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eric pebble

First Time Buyers: Whatever You You Do....

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The market is turning, the ship is stalling, and not all potential FTB's [First Time Buyers] out there really do understand the situation right now. Because if they buy into this crazy market now, they will be signing their lives away - literally comitting hari kari.

ALL FTB's out there -- HANG ON IN OUT THERE!!!!! Whatever, whatever, WHATEVER you do, do NOT buy now. After all the total bull***t of the last 5-6+ years - you have now JUST turned the tables. The boot is on the other foot, the sellers are begining to feel what you have felt like for years now; scared.

Suddenly, those smug sellers, speculators, BTL's, mortgage fraudsters etc etc. are smug no more - why? Because all you FTB's out there realised

(1) "value for money" ain't there AT ALL; we all know this clearly.

(2) That all you had to do as a collective group of people - i.e. - FTB's - was to stick 2 fingers up to the whole crazy, hyped up pile of horse***t that the housing market has become - and simply say "NO! We will NOT pay that stupid, insane price!". And by simply doing that, the entire market would eventually stop DEAD in its tracks. You have achieved what was always actually possible; you have stopped the whole PR organised, vested interest-led Mass Pyramid-Selling Scam - with all the rigged tv programmes, newspaper articles, media infestations of LIES, sophistry and rip-off scams galore.

Now, whatever you do, do not blinkl first! That is EXACTLY what they are dying for you to do. Do not let the bulls***ters out there con you into the market with all there "buy now or else" cr*p. JUST WAIT; very very patiently.

And this is the KEY, all you FTB's out there; You HAVE THE POWER: You are the tap from which the water flows out into the market: If you stay out [i.e. off], the flow stops. The water dries up.

THE SO-CALLED "HOUSING MARKET" HAS BEEN HYPED UP FOR YEARS AND YEARS BY MORTGAGE FRAUD & LIAR LOANS..... [sEE BELOW]

Let the prices come down 30%; then 40%; and then 50%; and then 60%. And only then, only then, start to consider making offers. Teach them all a really sobering leson; teach them all the taste of their own medicine; prices can go up 300%, yes..... but they CAN ALSO GO DOWN 60% TOO!!!! Teach them!! Play it really, really cool. Good luck.

Edited by eric pebble

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Remember Woodrow Wyatt? The NoTW's 'Voice of Reason?'.

I give you HPC's own Eric P - The Voice of Reason!!!

Quite right.....I had a moment of clarity a few weeks back when looking at places I wouldn't consider living in that were priced over 200k - nearly a quarter of a million pounds for some plasterboard walls and a cheap en-suite bathroom. I think not, my friend. Sanity reigns.

Edited by Mancghirl

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Eric, sincerely - thank you so much for this.

After watching tonights One Show on BBC 1, I thought it's us, a small band of merry men (& the odd Maid Marion..) against the Sheriff Of Fife & his VI Hordes. What chance do we have, this lone band of asset poor (but cash rich ;) ) outsiders?

The answer is that we, the lean, light, manouverable rapiers of the market, have the bloated, spent, wheezing, gluttonous ranks cornered - sweating, snivelling, shaking at the end of a shining lance, the sun creeping out from behind the grey clouds & illuminating the keenness of it's edge. Ready to pr1ck their beloved, precious bubble (& their egos) into a million droplets - each one for the tears they will shed when that, is all they will have left. :rolleyes:

(Sorry, time for a cup of tea..)

EDIT: Swearing filter took out pr1ck :lol:

Edited by garybug

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Some will disagree, such as our old friends on Singingpig:

PS In response to earlier posts there is never a good time to invest in property or any investment market for that fact. There will always be sceptics that predict the worst and there will also be people to say otherwise! Unless you have a crystal ball theres no real way of knowing. One thing is for certain, to a certain degree once your on the ladder theres no looking back! If you look at property in the long term 3-5 years plus the market will rise, increasing your equity. In the short term, 2008 is the year to buy, the market will level off and dip slightly and then continue to rise. If the market does plateau or dip slightly thats the time to buy... as rents will rise as also! In 10 years time a house thats valued at £100k today will 3 times that amount! Look at prices 10 years ago! Get on the ladder as soon as the opportunity arises!

http://www.singingpig.co.uk/forums/3/413236/ShowThread.aspx

The poster is a specialist in "low or no money down deals". Does that make him a VI?

Edited by Ah-so

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Some will disagree, such as our old friends on Singingpig:

http://www.singingpig.co.uk/forums/3/413236/ShowThread.aspx

The poster is a specialist in "low or no money down deals". Does that make him a VI?

What a joke.

He says "Unless you have a crystal ball theres no real way of knowing.".

Then in the next sentence says what's going to happen.

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The market is turning, the ship is stalling, and not all potential FTB's [First Time Buyers] out there really do understand the situation right now. Because if they buy into this crazy market now, they will be signing their lives away - literally comitting hari kari.

Thanks Eric. I have also posted an antidote to VI joke dolts on this thread.

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Guest Skint Academic

Mr Academic came up with a good'un the other day. It occurred to him that the FTB'ers are now priced out and waiting for the market to turn and will start buying at the prices that they expect the market to return to. After all, they aren't going to buy all the time the market is still falling. The sellers on the other hand don't yet know this and are still waiting for the buyers to accept their prices. So in effect the market has already crashed, the sellers just have to find out the prices to return to in order to get the market working again.

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Mr Academic came up with a good'un the other day. It occurred to him that the FTB'ers are now priced out and waiting for the market to turn and will start buying at the prices that they expect the market to return to. After all, they aren't going to buy all the time the market is still falling. The sellers on the other hand don't yet know this and are still waiting for the buyers to accept their prices. So in effect the market has already crashed, the sellers just have to find out the prices to return to in order to get the market working again.

I think that neatly sums up the whole credit issue, not just FTBs and houses...

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Mr Academic came up with a good'un the other day. It occurred to him that the FTB'ers are now priced out and waiting for the market to turn and will start buying at the prices that they expect the market to return to. After all, they aren't going to buy all the time the market is still falling. The sellers on the other hand don't yet know this and are still waiting for the buyers to accept their prices. So in effect the market has already crashed, the sellers just have to find out the prices to return to in order to get the market working again.

I agree the market has already crashed, and sellers are not going to face the terrible terrible reality, but FTB`s and any buyers without the cash to buy are waiting for the banks to tell them how much they will be spending, it`s not their decision, they will start buying when allowed to. Any seller with a functioning brain must have picked up that mortgage credit is being tightened and that the majority of buyers will no longer be funded for silly prices? So they must know where things will end up? The question is are we going back to the traditional multiples or what? And how long will it take for the nation to just accept that it is over, the way an aggressive drunk realises it is over when two or three burly police throw him in the back of a van. They can stamp and shout all they want, but they are going down!

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The market is turning, the ship is stalling, and not all potential FTB's [First Time Buyers] out there really do understand the situation right now. Because if they buy into this crazy market now, they will be signing their lives away - literally comitting hari kari.

ALL FTB's out there -- HANG ON IN OUT THERE!!!!! Whatever, whatever, WHATEVER you do, do NOT buy now. After all the total bull***t of the last 5-6+ years - you have now JUST turned the tables. The boot is on the other foot, the sellers are begining to feel what you have felt like for years now; scared.

Suddenly, those smug sellers, speculators, BTL's, mortgage fraudsters etc etc. are smug no more - why? Because all you FTB's out there realised

(1) "value for money" ain't there AT ALL; we all know this clearly.

(2) That all you had to do as a collective group of people - i.e. - FTB's - was to stick 2 fingers up to the whole crazy, hyped up pile of horse***t that the housing market has become - and simply say "NO! We will NOT pay that stupid, insane price!". And by simply doing that, the entire market would eventually stop DEAD in its tracks. You have achieved what was always actually possible; you have stopped the whole PR organised, vested interest-led Mass Pyramid-Selling Scam - with all the rigged tv programmes, newspaper articles, media infestations of LIES, sophistry and rip-off scams galore.

Now, whatever you do, do not blinkl first! That is EXACTLY what they are dying for you to do. Do not let the bulls***ters out there con you into the market with all there "buy now or else" cr*p. JUST WAIT; very very patiently.

And this is the KEY, all you FTB's out there; You HAVE THE POWER: You are the tap from which the water flows out into the market: If you stay out [i.e. off], the flow stops. The water dries up.

THE SO-CALLED "HOUSING MARKET" HAS BEEN HYPED UP FOR YEARS AND YEARS BY MORTGAGE FRAUD & LIAR LOANS..... [sEE BELOW]

Let the prices come down 30%; then 40%; and then 50%; and then 60%. And only then, only then, start to consider making offers. Teach them all a really sobering leson; teach them all the taste of their own medicine; prices can go up 300%, yes..... but they CAN ALSO GO DOWN 60% TOO!!!! Teach them!! Play it really, really cool. Good luck.

FTB`s don`t choose what to do, the banks choose for them, if the multiples are still available the party will continue, if not house prices are going back in time ten years. The sheeple don`t make a stand they just compete against other sheeple to be the most like a "celebrity".

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I suspect that we are now going through a phase whereby potential first-time buyers are unable to get the finance to enable them to buy a property and are feeling very hard done by.

The next phase is where potential first-time buyers actually feel relieved that they have been prevented from jumping onto a sinking ship!

When sentiment turns this corner and vendors appreciate the fact then the fun will really begin!

Edited by Mr Yogi

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
First Time Buyers: Whatever You You Do....

DO NOT EVEN THINK OF BUYING NOW.....

Eric old mate, I think you will find buyers of all groups are not buying now.

In my area sellers appear to have given up and EAs with 6 staff a year ago reduced to 2 staff today, and on top of that a mortgage broker advertising BTL mortgages and if you are dodgy I can still get you a mortgage, has shut up shop after 3 years. ;)

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I suspect that we are now going through a phase whereby potential first-time buyers are unable to get the finance to enable them to buy a property and are feeling very hard done by.

The next phase is where potential first-time buyers actually feel relieved that they have been prevented from jumping onto a sinking ship!

When sentiment turns this corner and vendors appreciate the fact then the fun will really begin!

Agreed, then the pressure really is on sellers. We may see some ugly scenes of panic.

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Mr Academic came up with a good'un the other day. It occurred to him that the FTB'ers are now priced out and waiting for the market to turn and will start buying at the prices that they expect the market to return to. After all, they aren't going to buy all the time the market is still falling. The sellers on the other hand don't yet know this and are still waiting for the buyers to accept their prices. So in effect the market has already crashed, the sellers just have to find out the prices to return to in order to get the market working again.

And that's where the EAs come in. Without sale volumes, they're buggered. They'll have to encourage vendors to lower prices and suck up to buyers like crazy. Funny how things change... <_<

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I agree the market has already crashed, and sellers are not going to face the terrible terrible reality, but FTB`s and any buyers without the cash to buy are waiting for the banks to tell them how much they will be spending, it`s not their decision, they will start buying when allowed to. Any seller with a functioning brain must have picked up that mortgage credit is being tightened and that the majority of buyers will no longer be funded for silly prices? So they must know where things will end up? The question is are we going back to the traditional multiples or what? And how long will it take for the nation to just accept that it is over, the way an aggressive drunk realises it is over when two or three burly police throw him in the back of a van. They can stamp and shout all they want, but they are going down!

Some top of the head calculations.

Median Salary

24K - let's be generous in a partnership, so looking to settle down into a first home. 24K x 2 = 48K income, to be generous

2.5x joint income, if we're headed back to the future, so 120k

Banks putting the squeeze on, want at least 5% deposit, so that's 6K.

It's saveable in a year, but are we used to saving up money seriously. Even then it still only gets a 120k property. What's out there for 120k.

And that's for a partnership with no bad credit records.

More realistically I think the FTB purchase level is coming down to sub 100K, and that's for a reasonable place for partners on decent salaries, or a single on above average wages.

That's at least 30-50% off current prices, without anything too spectacular happening and just getting back to something which seems "reasonable".

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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