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How Bad Will The Mortgage Crisis Get? - Us Time Magazine

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Cheers. It's interesting that with the small price falls we've had so far, we've had Northern Rock and a few other biggies pushed to the edge. Yet none of these forecasts even attempt to factor in the knock-ons of the loss of major banks and hedge funds, as much higher losses hit.

Perhaps it's just because such wholesale catastrophes would lead to outlandish national government, even global responses, so you just get lost in a hypothetical wilderness. But if I had money at risk in these things, I would want to know the worst cases, so I could position myself accordingly. In effect, I'm surprised serious analysts are in such denial. (Then, I suppose they were in denial all the way up too.)

They might not be in denial, they just cannot say it in public because that would ruin both their careers and the companies they work for.

Aren't all the analysts employed by financial institutions?

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I agree. No one ever seems to factor in the effects of the effects - the second, then third round of spillovers, and so on.

Hello Durch. I seem to remember that you had a feeling in your bones of 90% falls...are you still feeling that way?

Peter.

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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