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sighmoon

Scotland

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The pundits on the home page of this website are generally predicting price rises for Scotland.

However, Allsops, (the auctioneers, not the Kirsties) issue a report, available on their home page (http://www.allsop.co.uk/), where they graph the number of distressed sales at auction in different regions. Unfortunately, they lump Scotland with the North of England, but the graph shows the number of reposessions rising more rapidly in North England and Scotland than anywhere else. So either:

1) Scotland is fine, and is helping to mask a really dire situation in Northern England.

2) The Scottish 'offers over' system gets the vendor more money than the English haggling system, so the mainstream prices are still going up, even as the number of distressed sales rises. This is likely to delay a Scottish crash, but perhaps make it worse when it does happen.

Any thoughts?

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1ST post, so go easy, seen price drops in both offer and selling prices in Dundee, kept an old property guide from end of last summer, recently checked the actual selling prices and in many cases this was below the o/o price advertised, also properties on at say o/o £200k, a few months later fixed at £215k, a few months later o/o 190k, still for sale, Dundee has lost hundreds of well paid jobs over last 6 months, with new jobs at say morrison and asda on min wage, also has lots of new exec. flats ( rabbit hutches ) with 10k cash back and other incentives, and will not be immune from credit tightning by banks, no reason to assume Dundee is different from rest of Scotland. Alan

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2) The Scottish 'offers over' system gets the vendor more money than the English haggling system, so the mainstream prices are still going up, even as the number of distressed sales rises. This is likely to delay a Scottish crash, but perhaps make it worse when it does happen.

Any thoughts?

Not convinced that the offers over system gets the vendor more more than they'd get in England - with a return to more fixed prices, and people being unwilling/unable to offer more than the valuation, I think we'll go back to something more 'normal'. When I bought 12 years ago I offered £250 more than the offers over, and ended up paying £500 more! Closing dates were not the norm, and I expect that situation to return. With the introduction of seller's packs the recent trend for making offers subject to survery will stop too so people will know what the property's been valued at before putting in an offer.

Buyers in Scotland and England use the same banks to obtain mortgages from, and it is the lack of credit which will ultimately push prices down. We won't be immune, and I'm certainly seeing prices come down.

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Guest Skint Academic

Mr Academic and I are carefully watching the prices in the highlands, even more now that there could be a chance that we might have a way of moving back there. So I installed Property Bee on the 21st February and have seen my first changes! Prices have been dropping in the most touristy of areas, Aberfoyle and Callander. OK there's only been two changes so far but you have to give it time, These properties are around the 400K+ mark and have dropped 30K in one go. Quite why they are so high and quite why Mr Academic was looking at them I don't know. But when we can get a remote croft for about 150 - 180 in the far north we're game,

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Am keeping an eye on a house in central Scotland (not to buy, just out of noseyness!) which has just been cut by 30k too. Interesting times, and there's no way Scotland will be immune.

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I suppose the key question to ask is "does Scotland have better access to cheap credit than England?".

If the answer is no, then they're going the same way.

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1ST post, so go easy, seen price drops in both offer and selling prices in Dundee, kept an old property guide from end of last summer, recently checked the actual selling prices and in many cases this was below the o/o price advertised, also properties on at say o/o £200k, a few months later fixed at £215k, a few months later o/o 190k, still for sale, Dundee has lost hundreds of well paid jobs over last 6 months, with new jobs at say morrison and asda on min wage, also has lots of new exec. flats ( rabbit hutches ) with 10k cash back and other incentives, and will not be immune from credit tightning by banks, no reason to assume Dundee is different from rest of Scotland. Alan

hello :) welcome to the forum.

lived in dundee a few years went to the uni there.dundee was one of the last places to rise in value, all the places being showing with massive rises in the last couple years are those that no-one realy wants to live in. ie montrose, dumfermline, dundee, lanarkshire.

these will be the first to drop

i like dundee though its got lots of good bars ect, the trouble is half of the city is a council housing scheme, hence why soon as any dundonians make a bit of cash they move over the bridge to newport,tayport or along to the ferry.

nice tenament flats in dundee could be had for 12-15k a few years ago

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Hi

a few months ago i was pondering the same question, and that is whether Scotland was immune from the crash?, an analogy can be used like say with the cold, if you are exposed to the same conditions as others who have that virus then you too will get that virus(unless you have an immunity!) Similar with house prices. Scotland i think, will be more exposed to the crash as; the wages up here are in my opinion a lot lower, there are higher amounts on welfare and a heck of a lot of jobs are service sector jobs, ones such as call centre occupations which will move onto say india when costs rise here.

The crash is already underway , i am looking in ayrshire and using property bee and i am seeing more going to fixed prices and also a number of reductions on some lovely houses which before July sold in a week!. (see Ayrshire thread)

au revoir mon HPI

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hello :) welcome to the forum.

lived in dundee a few years went to the uni there.dundee was one of the last places to rise in value, all the places being showing with massive rises in the last couple years are those that no-one realy wants to live in. ie montrose, dumfermline, dundee, lanarkshire.

these will be the first to drop

i like dundee though its got lots of good bars ect, the trouble is half of the city is a council housing scheme, hence why soon as any dundonians make a bit of cash they move over the bridge to newport,tayport or along to the ferry.

nice tenament flats in dundee could be had for 12-15k a few years ago

Hello, agreed , in brty ferry at moment, had a customer early 90s 1 bed flat provost rd, house on market for over 2 years and no sale, I asked if hed was maybe asking to much he replied he didn t think so, o/o 10500, Alan

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HPC Newbie

http://www.stewartmilne.com/home/news.cfm?...p;homenews=1257

This is what I like to see! Stewart Milne shoeboxes not moving!

"As if the opportunity to own a new apartment in one of Aberdeen's most prestigious new home developments wasn't attractive enough, prospective homebuyers at Kepplestone, have an added reason to consider the West End development. This month, Stewart Milne Homes is contributing £8000 towards stamp duty, or providing all the carpets and/or floor coverings." 21 Feb 08

Prices are being reduced on ASPC for Aberdeen and sales are falling through. Vendors are accepting at less than fixed price (previously unheard of).

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Scotland will get whacked same as everywhere else.

In the Highlands prices have been pumped by insane bids from Darn Saff money, do the average local wage to prices calculation for confirmation.

England slumps Scotland won't be far behind.

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HPC Newbie

http://www.stewartmilne.com/home/news.cfm?...p;homenews=1257

This is what I like to see! Stewart Milne shoeboxes not moving!

"As if the opportunity to own a new apartment in one of Aberdeen's most prestigious new home developments wasn't attractive enough, prospective homebuyers at Kepplestone, have an added reason to consider the West End development. This month, Stewart Milne Homes is contributing £8000 towards stamp duty, or providing all the carpets and/or floor coverings." 21 Feb 08

Prices are being reduced on ASPC for Aberdeen and sales are falling through. Vendors are accepting at less than fixed price (previously unheard of).

was only 6 months ago the press and journal was showing stories of people camping outside some new build to snap them up.I pass by inverurie most weeks and huntly, they have uild a load of new build flats along the main road, one has a sign up saying last 3 left.thing is ive never ever seen a car in the car parks of the flats.

some panic buying ehhh

aberdeen prices went totally insane, the coming crash will wipe out half the oil workers wealth.

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Mr Academic and I are carefully watching the prices in the highlands, even more now that there could be a chance that we might have a way of moving back there. So I installed Property Bee on the 21st February and have seen my first changes! Prices have been dropping in the most touristy of areas, Aberfoyle and Callander. OK there's only been two changes so far but you have to give it time, These properties are around the 400K+ mark and have dropped 30K in one go. Quite why they are so high and quite why Mr Academic was looking at them I don't know. But when we can get a remote croft for about 150 - 180 in the far north we're game,

Hey Skint any chance of posting some links to these types of property, I wouldn't mind tracking them either and I'm o/s at the moment.

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Scotland will crash and burn.

In contrast to popular Scottish opinion, the credit crunch and UK-HPC WON'T stop at Hadrian's Wall.

I'm not convinced that is in contrast to popular Scottish opinion - everyone I talk to says 'good' when I say house prices will fall. The only time I hear people talking about house prices is when they're saying how ridiculous they are and how unfair they are to young people.

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I'm not convinced that is in contrast to popular Scottish opinion - everyone I talk to says 'good' when I say house prices will fall. The only time I hear people talking about house prices is when they're saying how ridiculous they are and how unfair they are to young people.

up here in the islands practically every house put on the market is now sold to someone from england, its got so bad that there is now serious talk of not allowing this to continue.

the people that do come here are to a man as follows

50+

index linked pension

ex government worker

early retiree

sold house in england mostly southern

how can a new married local couple compete with that?, the truth is they cant so they now live in static caravans at the back of there parents homes.

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House prices in Scotland will continue to defy gravity.

Yearly increases of 10% are a minimum and, within 20 years, everyone in Scotland will be able to sell their houses and retire on the proceeds.

The fact that none of them will have anywhere to live is neither here nor there. The weather is endlessly bloody appalling and all Scots will move to Spain, to help rejuvenate their housing market.

Scoltand will, therefore, empty - apart from the Queen visiting Balmoral from time to time. The Queen will have to take servants from England with her as Scotland will be empty.

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House prices in Scotland will continue to defy gravity.

Yearly increases of 10% are a minimum and, within 20 years, everyone in Scotland will be able to sell their houses and retire on the proceeds.

The fact that none of them will have anywhere to live is neither here nor there. The weather is endlessly bloody appalling and all Scots will move to Spain, to help rejuvenate their housing market.

Scoltand will, therefore, empty - apart from the Queen visiting Balmoral from time to time. The Queen will have to take servants from England with her as Scotland will be empty.

prices have gone up 10x in 10 years in the highlands i kid you not

30k houses here are now 300k

they are selling ex council houses in plockton here for 350k , little terraced houses.the highlands has become the ultimate in getting away from the cities.

lots of locals have become very rich indeed

for them that didint have land to sell, they are utterly stuffed.The odd thing is, all they people that did come here to buy at least half of them realise they hate the lifestyle after a couple years and sell up to another southern englander so they can have a go.

from oct to april here hardly anyone leaves the house other than to go get groceries, this is no kidding.there is absolutely nothing to do here or no-where to go

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Tenement flats in the good bits of Glasgow and Edinburgh will go back to under £50,000. A "remote highland cottage" should be ten grand for f*cks sake, you could build your own out of old bits of s*ite lying around. The average punter in Scotland , or indeed in the UK is not earning enough to suspend reality any longer. If the banks won`t lend ,houses are going to have to drop quickly or the market is just going to stop (maybe not a bad thing). People have so much at stake if they have bought into the pipe dream that they just cannot accept that they will take losses, and it will be serious losses. They will have to take a hit at some point, but it going to be very painfull for a lot of folks.

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Guest Skint Academic
Hey Skint any chance of posting some links to these types of property, I wouldn't mind tracking them either and I'm o/s at the moment.

Sure. Just recently reduced by about 30K according to Mr Academic's Property Bee!

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-966...=4&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-195...=1&tr_t=buy

One advert we were looking at had a nice posh sports car on the drive of a small three bedroom 1 1/2 storey bungalow, all nicely done up on the inside and I suspect it was a second home.

I've decided that the best way to think of this bubble is to think in terms of probability. At the peak, the longer you wait before selling the more money your house is worth but the greater the chance of not being able to sell it. And if you put in silly offers, the greater the chances of an offer being accepted the longer it has been since the bubble burst. But it helps to know how much the bubble has inflated houses. 10X mentioned earlier in this thread is certainly an interesting figure.

Anyone know if in post-bubble highlands whether being a cash buyer with no chain would help with putting in a silly offer? After all, you don't have to worry about gazumping or gazundering in Scotland.

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Guest Skint Academic
from oct to april here hardly anyone leaves the house other than to go get groceries, this is no kidding.there is absolutely nothing to do here or no-where to go

Sounds fantastic to me. During my PhD I wouldn't leave the house for days at a time, except to get groceries (understandable, as it was Alva of all places!). It meant that I could just do my research in my own time and get as much sleep as I wanted. It was very productive! But then come summer I didn't have to worry about taking time off to make use of the nice weather when it came as I knew that I had worked so hard during the winter.

Edited by Skint Academic

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Sure. Just recently reduced by about 30K according to Mr Academic's Property Bee!

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-966...=4&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-195...=1&tr_t=buy

One advert we were looking at had a nice posh sports car on the drive of a small three bedroom 1 1/2 storey bungalow, all nicely done up on the inside and I suspect it was a second home.

I've decided that the best way to think of this bubble is to think in terms of probability. At the peak, the longer you wait before selling the more money your house is worth but the greater the chance of not being able to sell it. And if you put in silly offers, the greater the chances of an offer being accepted the longer it has been since the bubble burst. But it helps to know how much the bubble has inflated houses. 10X mentioned earlier in this thread is certainly an interesting figure.

Anyone know if in post-bubble highlands whether being a cash buyer with no chain would help with putting in a silly offer? After all, you don't have to worry about gazumping or gazundering in Scotland.

Why not just wait until the crash happens and the dust settles then you could be Laird of all The Highlands for next to nothing. There will be nobody up there except a bunch of depressed locals drinking themselves to death.

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  • 296 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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