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Str Which Currency, Where ? £gb Safe?

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As we all know, the last few days in the market have been significant in terms of unwinding of postions, globalisation, scare stories and flights to safety ETC .......

Some commentator here (mentioning no names) have said the US$ (and therefore by implication GBP) is doomed.

If this is the case, then why in these times of capital searching *safe havens* is THE US dollar and particularly prices of long dated treausuries enjoying such loyalty?

The flow of capital into US treausuries therefore US$ would seem to indicate that "IT aint over yet" for the greenback, and therefore I would be doing alright by simply keeping my STR pot in an ordinairy UK bank/building society. Rather than the associated hassle of transferring assets into EUROS. AUS$ CAN$ or wot not> :blink: WHADD YU THINK?

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As we all know, the last few days in the market have been significant in terms of unwinding of postions, globalisation, scare stories and flights to safety ETC .......

Some commentator here (mentioning no names) have said the US$ (and therefore by implication GBP) is doomed.

If this is the case, then why in these times of capital searching *safe havens* is THE US dollar and particularly prices of long dated treausuries enjoying such loyalty?

The flow of capital into US treausuries therefore US$ would seem to indicate that "IT aint over yet" for the greenback, and therefore I would be doing alright by simply keeping my STR pot in an ordinairy UK bank/building society. Rather than the associated hassle of transferring assets into EUROS. AUS$ CAN$ or wot not> :blink: WHADD YU THINK?

Best Hard Currencies: The yellow and silver coloured precious metals - outperformed every major currency on the planet for the last 8 years. You can verify that here:

http://www.goldpreciousmetals.com/charts_historic_gbp.asp

If you do decide can handle the hassle:

Best fiat currencies right now: the unwinding carry trade currecies - Swiss franc, Yen, (Major Trend Changes recently occured in those 2),

and next the effectively commodity-backed currencies - Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, and possibly the Brazilian Real..

Worst: US dollar, GBP, Icelandic Kroner and probably the NZ dollar too

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Best Hard Currencies: The yellow and silver coloured precious metals - outperformed every major currency on the planet for the last 8 years. You can verify that here:

http://www.goldpreciousmetals.com/charts_historic_gbp.asp

If you do decide can handle the hassle:

Best fiat currencies right now: the unwinding carry trade currecies - Swiss franc, Yen, (Major Trend Changes recently occured in those 2),

and next the effectively commodity-backed currencies - Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, and possibly the Brazilian Real..

Worst: US dollar, GBP, Icelandic Kroner and probably the NZ dollar too

Agreed but...

What about the Rand? I'm surprised its so weak. I thought this was a 'commoditiy backed' currency?

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House prices are declining in Sterling terms. Holding a STR fund or future deposit in Sterling is perfectly sensible:

It doesn't really matter if domestic inflation ticks up, because it's not bread and petrol you want to buy with this money, it's a house, and house prices are deflating.

It doesn't really matter if the pound weakens against foreign currencies, because it's not imported goods you want to buy with this money, it's a house, and they are priced in pounds.

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As we all know, the last few days in the market have been significant in terms of unwinding of postions, globalisation, scare stories and flights to safety ETC .......

Some commentator here (mentioning no names) have said the US$ (and therefore by implication GBP) is doomed.

If this is the case, then why in these times of capital searching *safe havens* is THE US dollar and particularly prices of long dated treausuries enjoying such loyalty?

The flow of capital into US treausuries therefore US$ would seem to indicate that "IT aint over yet" for the greenback, and therefore I would be doing alright by simply keeping my STR pot in an ordinairy UK bank/building society. Rather than the associated hassle of transferring assets into EUROS. AUS$ CAN$ or wot not> :blink: WHADD YU THINK?

No fiat currency is safe from the coming financial implosion. US treasuries will fare no better. Consider the economy of the USA: total mortgage debts of 10 trillion dollars backed by an asset base depreciating at 20-30% per year. The federal reserve will attempt to stem the tide of economic collapse by taking large swathes of that debt onto its own books but that will only delay the coming reckoning for a few months, not halt it. This is the time when the true consequences of usary will finally be understood by the masses. 1930 was merely a dress rehearsal.

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you should hold sterling if you plan to live i the uk.

protecting your money againt a fall in sterling is the same as speculating vs a different currency. ultimately you will just be speculating with your money like all other currency traders.

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Agreed but...

What about the Rand? I'm surprised its so weak. I thought this was a 'commoditiy backed' currency?

from what i hear the Rand is a crystal Meths backed currency, SA is still sliding down the drain

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If you're wanting to buy a house in the UK in the future then moving your STR fund out of sterling and into another currency adds a further element of risk.

Yields on sterling i.e. interest rates are good anyway compared to most other currencies. Well it all depends on your risk profile. And as the majority of HPCers seem to be permanently a hair's breadth away from the panic button I wouldn't recommend currency speculating.

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re- foreign currency.....

is there anywhere i can better rates than my high street money exchange?......because the difference between the buying and selling rate is so big it would be hard to profit from holding foreign currency unless the £ lost another 12% or so

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anyone any thoughts about the NOK norwegian krone? Opened a short USD/NOK yesterday, already +$6000 profit at mo

apparantly norway has a lot of oil <_<

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re- foreign currency.....

is there anywhere i can better rates than my high street money exchange?......because the difference between the buying and selling rate is so big it would be hard to profit from holding foreign currency unless the £ lost another 12% or so

If you really must, you can do this in several ways:

- spread betting

- open an offshore account with, for example, HSBC in Jersey

- for large sums, use ETFs, although the dealing charge is too much when dealing with small sums

- open an account with www.fxcm.com

All you will be doing by this is re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Avoid all fiat currencies, they will fail.

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Guest The_Oldie
If you're wanting to buy a house in the UK in the future then moving your STR fund out of sterling and into another currency adds a further element of risk.

Yields on sterling i.e. interest rates are good anyway compared to most other currencies. Well it all depends on your risk profile. And as the majority of HPCers seem to be permanently a hair's breadth away from the panic button I wouldn't recommend currency speculating.

I agree, best to hold the currency(s) that you will be spending. In my case EUR & GBP.

Edit: Although I am considering switching some GBP that I won't be needing for a few years into CHF, pure speculation though.

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I agree, best to hold the currency(s) that you will be spending. In my case EUR & GBP.

Spend it whilst it still has value, whatever currency it's in is all I can advise.

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House prices are declining in Sterling terms. Holding a STR fund or future deposit in Sterling is perfectly sensible:

It doesn't really matter if domestic inflation ticks up, because it's not bread and petrol you want to buy with this money, it's a house, and house prices are deflating.

It doesn't really matter if the pound weakens against foreign currencies, because it's not imported goods you want to buy with this money, it's a house, and they are priced in pounds.

Agree 100% , although SOME of the self appointed currency "experts" on here will tell you to do otherwise :rolleyes:

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Agree 100% , although SOME of the self appointed currency "experts" on here will tell you to do otherwise :rolleyes:

Sure good idea, but why not HEDGE a small portion of your STR fund to protect you against a currency value collapse. The fundamentals of GBP look awfully weak right now. The 2 things propping it up, HPI and North Sea Oil exports both came to an end last year. Not to mention a bleak demographic outlook as the baby boomers start to retire in earnest. So fundamentally GBP has a lot of downside risk. Putting 10-20% in gold and other currencies seems rather prudent to me.. ;)

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As we all know, the last few days in the market have been significant in terms of unwinding of postions, globalisation, scare stories and flights to safety ETC .......

Some commentator here (mentioning no names) have said the US$ (and therefore by implication GBP) is doomed.

If this is the case, then why in these times of capital searching *safe havens* is THE US dollar and particularly prices of long dated treausuries enjoying such loyalty?

The flow of capital into US treausuries therefore US$ would seem to indicate that "IT aint over yet" for the greenback, and therefore I would be doing alright by simply keeping my STR pot in an ordinairy UK bank/building society. Rather than the associated hassle of transferring assets into EUROS. AUS$ CAN$ or wot not> :blink: WHADD YU THINK?

Well I would recommend the Euro, but hang on an Italian Bank is going to collapse the currency!

The GBP, well no Gordon Brown has knackered the economy for ever,

The Dollar, don't even go there,

The Canadian Dollar? too linked to the US dollar,

The Swiss Franc? too linked to the Euro,

The Japanese Yen? The economy's a basket case, low interest rates, that's a no, no,

Australian Dollar? Danger of devaluation,

NZ dollar? Likewise,

Eastern European currencies? They're all linked to the Euro and want to join it,

Zimbabwe Dollar? Sorry got a bit silly there,

Gold? Way overpriced, going to crash

Wheat? Way overpriced going to crash

Oil, priced in dollars,

Bonds? Don't trust governments, big deficits, house of cards,

How about bricks and mortar? Well you've got to live somewhere!

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No fiat currency is safe from the coming financial implosion.

OK, the Mad Max scenario. :P

I agree, best to hold the currency(s) that you will be spending. In my case EUR & GBP.

Edit: Although I am considering switching some GBP that I won't be needing for a few years into CHF, pure speculation though.

Sure good idea, but why not HEDGE a small portion of your STR fund to protect you against a currency value collapse. The fundamentals of GBP look awfully weak right now. The 2 things propping it up, HPI and North Sea Oil exports both came to an end last year. Not to mention a bleak demographic outlook as the baby boomers start to retire in earnest. So fundamentally GBP has a lot of downside risk. Putting 10-20% in gold and other currencies seems rather prudent to me.. ;)

IMO these posts indicate the best option for those that need a low risk strategy on their STR funds.

On historical evidence, GBP could fall to around 85 (index value) from current 95 - its already fallen from around 105 last year. It fell to a low of 85 following the ERM exit in the early 1990s. Of course this time it might be worse, or it might not.

At the same time you can earn over 6% interest gross in a UK bank, offsetting this decline over two years.

The next consideration is inflation, IMO currently running at 5 to 10% a year. Obviously if you expect hyperinflation (and understand what that means), you might want to take a different course of action.

By comparsion, house prices could fall by 50% over the next couple of years. So your cash could effectively decline by the real rate of inflation whilst houses become much more affordable.

I agree that it may be useful to hedge a small proportion against JPY or CHF (using spead bets or ETFs, if you are confident using these) but I agree that the spreads on high street purchases would not make this a viable option.

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The Japanese Yen? The economy's a basket case, low interest rates, that's a no, no,

if (Low interest rates == almost can't go any lower), difficult to devalue? Huge national debt and a virtually hung parliament so very difficult to buy other currencies to offset the unwinding carry? Iran told them they can't use dollars any more to buy oil? Anyone?

Edited by agb41

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Well I would recommend the Euro, but hang on an Italian Bank is going to collapse the currency!

The GBP, well no Gordon Brown has knackered the economy for ever,

The Dollar, don't even go there,

The Canadian Dollar? too linked to the US dollar,

The Swiss Franc? too linked to the Euro,

The Japanese Yen? The economy's a basket case, low interest rates, that's a no, no,

Australian Dollar? Danger of devaluation,

NZ dollar? Likewise,

Eastern European currencies? They're all linked to the Euro and want to join it,

Zimbabwe Dollar? Sorry got a bit silly there,

Gold? Way overpriced, going to crash

Wheat? Way overpriced going to crash

Oil, priced in dollars,

Bonds? Don't trust governments, big deficits, house of cards,

Yeah but.....it's the one eyed man thing though isn't it? Maybe the new parrotdime will be to find the least worst investments? You are right , Japan's economy is a basket case with almost zero interest rates but the Yen has gone from 251 to the Pound to 205 since last August.....there's always the unexpected isn't there.

Edited by council dweller

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Agreed but...

What about the Rand? I'm surprised its so weak. I thought this was a 'commoditiy backed' currency?

The people we've met seem to take the crime and the power situation in good stride. You can probably get used to living inside walled compounds with electrified fences. You seem them everywhere. Of course they are useless when the power is out. But it is amazing how the passage of time can make what seems extraordinary rather ordinary.

--One day you're used to flipping the light switch on and getting light, the next you're ready for random 15 minute intervals throughout your day where the lights go out. People adapt.

--But you wouldn't call it progress, would you? A world where you travel in cars with tracking devices between one guard post and another isn't exactly a free and open place. Yet what's happening here is probably a preview of the security arrangements you will have to get used to in some parts of the world in the next five years.

--It is not just the energy problem. That alone would be difficult for government's to meet, especially those that haven't planned for it (and how many have?). What you're seeing here in South Africa is the inability of large central governments to meet the basic security needs of their citizens.

--Government's can't guarantee law and order any longer, at least not everywhere. Certain hubs and nodes can be protected by "hardening" them, putting up fences, guardhouses, and controlling who gets in. But in between those nodes, it is less safe. And whole densely populated areas are completely outside the security network.

--For example, we were told that no one goes down to downtown Johannesburg any longer. Business has moved to the suburbs, in little modern fortresses of commerce. These new protected business parks occupy what used to be farmland. They also can take hours to get to, if you're travelling from your own residential enclave.

--In a world of rising energy and food prices, you have to wonder how sustainable this commercial model is too. It is not that different from America's suburban economy. That economy is, "a living arrangement with no future," according to our friend Jim Kunstler. He is probably right.

--No tipping point has been reached yet, though. People here are like people everywhere. They work. They try and get their kids into the right schools. They complain about taxes, rising prices, and bad government. The only difference is that in South Africa, there are visible signs of the government's inability to provide for the basic needs of its people. We think we know where this leads... but will leave that for another day. Until then...

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As we all know, the last few days in the market have been significant in terms of unwinding of postions, globalisation, scare stories and flights to safety ETC .......

Some commentator here (mentioning no names) have said the US$ (and therefore by implication GBP) is doomed.

If this is the case, then why in these times of capital searching *safe havens* is THE US dollar and particularly prices of long dated treausuries enjoying such loyalty?

The flow of capital into US treausuries therefore US$ would seem to indicate that "IT aint over yet" for the greenback, and therefore I would be doing alright by simply keeping my STR pot in an ordinairy UK bank/building society. Rather than the associated hassle of transferring assets into EUROS. AUS$ CAN$ or wot not> :blink: WHADD YU THINK?

Don't keep all your money in cash!

In my opinion, the only cash you should keep on hand is roughly six months worth of living expenses.

You should continue to invest all of your other money in assets that are going to benefit from what the Fed is doing to the dollar, including ...

#1. Select foreign currencies, which are rising in value against the dollar, and where you can also get a nice return. Two of my favorites are still the New Zealand and Australian dollars.

#2. Select foreign stock markets, especially those that are rich in natural resources and where billions of new consumers are driving their economies upward. Examples: China, India, and most of Southeast Asia.

#3. Select natural resources and the companies that control in-demand commodities ... the very same commodities that are also rising in value as the dollar plunges.

The list includes gold ... oil ... gas ... iron ... steel ... aluminum ... zinc ... nickel ... uranium ... wheat ... corn ... soybeans ... sugar ... coffee ... even water

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As we all know, the last few days in the market have been significant in terms of unwinding of postions, globalisation, scare stories and flights to safety ETC .......

Some commentator here (mentioning no names) have said the US$ (and therefore by implication GBP) is doomed.

If this is the case, then why in these times of capital searching *safe havens* is THE US dollar and particularly prices of long dated treausuries enjoying such loyalty?

The flow of capital into US treausuries therefore US$ would seem to indicate that "IT aint over yet" for the greenback, and therefore I would be doing alright by simply keeping my STR pot in an ordinairy UK bank/building society. Rather than the associated hassle of transferring assets into EUROS. AUS$ CAN$ or wot not> :blink: WHADD YU THINK?

...life is about managing risk...you can't run away from it even after STR....you just face a different one (risk) .....you just need to spend some time researching and switching .....it can turn into fun..... <_<

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  • 292 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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