Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
PropertyAnalyser

Hbos Halifax Seasonal Adjustment Chart

Recommended Posts

I have put together a chart showing the seasonal adjustments made by Halifax over the last 25 years.

The chart shows a simple ratio of adjusted prices over non-adjusted prices and to my surprise there is a very large spread within each month. i.e. March adjustments have varied from around +1 to -1.

The important thing is the fact that the trend starts to go negative next month and stays that way for 6 long months.

That means we are going to need non-adjusted +1% each month over the summer just to prevent reported falls.

I have absolutly no doubt that we will see negative YoY prices in most indices in Q2 2008.

Stuart

HBOS1.gif

post-4269-1204638718_thumb.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmm prices are higher during the HPI season and then dip as we enter the cold long nights of the HPC season. Do you think they'll adjust to mask that as well, so as to give a balanced picture of course.

I notice January 08 is the higher than all the previous years....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd just like to take this opportunity to phone Majestic and get them to pre-order a case of Laurent Perrier Rose' to be delivered on the day that the figures for June are released. That's going to be a fine day for a "sickie" and a spot of all day drinking. Hope the weather is nice enough for a barbeque.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'd just like to take this opportunity to phone Majestic and get them to pre-order a case of Laurent Perrier Rose' to be delivered on the day that the figures for June are released. That's going to be a fine day for a "sickie" and a spot of all day drinking. Hope the weather is nice enough for a barbeque.

Are you allowed to have a barbeque at your rented property? :P

p.s. great work Stuart. It really shows how much the figures can be skewed one way (or the other).

Edited by Disillusioned

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Are you allowed to have a barbeque at your rented property? :P

p.s. great work Stuart. It really shows how much the figures can be skewed one way (or the other).

Absolutely. And the best thing is that if we run out of coals I just break up some more of the landlord's furniture as the letting agent never got me to sign the inventory sheet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great stuff Stuart.

From my post on the other Halifax thread, stable prices in Feb could show up between -1 and -1.4%

Do you have any guesses as what the adjustment would be in Feb?

My guess is another all time high of around 2.2%

I wouldn't be surprised by a small unadjusted rise in the monthly figures. On these low volumes, that sort of thing will happen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Great stuff Stuart.

From my post on the other Halifax thread, stable prices in Feb could show up between -1 and -1.4%

Do you have any guesses as what the adjustment would be in Feb?

My guess is another all time high of around 2.2%

I wouldn't be surprised by a small unadjusted rise in the monthly figures. On these low volumes, that sort of thing will happen.

I suspect an adjustment of +1.9% for Feb 2008, but would not be surprised by a record breaking 2.5% !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I suspect an adjustment of +1.9% for Feb 2008, but would not be surprised by a record breaking 2.5% !

They can't use an unprecedented seasoning rate because otherwise there's bound to be a journalist that will pick them up on it and will highlight the deception publically.........

HAHAHAHA!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I have put together a chart showing the seasonal adjustments made by Halifax over the last 25 years.

The chart shows a simple ratio of adjusted prices over non-adjusted prices and to my surprise there is a very large spread within each month. i.e. March adjustments have varied from around +1 to -1.

The important thing is the fact that the trend starts to go negative next month and stays that way for 6 long months.

That means we are going to need non-adjusted +1% each month over the summer just to prevent reported falls.

I have absolutly no doubt that we will see negative YoY prices in most indices in Q2 2008.

Stuart

HBOS1.gif

Agree. I had predicted (NSS really) that the turnaround in our market would be by the end of Q2 2007 and that it takes about a year for YoY negative to show up. It is what happened in our mirror market (Southern California). Once YoY negative hits the VIs can no longer use terms such as "house price growth" or "house prices slowing." They must use more scary terminology such as "falling" or "dropping." The fear of loss is greater than the desire for gain which is why momentum in a crash cycle builds so quickly.

A crash in house prices is about the only certainty we have out there at the moment.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
They can't use an unprecedented seasoning rate because otherwise there's bound to be a journalist that will pick them up on it and will highlight the deception publically.........

HAHAHAHA!

:lol:

Anne Ashworth where are you?

WHERE ARE YOU?

Let's be 'avin' you.

Anyway it;s the best of both worlds for them, because if there is a tiny weeny rise one month they can ignore the seasonal 6% drop and focus on that. *****

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 298 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.