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dubsie

12 Months Doomtable

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I'm looking at the various economic data coming in at the moment and although things are holding up at the moment I think in 12 months time it could be very differnent.

Inflation and food shortages, looking very likely and the UK is a prime target as a net food importer.

Oil prices, these are soaring but may also plunge....either way it's bad news for everyone. Same applies to other commodities.

US economy in serious trouble and is likely to take the rest of the world with them, Gordon can't honestly think that our economy is in a better position to deal with this.

WAR is coming at a time when we can't afford one. Look at developments across the world, trust me war is on its way and when it kicks off it's going involve conscription.

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I'm looking at the various economic data coming in at the moment and although things are holding up at the moment I think in 12 months time it could be very differnent.

Inflation and food shortages, looking very likely and the UK is a prime target as a net food importer.

Oil prices, these are soaring but may also plunge....either way it's bad news for everyone. Same applies to other commodities.

US economy in serious trouble and is likely to take the rest of the world with them, Gordon can't honestly think that our economy is in a better position to deal with this.

WAR is coming at a time when we can't afford one. Look at developments across the world, trust me war is on its way and when it kicks off it's going involve conscription.

Thank goodness - for a moment I thought you had written 'constipation'!

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WAR is coming at a time when we can't afford one. Look at developments across the world, trust me war is on its way and when it kicks off it's going involve conscription.

Nah, more nationalism and isolationist pressures first. EU treaty, foreigners nicking our jobs, Islamaphobia, US sub-prime sinking the world etc. Stir in a healthy dose of domestic hatred.. smokers, drinkers, SUV drivers, people with carrier bags. Add a large dollop of unemployment.

There's not the stomach, soldiers or money for another war at the moment. The economy has taken over for now, things will stay quiet until oil is down in the $50-$60 range. A few years away at the least.

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WAR is coming at a time when we can't afford one. Look at developments across the world, trust me war is on its way and when it kicks off it's going involve conscription.

Unlikely, we can't even afford a war now..how will the government find the cash to run and recruit a large conscripted army? Unless of course you mean large groups of chavs standing infront of the Chinese tanks wearing thier mums saucepan on their heads armed with pitchforks ala Dads Army? :P

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Nah, more nationalism and isolationist pressures first. EU treaty, foreigners nicking our jobs, Islamaphobia, US sub-prime sinking the world etc. Stir in a healthy dose of domestic hatred.. smokers, drinkers, SUV drivers, people with carrier bags. Add a large dollop of unemployment.

There's not the stomach, soldiers or money for another war at the moment. The economy has taken over for now, things will stay quiet until oil is down in the $50-$60 range. A few years away at the least.

There aren't enough bullets let alone clever missles and bombs. We are buying loads of them from NATO countries that, ahem, do not fight. The Yanks have these huge factories in the Mid-West churning them out but they cannot keep up with demand. They are a few years away from having enough smart missles to go bomb Iran.

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Unlikely, we can't even afford a war now..how will the government find the cash to run and recruit a large conscripted army? Unless of course you mean large groups of chavs standing infront of the Chinese tanks wearing thier mums saucepan on their heads armed with pitchforks ala Dads Army? :P

You won't have a choice and money doesn't come into it. If Iran gets close to nukes....then Israel will attack Iran and probably drag in the rest of the middle east. At that point we get dragged in, the USA and Europe. Who knows where Russia will stand but you can bet a dollar that Korea will pick Iran. South America tensions are brewing with the American backed columbian government against Chavez...could also be a conflict here also.

Australia will be dragged in and so will Japan and then maybe even China......shit storm is on its way.

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Look at developments across the world, trust me war is on its way and when it kicks off it's going involve conscription.

I look at "developments across the world" and I see recessions, not that much war. Rather than having to trust you on this, can you tell us how and why this is going to happen?

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There's not the stomach, soldiers or money for another war at the moment.

I agree. And in particular a conscription war involving Europe or the US is virtually impossible for the next decade at least. Ironically it's today's extreme resistance to armed intervention that could make war more likely in future decades, but that's just conjecture that's so speculative its almost pointless to pursue.

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I look at "developments across the world" and I see recessions, not that much war. Rather than having to trust you on this, can you tell us how and why this is going to happen?

Look at what is happening in the middle east and look at the relationship with Russia. Iran is gunning for Iraq and I know for sure the yanks don't like it one bit. If Iran gets nukes which it clearly wants then Israel will go to war and drag the west in. As we don't have troops then it will certainly involve conscripts.

Recessions often mean war as they increase tensions.

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You won't have a choice and money doesn't come into it. If Iran gets close to nukes....then Israel will attack Iran and probably drag in the rest of the middle east. At that point we get dragged in, the USA and Europe. Who knows where Russia will stand but you can bet a dollar that Korea will pick Iran. South America tensions are brewing with the American backed columbian government against Chavez...could also be a conflict here also.

Australia will be dragged in and so will Japan and then maybe even China......shit storm is on its way.

i doubt it.

if iran gets some nukes and israel decides to attack it, then thats up to the people livng in israel.

it has nothing to do with me.

to me i feel there is a solution in that area, but both sides have to compromise some.

no one wants to compromise. so have a fight !!

not sure why israel would expect this to be anyone elses big problem.

smacks of franz ferdinand style nation posturing. not something id be getting dragged into.

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Look at what is happening in the middle east and look at the relationship with Russia. Iran is gunning for Iraq and I know for sure the yanks don't like it one bit. If Iran gets nukes which it clearly wants then Israel will go to war and drag the west in. As we don't have troops then it will certainly involve conscripts.

Recessions often mean war as they increase tensions.

Hmm. Interesting. Israel will drag the USA in, I probably agree. But will Europe back Israel, especially if they chuck the first bomb? I reckon Europe will do a Pontius Pilate and wash their hands, saying, in effect, A Plague on Both your Houses (to mix literary allusions up a bit!) At which point the US will wash their hands of Europe, which could have all sorts of results.

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Look at what is happening in the middle east and look at the relationship with Russia. Iran is gunning for Iraq and I know for sure the yanks don't like it one bit. If Iran gets nukes which it clearly wants then Israel will go to war and drag the west in. As we don't have troops then it will certainly involve conscripts.

Recessions often mean war as they increase tensions.

This is one possible outcome out of the billions. Another one is peace. Another one is being invaded by green men. All possible futures, none of which can be ruled out or in.

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I'm looking at the various economic data coming in at the moment and although things are holding up at the moment I think in 12 months time it could be very differnent.

Inflation and food shortages, looking very likely and the UK is a prime target as a net food importer.

Oil prices, these are soaring but may also plunge....either way it's bad news for everyone. Same applies to other commodities.

US economy in serious trouble and is likely to take the rest of the world with them, Gordon can't honestly think that our economy is in a better position to deal with this.

WAR is coming at a time when we can't afford one. Look at developments across the world, trust me war is on its way and when it kicks off it's going involve conscription.

It sounds like Armageddon is brewing with some lakes of glass * to soon be forming around the state of Israel. :ph34r:

Gordon's miracle is vulnerable because we are so dependent on financial services. We are also in moredebt than anyone else, including Americans. The reason we are not collapsing like the US is all to do with the HPC lag. Its just starting here whereas its about 18 months old in the US.

Bottom line: I think we have entered an era of unprecedented uncertainty and things are going to get many times worse than they are now as the banks have only revealed a fraction of the true bill for the Gordonesque credit binge worldwide.

_________________

* The effect a nuclear explosion has when detonated in a sandy area.

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Look at what is happening in the middle east and look at the relationship with Russia. Iran is gunning for Iraq and I know for sure the yanks don't like it one bit. If Iran gets nukes which it clearly wants then Israel will go to war and drag the west in. As we don't have troops then it will certainly involve conscripts.

Recessions often mean war as they increase tensions.

there is something to be said that a good war can help kick start the economy, but to do that, the govt needs money itself and now we have an extra £100bn liability (with no return that I can see), then that "chance" may be missed.

Btw, right freds dead, I love the way you say "Israel may invade Iran, but that's nothing to do with me!" made me LOL. I too think that, when the bombs fall on our heads, we must remember to remind them not to kill us! ;-)

Dubsie. Do you drive a taxi and have an Australian/American accent?

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Gordon's miracle is vulnerable because we are so dependent on financial services.

fair point that. If war / recession / famine etc did come then having the worlds financial headquarters in out back yeard aint gonna save us!!

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This is one possible outcome out of the billions. Another one is peace. Another one is being invaded by green men. All possible futures, none of which can be ruled out or in.

One difference, Israel have officially stated if Iran goes for the bomb they will go for first strike even if it means nuclear. I think you forget how powerful Israel are and how much hardware they have. If they attack they will also attack any other threat as well...including its allies. America and Britain will back Israel and we will get dragged in....100%.

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Look at what is happening in the middle east and look at the relationship with Russia. Iran is gunning for Iraq and I know for sure the yanks don't like it one bit. If Iran gets nukes which it clearly wants then Israel will go to war and drag the west in. As we don't have troops then it will certainly involve conscripts.

Recessions often mean war as they increase tensions.

Iran won't make nukes, Israel will blow up anything that looks capable for producing the raw parts for one. Whether or not Syria or Egypt would be willing to go to war with Israel is another matter but whether they would do better than past wars remains to be seen.

Irans only chance of nukes is to buy some. Even then it would be more a posturing device. Nuke Israel and you Egyptian and Syrian allies suddenly have a radioactive mess on their doorsteps that they won't be to happy about.

Irans real agenda is getting its hands on Iraqs southern oil and keeping the westernization of its youth from getting out of hand.

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dubsie man, you gots to step away from this site for a while. Get out in the early spring air, take a couple of bottles of ale, sit on a hill for a bit and check out the "outside". Life's coming back and the newborn lambs are just too wee :)

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A few years ago I found my Dad's diary from 1940 .

It went like this (don't remember the exact dates).

March 9th....very cold today, went rabbiting.

March 10th...Germany invades Belgium.

March 11th...went rabbiting.

The point is that even with the Nazis heading in this direction, life went on.(Btw, he was 29 at the time) If there's war in Iran....spose I'll have to learn how to catch rabbits.

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One difference, Israel have officially stated if Iran goes for the bomb they will go for first strike even if it means nuclear. I think you forget how powerful Israel are and how much hardware they have. If they attack they will also attack any other threat as well...including its allies. America and Britain will back Israel and we will get dragged in....100%.

why would we be dragged into it ? people will pick it to bits and decide not to include themselves.

i just cant see the british public going for it this time. not after WW1.

the days when you can get the rabble in line and conscripted yes sir no sir "hurrah for the king" are long gone.

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lsrael is not goin g to "nuke" anyone - I have never read such alarmist nonsense. If Israel "nuked" Iran then this would start World War Three (do you think Russia and China would simply sit back as nuclear weapons detonate in their back yard???).

I actually think the world is a safer place then it was since the Cold War ended in 1991. We have had one lone hegemon, the USA, and IMO an unchecked and omnipotent hegemon equals a dangerous world. That is why I firmly believe we actually lived in a safer world under the Cold War as checks and balances, stops one power having total domination.

We are now entering a very interesting period in world history. China is already an economic superpower and it will soon equal the US in almost every department. The Russian bear has also woken up and Putin/Medeved will not let NATO/EU/US encroach closer to Moscow (good on them I say, would we allow China/Russia to build anti-missile systems in Ireland or France???). These influences provide a strong counter balance to US hegemony.

However, I do agree that history tells us that countries in the early stages of recession can opt to go to war in order to "kick-start" the economy. Do you remember GWB's dad, Thatcher and Mitterand starting the first Gulf War in 1990? However, things are different this time. In 1990 the USSR was a basket case and the West knew that the Soviet's could not stop them. Also, this time the West (notably the aggressive Anglo-countries) have very stretched resources due to other imperial ventures in Iraq and Afganistan. Finally, I think it is different this time because if we are about to head in Great Depression II then their is simply not the money to start another war.

One thing is sure though and that is the UK will follow the rest of the west (kicking and screaming) into a massive housing slump! ;)

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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