Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
OLDFTB

Dow Getting Near To The Magic 12000?

Recommended Posts

If the Dow did fall below 12000, do the market folk on here think that it'd just spiral downwards on the basis that a psychological floor has fallen in, or would it be likely just to flit in and out like it has done for the last month or two with seemingly random +100, +200, -100, -200 day after day?

I mean, clearly, from a long term perspective, it's falling, but would we see massive falls or fluctuations?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FWIW - I think the market has had it's pull back and will rally now.

If it breaches 12800 strongly, you'll be singing E John Esq - Rocket Man...

No joke.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
FWIW - I think the market has had it's pull back and will rally now.

If it breaches 12800 strongly, you'll be singing E John Esq - Rocket Man...

No joke.

Hi FP,

You are the only one posting bullish views on the stock markets, what is going to cause this reversal? It not like bouncing back from an over correction because this decline has been so well managed it has not had a single days panic where people may have over sold.

Always like getting the contrarian view because I quite like being in that camp!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FP, please don't let us be delivered from the Gold rampers only to be met by the Stock rampers.......!

The fundamentals are so lousy 12800 would either be the biggest show of collective insanity or complete ineptitude on the part of the market, either way it would be highly temporary before an almighty plunge.

Every single economic commentator worth reading is just waiting for the market to come to its sense and accept the inevitable. Then it will plunge.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi FP,

You are the only one posting bullish views on the stock markets, what is going to cause this reversal? It not like bouncing back from an over correction because this decline has been so well managed it has not had a single days panic where people may have over sold.

Always like getting the contrarian view because I quite like being in that camp!

Not contrarian for the sake of it, me.

$ finished its weakening against ¥, I think. Who knows?

Dow etc not gone lower than Jan 22nd/23rd.

No selling volumes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12053.91

Down 204.99

Must check out that daily 2:15 attempted pump later on!

Its a little early today.

20:03 - 12085

20:09 - 12195 so thats a 110 point jump

Its so obvious its a sham its not even funny anymore. They have no shame

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Its a little early today.

20:03 - 12085

20:09 - 12195 so thats a 110 point jump

Its so obvious its a sham its not even funny anymore. They have no shame

sorry mate but you're absolutely clueless - if you watched how the market works you could actually make a lot of money out of it

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
sorry mate but you're absolutely clueless - if you watched how the market works you could actually make a lot of money out of it

Just because I don't fully understand how the market works does not make me clueless. So did you put your money where your mouth was then, or do you just like pissing in from the outside?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
sorry mate but you're absolutely clueless - if you watched how the market works you could actually make a lot of money out of it

Not sure he is completely clueless, just making an observation of a very familiar pattern of a big recovery near the end of a bad session after a recent big fall which dramatically improves sentiment. Given all that has gone on the market has not slipped up once. It has clearly fallen, but in a way that has avoided panic. If it was allowed to fall a quickly as it has risen at times recently on these quick burst “recoveries” we would be having a different conversation trying to call a natural bottom.

This is not a normal market and support levels have little to do with it although they are trying to form a "bottom" with the last month has being a very actively manipulated period. See attached graph, you can see manipulation on a micro level in the many day charts I have posted but you can also see it on a macro level now with the attempt to form this bottom.

I don’t believe that they are trying to support stocks to the degree we get complete recovery I just don't think the system could handle a stock market crash atm which is clearly what they are trying to avoid.

Picture1.jpg

post-6129-1204666328_thumb.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This is not a normal market and support levels have little to do with it although they are trying to form a "bottom" with the last month has being a very actively manipulated period. See attached graph, you can see manipulation on a micro level in the many day charts I have posted but you can also see it on a macro level now with the attempt to form this bottom.

I don’t believe that they are trying to support stocks to the degree we get complete recovery I just don't think the system could handle a stock market crash atm which is clearly what they are trying to avoid.

Sorry Confounded, much as I respect you as a poster, in this instance you are talking ********. People on here need to get away from the idea that 'THEY' won't let it happen, in the same way as people say to me that 'THEY' won't let the housing market crash.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Bloomberg say DOW's late recovery today based on reports on progress with AMBAC deal.

Looking at the huge ABX meltdown, they may be pi$$ing in the wind.

Funny how the good old tried-and-tested AMBAC rescue story always breaks out every time the DOW flirts with 12k ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Funny how the good old tried-and-tested AMBAC rescue story always breaks out every time the DOW flirts with 12k ;)

Yep. It's becoming monotonous. Still, I enjoy the volatility. I'm waiting for 12700 again so I can get back to shorting again.

Edited by D'oh

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sorry Confounded, much as I respect you as a poster, in this instance you are talking ********. People on here need to get away from the idea that 'THEY' won't let it happen, in the same way as people say to me that 'THEY' won't let the housing market crash.

TEIN, I am only presenting a different theory to your more orthodox and credible view. I very much want to get the message across the DOW has effectively been taken over for the past 6 months at least, and I even believe there was an influence a year ago when they ramped it up from the 12,000 region after the March 07 blip where people woke up to the mess but then the market almost went exponential buying them some extra ground they could afford to loose. We are only back down to that level, I call that a pretty good result so far.

It is not so much a case of them not letting it happen (I have not gone long on stocks or houses) more a case of doing all they can to prevent a crash. Doing this by insuring there has been no back to back falls of over 200 points. The last 2 days have been classic buffer days, with yesterday looking a bit dicey they stepped in a rolled out another rumour. So far not one of the rumours that have caused these dramatic rebounds have come to anything? I don’t have a lot of respect for the city boys but I am pretty certain they would be seeing through this routine by now if they were not cooperating.

There is nothing sinister about this, and as pointed out in other posts our system could not take a SM crash on top of everything else that has been going on, so it is no surprise a coordinated response has been achieved to deliver, given the circumstances, a remarkably stable market. Look to the Nikkei (very twitchy at the moment because I think they have a pretty good understanding of where this is going!). Two flat days on the DOW has resulted in 2 flat days on the Nikkei. The FTSE will be up today rejoicing that the DOW did not fall as much as expected.

It is only the bigger picture view I have and it may be wrong! :rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yep. It's becoming monotonous. Still, I enjoy the volatility. I'm waiting for 12700 again so I can get back to shorting again.

Be v v careful. It may go through it this time. Watch $:¥

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Need to be v. careful about calling the turn in stocks right now.

Does anybody remember Mervyn making light of the sub prime crisis a while back, by saying that even at the high level of $200bn write offs, this only represents 1.5% of the capitalisation of all US stocks.

Well, lets be generous and say the Dow trades on c.16 times trailing earnings, this would represent a collapse in profits of 25% this year. Factor in a recession, a factor of $200bn write offs and an over adjustment and it could look horrible. Beware.

Also factor in only 12 more opportunities to cut base rates @ 25bps. What happens when they get to zero ???

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
FP, are you some kind of inverse CGNAO? :lol:

Very cryptic. Tell us more

Er, about what? I already said why I think the bottom has happened. 12700/800 has been strong resistance but it may not be this time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Er, about what? I already said why I think the bottom has happened. 12700/800 has been strong resistance but it may not be this time.

Hmmmm. Did you use support & resistance to decide on when to STR in 2002?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 296 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.