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The Masked Tulip

Dow Did Not Seem To Panic Much Today

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Just down 7 points - doesn't it close 9PM UK time?

I would have thought that the news that Buffett has pulled the plug on his monoline bailout would have caused a bloodbath in NY. Its looks like I've got the wrong end of the stick somehow.

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Just down 7 points - doesn't it close 9PM UK time?

I have a nasty feeling im my bones that doesnt let me down often; I think the losses are being saved up for a REAL rainy day... I wonder how much control the market makers are having at the mo, any idea what volumes are being traded currently versus historical data?

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I have a nasty feeling im my bones that doesnt let me down often; I think the losses are being saved up for a REAL rainy day... I wonder how much control the market makers are having at the mo, any idea what volumes are being traded currently versus historical data?

I think Wall Street can hear the helicopters much more loudly than we can in the UK. Plus one way to inject cash into the economy would be through those plongeurs protectionistes.

The dodgy dossiers in Washington and London must have "inflationary rescue plan" written pretty clearly on the front at the moment.

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I think Wall Street can hear the helicopters much more loudly than we can in the UK. Plus one way to inject cash into the economy would be through those plongeurs protectionistes.

The dodgy dossiers in Washington and London must have "inflationary rescue plan" written pretty clearly on the front at the moment.

Darn, I was hoping the rescue plan would involve the Stargate and gorgeous women wearing tightly fitting lycra :blink:

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I think Wall Street can hear the helicopters much more loudly than we can in the UK. Plus one way to inject cash into the economy would be through those plongeurs protectionistes.

The dodgy dossiers in Washington and London must have "inflationary rescue plan" written pretty clearly on the front at the moment.

Dont bet on it, once the dow and S&P collapses, the Ftse will follow. the only thing keeping equity markets afloat is a couple of big losses, they will come with time ( I reckon about half way into the quarter when companies get a clue of the extent of their losses).. I dont gamble, but am seriously considering a couple of spreadbets shorting the FTSE/Dow/Nasdaq over the next three months. I seriously think we will be south of 5000 by then... The Equity markets can oly put their fingers in their ears and go Naa NAa Naa for so long...

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

When all the maggots are found in those sub prime defaults and cleaned out the markets will be off again and as Gold begins to fall I hope those invested will know the right time when to sell and don`t miss the boat.

Cue HSBC :blink:

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I would have thought that the news that Buffett has pulled the plug on his monoline bailout would have caused a bloodbath in NY. Its looks like I've got the wrong end of the stick somehow.

Buffet was playing it cool, he was offering the most terrible offer possible, he wanted to see just how desperate these people were, offering to take the best bits for the least price - he may come back and revise his offer or wait until they are more desperate.

I think the markets knew it was never a serious offer.

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Just down 7 points - doesn't it close 9PM UK time?

Read what I wrote on another thread

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...st&p=997262

The DOW has not been allowed to panic since the credit crunch started. This has achieved a gradual lowering of the DOW and stability on the World markets.

The only time panic set in was March last year when it fell 200 points in 10 mins since then they have done all they can to prevent panic. Quite an incredible job when you have well respected economists predicting a depression!

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A few weeks ago when Buffet announced he would help these insurers the Dow loved it and from memory went up 200/300 points , now he's pulling out the Dow stays flat , it really is all bolleaux.....lets's just make it up as we go along :rolleyes:

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Read what I wrote on another thread

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...st&p=997262

The DOW has not been allowed to panic since the credit crunch started. This has achieved a gradual lowering of the DOW and stability on the World markets.

The only time panic set in was March last year when it fell 200 points in 10 mins since then they have done all they can to prevent panic. Quite an incredible job when you have well respected economists predicting a depression!

Can these market interventions be kept up indefinitely, do you think? Surely, if they are transparent enough for you to predict them, they just present an opportunity for speculators, don't they?

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It's way too early to call this yet. The DOW is already factoring in another 50 point cut this month and look where it is, perched precariously above the key 12000 level. It won't take much for this to fall and then you'll all get your bloodbath, but trying to call the exact day this will happen is a pretty pointless exercise.

Also pointless IMOP, is trying to trade these indices, they are massively warped and manipulated, not only by central bank intervention, but also because of the extreme nature of the economic situation, this makes any kind of fundamental approach to investing irrelevant. At the moment they are little better than putting money on a roulette table.

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The Dow is now Manipulation expressed as an art form.

Yes, it closes at 9pm.

After a big drop day like friday, it usually manages to closes +ve the next day.

There was further bad news yesterday as manufacturing figures showed that spending was slowing and prices were rising - double whammy.

Ben's magic is not working.

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Also pointless IMOP, is trying to trade these indices, they are massively warped and manipulated, not only by central bank intervention, but also because of the extreme nature of the economic situation, this makes any kind of fundamental approach to investing irrelevant. At the moment they are little better than putting money on a roulette table.

Exactly, this is why I have not called a black day yet and wont until this pattern is broken and they loose control.

I have watched it long enough to know the level of control they have on it and the pattern described in my other posts is exactly what has happened on many occasions. Initially when I looked into it I thought it was just to the degree that they stepped in when the market takes a sudden and potential damaging plunge. Now having watched in detail for 6 month I have seen it to a far greater extent than that. This is not just a central bank/government intervention you need all the major investment banks in on it as well to have the level of control they have.

The fact that they feel the need for this coordinated effort either reinforces the bearish sentiment atm or it could be just a political one so they don’t have a crash before they have an election.

Either way the best place to watch this one is form the sidelines.

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Manipulated or not (both by IR cuts and PPT), it has a very clear head and shoulders with strong support at and just above 12000 on both shoulders and resistance under around 12750 and 13000.

You can see from the weekly MACD it is still a "sell" at the moment. What the FED are no doubt hoping is that they can keep it above the 12000 support area. They have taken some sort of action (75bps cut in Jan for instance) when it dips beneath that.

DJIA040308.png

post-9973-1204625458_thumb.png

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Manipulated or not (both by IR cuts and PPT), it has a very clear head and shoulders with strong support at and just above 12000 on both shoulders and resistance under around 12750 and 13000.

You can see from the weekly MACD it is still a "sell" at the moment. What the FED are no doubt hoping is that they can keep it above the 12000 support area. They have taken some sort of action (75bps cut in Jan for instance) when it dips beneath that.

DJIA040308.png

.

I agree, they are trying to create a false bottom around 12000, this is where a few weeks ago there activity was been particularly prevalent when it was seriously testing it on several occasions. They know if this is breached the next down leg will take us to the 11,000 region, but they may allow this and then stay there for a similar period of time as we have been at 12,000. This would still be preventing the out and out crash they can not afford to have given the perilous state the rest of the financial markets are in. There is a lot at stake here which is why I believe they have had to take the actions they have, and personally believe are necessary (although ultimately futile).

IR, warren buffet rumours, futures manipulation and rescue plans are all part of the tool box and because these are all bought into by the markets main participants this is why it has to have their involvement, independent thinking would not result in the reactions so far achieve at critical points.

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Trader column in FT last week suggested that if Dow broke 11483 or 11172 a deep correction is on. Also said to short at about 12561 with a stop loss at 12768.

According to the Cass BS 80% of spread bets fail............. ;)

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The FTSE seems to be up and down this morning as if it does not know which way to go.

It's waiting for it's big brother Dow Jones to wake up at 2.30 to give it guidance :rolleyes: YAWNNNNN

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Trader column in FT last week suggested that if Dow broke 11483 or 11172 a deep correction is on. Also said to short at about 12561 with a stop loss at 12768.

According to the Cass BS 80% of spread bets fail............. ;)

11483 looks like it was the 200day MA at the time of writing. 11497 as of last night (on chart above). January low is also an obvious support point. I wouldn't have thought it was anywhere near a "buy" until at the very least the weekly MACD indicator has crossed over and also put in a "higher" low which is nowhere in sight yet.

It's going to be interesting with 2 weeks to go to the next cut. I believe the odds have shortened on a 75bps rather than 50bps cut now as well.

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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