to BBC

 

Curious what makes you think arbnb market is on the turn?  

Aggregate bookings can be up while individual void rates are up at the same time. Without seeing the figures, and being able to disaggregate in the same way AirBnB can, it's impossible to say. But the platform benefits from transactions rather than from the profitability of individual units, so I wouldn't expect AirBnB to publish anything like useful statistics.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 07/08/2018 at 14:45, mynamehere said:

Airbnb bookings up by 70% last year. according to BBC

 

Curious what makes you think arbnb market is on the turn?  

Supply overload. It's very simple.

Anyone trying to get into air BnB in Edinburgh today is an absolute mug imo. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎18‎/‎07‎/‎2018 at 11:31, ccc said:

Sounds like you got a decent deal in a fairly crazy market. Nice one. :D

As for AIR BnB - I think that bubble has already burst. I was just about to comment that in my stair a long term landlord has recently just spent about a month totally doing the place up after the Spanish bods who had been there for years just left. They bought a place in Fife for the record.

#Brexit

#EU citizens heading home

#Hairyboy

:lol:

Anyway - he was going to put it up on Air BnB. Keylock up on front door and everything. Spoke to the women next door about it. Three weeks later ? For sale sign up. This bloke has been around for a long time. I think he worked out very quickly what way Air BnB is heading. Just look at the supply yourself even for dates during the festival. Huge. Many entire places around my area for £60-£70 per night and their calendars are almost empty.

The time to be in Air BnB in Edinburgh has been and gone IMO.

Festival numbers are nothing like they used to be 15, 20, or even 10 years ago, or it certainly doesn`t seem like it being on the streets or travelling around by bus. Mid 90`s Hogmanay, Fringe and main festival was absolute mayhem, all day and all night for the festivals, and I bet every spare flat was let at bumper rates back then. I have seen Princes St. traffic brought to a standstill by people just walking on the road because there wasn`t room on the pavements one festival day late 90`s or early 2000`s, can`t remember exactly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎07‎/‎08‎/‎2018 at 13:03, mynamehere said:

Yes sorry, bad use of the word 'cheap'. Obviously it's expensive on income terms. I just meant that compared to teh rest of UK, Edinburgh is still down in real terms vs GFC. 

Still quite a few flats available under 150k, which for a capital city is quite weird. 

The prime market will be screwed I think but hard to see the 150k flats falling that much

 

Depends where they are, and depends on the effects of Brexit that may take a while to trickle through IMO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have just done a viewing myself today, not a "prime" area but a good one a little bit from the centre (think Roseburn, Trinity, Willowbrae).  Around 250000 asking.  Anyway it's been on for 3 weeks with no notes of interest.  Market is *definitely* slowing (like I mentioned I have two friends who succeeded recently in making direct-offers without a closing-date).

Am thinking of making an offer in fact, just wonder would the Brexit worries help me further over the months ahead.

Regarding ccc and his AirBnb comments, if I do a search of my current area (prime area very close to centre) for the weekend after next, there are many many options available for those dates - both rooms and full flats.  That's in *August*. Definitely an oversupply.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, toreveal said:

Regarding ccc and his AirBnb comments, if I do a search of my current area (prime area very close to centre) for the weekend after next, there are many many options available for those dates - both rooms and full flats.  That's in *August*. Definitely an oversupply.

 

Thats not a good way to judge supply and demand, Airbnb will by design not show you any places which are already sold out.

A better approach is to search for the first week in December, open up the details, scroll down to the calendar and then page back to August - there are plenty of flats which are completely sold out for the whole of August.

I'm not saying that the market is still booming, I dont know, but you have to cautious about reading too much into a few anecdotal reports.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Habeas Domus said:

A better approach is to search for the first week in December, open up the details, scroll down to the calendar and then page back to August - there are plenty of flats which are completely sold out for the whole of August.

I'm not saying that the market is still booming, I dont know, but you have to cautious about reading too much into a few anecdotal reports.

That might be true ... but all the same there are *many many* flats and rooms still available in a "hot" central area, for a long weekend in the festival period.  That's oversupply even if I don't have the ratio calculated.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, toreveal said:

That might be true ... but all the same there are *many many* flats and rooms still available in a "hot" central area, for a long weekend in the festival period.  That's oversupply even if I don't have the ratio calculated.

People have so many distractions now, just sitting in their house, many have twigged that walking round Edinburgh in the p*ishing rain bumping into other people isn`t really that great an idea maybe?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, toreveal said:

That might be true ... but all the same there are *many many* flats and rooms still available in a "hot" central area, for a long weekend in the festival period.  That's oversupply even if I don't have the ratio calculated.

Agreed. Of course there are ones that are fully booked in August. What is surprising is there are loads with zero bookings in August. 

You wouldn't have found that even a few years ago in Edinburgh.

15 hours ago, dances with sheeple said:

People have so many distractions now, just sitting in their house, many have twigged that walking round Edinburgh in the p*ishing rain bumping into other people isn`t really that great an idea maybe?

Town seems as ridiculously busy as ever from what I see ? 

Plenty of last minute reasonable value accomodation options however these days. That's a huge change. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, ccc said:

Plenty of last minute reasonable value accomodation options however these days. That's a huge change. 

Somebody needs to do a proper analysis of this, 100 empty flats might look a lot but not if there are 5,000 fully booked. AirBnB has grown a lot over the last few years.

It does seem telling that so many are COMPLETELY unbooked, but then they could just be in unpopular streets or with unappealing decor, also I think often folk are reluctant to book somewhere with little history/reviews. There can be an element of winner takes all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For 2 days next week Only 4% of listings are left for these dates.

September Only 10% of listings are left for these dates.

October Only 12% of listings are left for these dates.

November Only 9% of listings are left for these dates.

December  Only 9% of listings are left for these dates.

June 2019 Only 7% of listings are left for these dates.

Jue 2020 Only 6% of listings are left for these dates.

I don't think I trust the stats from the AirBNB page, does anyone believe they are already 94% booked up for 2020?

It seems like the real baseline is somewhere around 10% so therefore 4% left really means 40% left. Thats kinda brutal if accurate.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Habeas Domus said:

For 2 days next week Only 4% of listings are left for these dates.

September Only 10% of listings are left for these dates.

October Only 12% of listings are left for these dates.

November Only 9% of listings are left for these dates.

December  Only 9% of listings are left for these dates.

June 2019 Only 7% of listings are left for these dates.

Jue 2020 Only 6% of listings are left for these dates.

I don't think I trust the stats from the AirBNB page, does anyone believe they are already 94% booked up for 2020?

It seems like the real baseline is somewhere around 10% so therefore 4% left really means 40% left. Thats kinda brutal if accurate.

 

I think only air BnB would be able to do a proper analysis. That 2020 % is clearly utter bull. 

https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/our-region/edinburgh/new-town/they-left-excrement-in-the-stairwell-resident-s-hell-from-new-town-airbnb-tourist-chaos-1-4782872

Another story. An interesting point in here I never realised. If true - and most insurers do this - then about half of central Edinburgh flats are currently un insured. :blink:

"Ms Ivackovic said, to add insult to injury, her personal house insurance was rendered void if the lock box – used to access keys to short-term rent properties – was visible near a front door."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My point - which may be wrong - is that AirBnB doesn't increase the number of tourists coming to a city.  It just displaces them from other options.

I had a look at airbnb for this Friday and there are lots of places for reasonable prices.  Some people are taking this p*ss but they'll not have anyone staying.

 

Is there any evidence of buyers factoring in AirBnB rents into what they are willing to pay for a property?  I know that if I could move to Edinburgh and looking to buy, it would be in my mind as a way to make some extra money.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think its pretty obvious many have been 'snapping up' one bed places in areas such as Gorgie / Leith to rent out full time as Air BnB full stop.

A recent article had the number of multiple Air BnB hosts in Edinburgh with entire places available at about 3,000 IIRC.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

are the returns from AirBnB worth it?

Voids must be significant, cleaning, fees, damage, furnishing costs - it all adds up.

My point is that every extra AirBnB in Edinburgh just lowers the occupancy rate for everybody else.  And prices seem lower than they were a few years ago in the city for the festival.  

 

What I would agree with is that I would not like to have all my neighbours as AirBnB flats - it's not good and need controlling/banning/taxing properly.  I wish that the government was more proactive in doing something other than talking about the problem.

In the same way that many areas of cities are destroyed by BTLers, AirBnB can do the same to Edinburgh - and even flush out residents from parts of the city that have been occupied for hundreds of years - turning central Edinburgh into a museum hotel.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Totally agree. The chances of having issues with neighbours who are totally random, changing on a daily basis , and mostly here on holidays to have fun is massively higher then if you are in a block with 'normal' neighbours. 

You are basically staying in more of a hotel - but without it being specifically designed for that purpose - proper soundproofing etc..

Almost forgot about this. Lots of useful data. 

http://insideairbnb.com/edinburgh/#

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, GentlemansFamilyFinances said:

very interesting site.

I love the map - and it's interesting that airBnB affects richer areas less - see Marchmont and a bit further south

Its just numbers. People going to a place are looking for somewhere close to town. Someone from Croatia wont care or have a clue if Gorgie is nicer than Marchmont or vice versa. Paint the inside - do the usual pillows and 'love' nonsense pictures on the walls. Hey Presto.

The inside of a one bed Gorgie £120k air BnB will look exactly the same as the inside of a Marchmont £240k air BnB flat.

The amount you can get for it per night ? Probably much the same in either place. Very different to a long term rental IMO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 09/08/2018 at 20:29, toreveal said:

Hometrack has been updated for this month and the 1month and 3month growths for Edinburgh are mildly negative.  Imagine it is mostly an effect from the more-expensive properties but still nice to see:

https://www.hometrack.com/uk/insight/uk-cities-house-price-index/

This is nice to see, but the opposite of what ESPC are saying.. Which Index is the more accurate??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Bank of England Base Rate   291 members have voted

    1. 1. What do you predict the Bank of England base rate to be at the end of 2018?


      • .25% or lower
      • .5%
      • .75%
      • 1% or higher

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.