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dude wheres my house

Gentle Decline Or Financial Armegedon

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5+% taking houses down more than 20% gets my vote.

The media is beginning to turn to negative sentiment, accelerating the downward trend.

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Its not really the sentiment that has got me on this site at 1130 at night, i always expected that to happen.

Its the way the data and markets that i keep an eye on are reacting to very little downside so far. On the credit front in particular it seems to be seizng up

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Guest Skint Academic

I was being conservative in the range of what could happen and said 50% falls.

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I've put down for a couple of banks going pop, but I don't think we'll actually get to find out which ones.

Translation into house price falls over 5 years of approx 50% in real terms. Wages static, and Masterchef/Gardeners World/Grand Designs turning into Baking the Basics/Grow Your Own Spuds/Make Do and Mend.

I'm optimistacally thinking in about 5 years we'll start growing a manufacturing skills economy again, but we'll be working for German solar cell manufacturers, invested in by the Chinese. We'll also have quite a few aerospace skills heading to Russia for the new state sponsored Russian version of Airbus. Airbus will be part owned by the Chinese.

I think in a decades time we might start building ships again.

Edited by shippers

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Good golly, theres a bunch of idiots left here tonight.

The most popular option by far is 50% falls. 40% of voters as of now have voted for this, but not for the next option which includes "serious problems", including an example of a couple of banks going pop.

1) Do you have any idea how uber-bear 50% drops are? Hell, even after the black death, prices only fell by a third.

2) If 50% drops do come, they'll come after the turmoil. Things are already scary messy, and so far, only the USA has gone YOY. Wait till they go down by 10% nationally, and we go YOY.

There are a lot of bears expecting a consequence-free crash. But it does not work that way. Booms lead to busts, and busts hurt.

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I was drunk.

Fair enough.

Err, You can stop doing the shrek-kitty-eyes-treatment now.

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Good golly, theres a bunch of idiots left here tonight.

The most popular option by far is 50% falls. 40% of voters as of now have voted for this, but not for the next option which includes "serious problems", including an example of a couple of banks going pop.

1) Do you have any idea how uber-bear 50% drops are? Hell, even after the black death, prices only fell by a third.

2) If 50% drops do come, they'll come after the turmoil. Things are already scary messy, and so far, only the USA has gone YOY. Wait till they go down by 10% nationally, and we go YOY.

There are a lot of bears expecting a consequence-free crash. But it does not work that way. Booms lead to busts, and busts hurt.

I'm far from expecting a consequence-free crash, if we only had the manufacturing weaknesses in our economy compared to the BRICS we would already be looking to an economic downturn as power shifts, however we've also got to add the downside correction to a massive speculative bubble, financed by some huge global banking stupidity, and an expensive war.

China isn't big enough yet to take over the shortfall of America's decline. There's going to be a hell of an adjustment, and the UK especially IMHO has painted itself into a corner.

I wouldn't say it'll be an instant 50%, but over 5 years, 10% drop each year in real terms is certainly possible. Whether it stops there is the more worrying point.

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Guest tenant super
Good golly, theres a bunch of idiots left here tonight.

The most popular option by far is 50% falls. 40% of voters as of now have voted for this, but not for the next option which includes "serious problems", including an example of a couple of banks going pop.

1) Do you have any idea how uber-bear 50% drops are? Hell, even after the black death, prices only fell by a third.

2) If 50% drops do come, they'll come after the turmoil. Things are already scary messy, and so far, only the USA has gone YOY. Wait till they go down by 10% nationally, and we go YOY.

There are a lot of bears expecting a consequence-free crash. But it does not work that way. Booms lead to busts, and busts hurt.

Timm, it's hardly surprising a gentlemens thoughts turn to a a large bust at this time of the evening.

Furthermore and may I add, I find it objectionable being smeared as an idiot by a poster who not only manages to juxtapose two comically contradictory bullet points but also manages to mock uber bears for naivity whilst claiming to be a resident of Apocalypse! :lol:

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Guest Steve Cook
Timm, it's hardly surprising a gentleman's thoughts turn to a large bust at this time of the evening....

:lol:

Steve

Edited by Steve Cook

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I'm far from expecting a consequence-free crash, if we only had the manufacturing weaknesses in our economy compared to the BRICS we would already be looking to an economic downturn as power shifts, however we've also got to add the downside correction to a massive speculative bubble, financed by some huge global banking stupidity, and an expensive war.

China isn't big enough yet to take over the shortfall of America's decline. There's going to be a hell of an adjustment, and the UK especially IMHO has painted itself into a corner.

I wouldn't say it'll be an instant 50%, but over 5 years, 10% drop each year in real terms is certainly possible. Whether it stops there is the more worrying point.

I don't disagree with any of the above, but I think you've missed my point. From the fact you've replied to my post, I'm guessing you voted for 50% falls.

But given your understanding of the situation, should you not have voted for an option further down the option list. OK, maybe I'm being pedantic, and maybe it's the wording of the poll, but I simply found it surprising that so many would vote for such an big assett deflation, without many voting for any particular fallout.

There again, I voted "Something worse", so maybe I'm the idiot.

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I don't disagree with any of the above, but I think you've missed my point. From the fact you've replied to my post, I'm guessing you voted for 50% falls.

But given your understanding of the situation, should you not have voted for an option further down the option list. OK, maybe I'm being pedantic, and maybe it's the wording of the poll, but I simply found it surprising that so many would vote for such an big assett deflation, without many voting for any particular fallout.

There again, I voted "Something worse", so maybe I'm the idiot.

I voted for a couple of banks to go pop, so just slightly worse option than the 50% fall :-)

I think the pop will come before the fall.

Isn't it funny how the EU is going after all the tax havens now? Didn't seem bothered about this until very recently, It's like the continent is trying to discover the contents of Ken Dodd's mattress on a grand scale, or maybe those student times when you're trying to get the last splash of tomato ketchup onto your bread, as that's all you've got left to eat.

I might be reading too much into these signs, but it does look as if there's loads of panicking of trying to get cash back into banks. It looks as if they don't actually know where they've put all theirs.

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There again, I voted "Something worse", so maybe I'm the idiot.

I voted for a couple of big banks going, because I think it might be a few years yet before 'something worse' comes a long and wanted to keep the timescale within reason ;)

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Timm, it's hardly surprising a gentlemens thoughts turn to a a large bust at this time of the evening.

I may come back to that.

Furthermore and may I add, I find it objectionable being smeared as an idiot by a poster who not only manages to juxtapose two comically contradictory bullet points but also manages to mock uber bears for naivity whilst claiming to be a resident of Apocalypse! :lol:

I read this a couple of times, and I think you mean that I shouldn't deny the possibility of 50% falls whilst representing myself as Famine, the black horse of the apocalypse.

The thing is, I don't discount the possibility of 50% falls, it's just that I think we will go through some times of tribulation before we get there. I was simply surprised by how many people had voted for 50% falls, compared to the percentage that saw any detrimental effects. I saw the options to be ordered by severity, and therefore "turmoil" included 50% falls. Of course, not everyone might have seen it that way.

My point is, we should accept that the road to affordable homes is going to be rough.

Really rough.

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I think the pop will come before the fall.

I'm with you on that, well, maybe a bit of a fall, then a pop, then a drop.

I might be reading too much into these signs, but it does look as if there's loads of panicking of trying to get cash back into banks. It looks as if they don't actually know where they've put all theirs.

Oh, you're not reading too much into it, you're spot on. They are desperate for cash. That is one of the few things folks round here agree on.

But I think they know where they put it. I'm sure the city boys are used to making out they don't know what happened to the money they spent on charlie and tail. And more exactly, the money they lost at poker. They put the money on the table and gambled. (Its gone. They lost it.)

They just haven't admitted it yet.

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Guest barebear

I haven't voted because it wont matter !!

Have you noticed how many survival programs there are on TV ? On sunday there will be a documentary about the end of the human race. There getting us ready for armagedon.

The Extreme Green Party (EGP) are behind this,their one policy which solves all the problems in the world is the erradication of mankind !!

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My bet is the Clintons make it to the whitehouse or we get another false flag attack.

No way will the major crime cindicates in the USA allow an outsider to gain power and a mini nuke going off or something like that will allow Bush to declaire marshall law and stay in power.

Too much of what is happening looks like Germany in the late 1930's

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I voted "something worse", since the bubble has been several orders of magnitude larger than the 20s bubble (I count early 80s to today), the crash will be an order of magnitude larger than the great depression. If you think thats retarded fine! Shit happens, see you on the downside.

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I voted "something worse", since the bubble has been several orders of magnitude larger than the 20s bubble (I count early 80s to today), the crash will be an order of magnitude larger than the great depression. If you think thats retarded fine! Shit happens, see you on the downside.

I think if you work in finance it's going to be really, really bad. If you have assets, you're going to have to be on your toes for the next few years to not be wiped out. In monetary terms, yes worse than the Great Depression.

For most of us, the world is very different to the 1920s. It still took weeks to get information across the world, nevermind food/products. The supply chain can react at lightspeed and I think that will buffer the harmful effects to a large degree.

We will get a financial depression and we'll be poorer, but I stop far short of predicting mass hunger in the west or other such apocolyptic nonesense. There may be some energy supply problems and we will have to make do with less. Probably some strikes and a bit of civil disorder, but nothing serious.

My true hope is that we manage to shed the religious fever for economic growth for all countries and see some benefits to slowing down. I'd like to see shorter working weeks, something I think we could easily afford to do and which would benefit society. I live in hope anyway :)

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Guest Skint Academic
But given your understanding of the situation, should you not have voted for an option further down the option list. OK, maybe I'm being pedantic, and maybe it's the wording of the poll, but I simply found it surprising that so many would vote for such an big assett deflation, without many voting for any particular fallout.

I voted for 50% but I also expect some major things to go wrong as well. Trouble is the poll only allows for one option, as polls are wont to do. I don't know exactly what will go wrong and how the government will try to fudge it up even more save it. Two major banks going bust? I expect so, but it might be just one or it might be loads of small ones. But out of all the options, the most likely to happen will be 50% fall in my opinion so that's what i chose. That's why I posted that it was my conservative option.

Now be quiet, pull up a chair and enjoy the show :)

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Can anyone tell me what the UK has to offer the rest of the world that will generate enough to support 60m people?

The Middle East has oil.

Australia & Canada have commodities.

Asia has factories and cheap labour.

When the city and property go pop it's all over.

No prizes for guessing that I voted "Doom I tell ya".

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Can anyone tell me what the UK has to offer the rest of the world that will generate enough to support 60m people?

Nothing wrong with a knowledge economy. All very well having oil, commodities and cheap labour but finding ways to use oil and commodities more efficiently and to automate cheap labour tasks is a perfectly viable alternative.

Not that we're particularly good at that either, but we could be if we made a much more concerted effort to produce world class science, maths & engineering graduates rather than pissing education funds up the wall as we are at the moment.

We are pretty good at spending money though, or at providing an environment for people to spend money. And we're pretty good at encouraging the rest of the world to funnel their money through here and we can skim a little bit off the top every time. Which kind of makes us a nation of bottom feeders, but so long as we keep a competitive advantage in bottom feeding we'll do well. Of course the non dom tax is going to ****** all that.

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  • 294 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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