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Sydney House Prices In Landslide, What Happened To All Our Sydney Rampers?

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HOMEOWNERS in Sydney's outer suburbs have been losing as much as $450 a week every week since early 2004 on the value of their properties as the real story of mortgage belt misery begins to emerge.

With the Reserve Bank likely to announce yet another interest rate hike tomorrow, a Daily Telegraph investigation reveals hundreds of streets in Sydney's outer suburbs now have houses that have been bought and sold at a loss - in rare cases more than 40 per cent in value.

Since the peak of the boom in early 2004, Sydney's southern suburbs has dipped the most in value, with the median price falling $82,750 over the ensuing 15 quarters, according to Australian Property Monitors figures.

Other areas where the Australian dream is souring include Canterbury Bankstown which has registered $65,000 in losses, Sydney's south west $44,500 and Sydney's west $25,000.

On a per week basis, the changes in median prices to late last year equate to $444 a week losses for the south, $349 for the Canterbury-Bankstown area, $239 for the south west and $134 for west.

The decline in median price values are despite a mini-boom in real estate in the more affluent eastern half of the city.

But while these changes are based on median movements, a new report by MVS Valuers analysised hundreds of case studies of resold homes to offer more detail on how homeowners are hurting.

The MVS Valuers analysis shows that anyone who has bought as long ago as January 2002 and resold recently in Sydney's west and south west is likely to have copped a loss.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is today expected to unveil a plan to help families battling housing stress in a move designed to take the heat out of the latest Reserve Bank rate hike.

Last month, on the day before the central bank increased rates to an 11-year high of 7 per cent, Mr Rudd announced the government's $850 million first-home saver accounts scheme.

Mr Rudd's annoucement comes after new research shows 1.1 million low to middle income households are now spending more than 30 per cent of their income on housing.

To present an accurate picture, anomalies such as upgraded homes, sales within families and vacant blocks that have been built on were removed from the analysis.

Among some of the worst losses studied, a home in New Cambridge St, Fairfield West bought for $780,000 in November 2004 sold in July last year for $415,000, a loss of 46.8 per cent.

At Bond Place, Oxley Park, a unit bought for $455,000 in August 2005 sold last May for $250,000.

At McAndrew Close, Lurnea, a house bought for $420,000 in December, 2004 sold last June for $267,000.

http://www.news.com.au/business/money/stor...9-14327,00.html

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable

Ah, interesting.

Edited by DissipatedYouthIsValuable

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Well I never was a Sydney ramper eh...

Probably the least exposed houses to a bubble ie peaked 4 years ago and and still in -ve territrory

That one for 780 that went for 415 is mortgage fraud there were two on the street that done this and the street is a 415 street obviuosly.

Not forgetting that rental vacancy is at 25 years low .8% vacancy in Sydney rents rising faster than CPI.

Now go find the slump in Brisbane I know where it is.

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Well I never was a Sydney ramper eh...

Probably the least exposed houses to a bubble ie peaked 4 years ago and and still in -ve territrory

That one for 780 that went for 415 is mortgage fraud there were two on the street that done this and the street is a 415 street obviuosly.

Not forgetting that rental vacancy is at 25 years low .8% vacancy in Sydney rents rising faster than CPI.

Now go find the slump in Brisbane I know where it is.

We had guys on here 2-3 years back bizarrely 'defending' prices in Aus. TBH hadn't given it much thought until I saw this over the weekend, could be old news, apologies if it is. New to me, had no idea Aus. mortgage holders were paying on average 30% of income on payments etc... or that a price slump apparently stretched back to 2004. :blink:

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least affordable housing in the anglosphere, mortgage rates will hit double figures this year - it is going to go horribly bad down here when it hits. Better parts of Sydney not taken the hit that the west has yet and other capitals booming but fundamentals were left behind long ago.

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We had guys on here 2-3 years back bizarrely 'defending' prices in Aus. TBH hadn't given it much thought until I saw this over the weekend, could be old news, apologies if it is. New to me, had no idea Aus. mortgage holders were paying on average 30% of income on payments etc... or that a price slump apparently stretched back to 2004. :blink:

Sydney and most eastern states capitols peaked in 03 and the mortgage belt hs been struggling ever since also rising interest rates many mortgagee sales lthough they are being snapped up by investors. Upmarket Sydney has turned and is showing growth. ALso two speed economy with the oil and gas and mineral rich states of Queensland and Western Australia booming and the southern states not. Brisbane went silly last year came out of the slump much faster than anyone expected at 20% but 5-8% forecast for this year. Went to an auction on Oxford St on saturday 800m2 with good house with views in Bulimba (Bris) went for 1.2mill only two bidders late last year it would have fetched $1.4mill easy. Most playing it safe right now also bull run on equity market. Population is growing rapidly at the moment.

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The article has it about right.

I live in the North West and prices here have been mostly stable.

The pressure is certainly building though, everyone I speak to is hurting.

I expect things to deteriorate from here.

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Sydney and most eastern states capitols peaked in 03 and the mortgage belt hs been struggling ever since also rising interest rates many mortgagee sales lthough they are being snapped up by investors. Upmarket Sydney has turned and is showing growth. ALso two speed economy with the oil and gas and mineral rich states of Queensland and Western Australia booming and the southern states not. Brisbane went silly last year came out of the slump much faster than anyone expected at 20% but 5-8% forecast for this year. Went to an auction on Oxford St on saturday 800m2 with good house with views in Bulimba (Bris) went for 1.2mill only two bidders late last year it would have fetched $1.4mill easy. Most playing it safe right now also bull run on equity market. Population is growing rapidly at the moment.

this is what I am talking about.

btw - which equity market are you talking about?

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In the time I have spent in Australia, there seems to be two states of mind you can adopt:

1. Brave new world - Republic of Australia, forging ahead with its natural resources as the base, and its genetically entrepreneurial people fearless. Decoupled from the rest of the world and closest english speaking friends of the Asia boom markets.

2. Reluctant colony of the RoW. Much to their bitter chagrin, dependent ultimately on the bigger fish in the world economy - and about to take their turn, albeit the last to go on the snakes and ladder board of this particular global recession. This is when Aussies look and feel naive again.

I think the governement see this - hence IRs kept high - lots of ballast for the fall, and also an attempt to curb the bubbles happening in HP and commodities, though this seems to be working only at the usual vulnerabel man in the street level in the western suburbs at the mo.

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More tax breaks for investors that invest in cheap rental property just announced

Cant see 40% myself thats a very general statetment and has not happend historically to the median price unless maybe if you were talking luxury houses or say the high end of Perth, but if you beleive in history repeating itself then check out these charts they are good guide to what happend in the past

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...mp;#entry986643

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More tax breaks for investors that invest in cheap rental property just announced

Cant see 40% myself thats a very general statetment and has not happend historically to the median price unless maybe if you were talking luxury houses or say the high end of Perth, but if you beleive in history repeating itself then check out these charts they are good guide to what happend in the past

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...mp;#entry986643

Thanks for the charts.

If history does repeat then real house prices will will fall (charts 1& 2)

Affordability will rise (chart 3)

and yields will rise (chart 4)

A drop of about 40% will achieve all of these and complete the cycle.

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I believe the worst hit is West Sydney which has cheaper housing. This is where all the BTL speculators raced into as is cheaper housing . The problem the prices were affordable for the BTL and not the locals. When the BTL stopped buying well it was like who switched off the light. Thus prices are dropping to what locals can afford. Still a long way to go.

Bit like the dot.com bubble a self inflated market. I recall all Property Auction programs in the UK all appeared to be BTLs no-one under 40. Now when s*** hits the fan they want the FTBs to come in and save these greedy BTLs now . When the market was going up no-one gave a jacks ass now when its crashing its a different story.

:lol::lol::lol::lol:

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The vast tracks of new builds out west are clearly junk, and were always viewed as an acident waiting to happen.

With the change rates moving about, salaries are almost on par with the UK, at least in the coroporate I work in.

5 times my salary near our london office gets me a ex council 2 bed in slough.

5 times my salary near our sydney office gets me a detatched house in leafy neighborhood with good schools 10 minutes from a white sand beach.

No comparason.

People I work with my age in london rent or own flats. Same demographic in Sydney all own detatched or Semi D houses on the lower north shore.

It will probably go down a bit as it is expensive but it does not have the top heavy feel of the UK or Ireland.

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Just watched the Housing Minister on Lateline and the Head of the Housing Affordbility Group. They are saying a shortage of 150,000 houses by 2011 and that rental affordability is now the major concern and expected to get worse. Rental auctions are common and some paying 6 months in advance just to get a rental.

Definetly no plans to change the negative gearing tax laws :P

They are looking at building low income rentals with big tax breaks for investors

Tax breaks for ftb's to save for a deposit.

Cant see a 40% drop in the median price in this situation myself.

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g/f family is in melbourne and there are a lot of repos in the poorer parts. I cant remember what its called but it probably rhymes ;)

Interest rates are higher - from memory 7 increases recently.

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We had guys on here 2-3 years back bizarrely 'defending' prices in Aus.

I was one of them.

Remember arguing with the infamous TTRTR (what happened to him?)

Thing is he was a Sydneysider, so Australia ended at the Blue Mountains.

Thinking similar to Londoners I suppose.

Very much bearish at the moment though.

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Remember arguing with the infamous TTRTR (what happened to him?)

Thing is he was a Sydneysider, so Australia ended at the Blue Mountains.

Thinking similar to Londoners I suppose.

Very much bearish at the moment though.

:P:lol::P:rolleyes:

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Just watched the Housing Minister on Lateline and the Head of the Housing Affordbility Group. They are saying a shortage of 150,000 houses by 2011 and that rental affordability is now the major concern and expected to get worse. Rental auctions are common and some paying 6 months in advance just to get a rental.

Definetly no plans to change the negative gearing tax laws :P

They are looking at building low income rentals with big tax breaks for investors

Tax breaks for ftb's to save for a deposit.

Cant see a 40% drop in the median price in this situation myself.

Agree, partly.

Rental affordability must be hurting. Vacancies are crazy-low. Presumably rental inflation is included in the statistics. There could be quite a bit on the way. Although it will of course affect discretionary spend which could impact retail etc.

Interesting that they are looking at building "low income rentals with big tax breaks for investors". Doesn't seem the most sensible solution (shoddy houses, renting class). Probably popular though.

Negative gearing only works on second property, right? So it will have to go eventually if HPI outstrips earnings (no one outside of land-owning hereditary "gentry" will be able to afford a primary one). That's a LONG way off though, and unlikely, hopefully.

The tax breaks for FTBs seems to be based along the lines of an alternative super, as far as I'm aware. I guess this is basically the masses (taxpayers) supporting those that can't afford to get on the "ladder". Not the worst idea i've heard I guess. Anything to keep the prices high I suppose (?!).

I do think that (nominal?) 40% drops are wild though, as they are in the UK (assuming we don't enter depression).

p.s. do you think that there's any chance they won't hike IRs tomorrow? Or have their minutes read something more negative for future raises?

Can't help shake off the feeling that the hikes will end sooner than anticipated, but maybe that's because I'm still in Europe.

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Can't help shake off the feeling that the hikes will end sooner than anticipated, but maybe that's because I'm still in Europe.

Are you kidding? USD futures are crazy-low, and falling. The world's going to mis-read this a while longer - speed up the rate at which they turn dirt into dollars - 'cause prices seem crazy-high and climbing.

They'll suck 'em in sumo-style so they can wear smaller and smaller budgie smugglers - 'till they pass out trying. Record low unemployment don'cha know, booming economy. Whaddya mean mate, there's no more boom and bust, it's a super cycle - borrow big spend big and dig dig dig.

(oh, and so sorry if you're trying to salt something away - you're already greasing this wheel)

Edited by ParticleMan

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Agree, partly.

Rental affordability must be hurting. Vacancies are crazy-low. Presumably rental inflation is included in the statistics. There could be quite a bit on the way. Although it will of course affect discretionary spend which could impact retail etc.

Interesting that they are looking at building "low income rentals with big tax breaks for investors". Doesn't seem the most sensible solution (shoddy houses, renting class). Probably popular though.

Its a new concept hasn't started yet they are consulting with institutional investors to get it to fly about 15000 planned for this term, cant build to many as it will drive up inflation.

Negative gearing only works on second property, right? So it will have to go eventually if HPI outstrips earnings (no one outside of land-owning hereditary "gentry" will be able to afford a primary one). That's a LONG way off though, and unlikely, hopefully.

Yes it only applies to investment property and it has been criticised as being advantageous to the wealthy. Ex PM Keating Labour abolished it in 85 and it was a disaster drove rents up overnight and immediate backflip followed.

The tax breaks for FTBs seems to be based along the lines of an alternative super, as far as I'm aware. I guess this is basically the masses (taxpayers) supporting those that can't afford to get on the "ladder". Not the worst idea i've heard I guess. Anything to keep the prices high I suppose (?!).

The idea is to give them an incentive to save for a deposit and get into the market take pressure of rentals good thing overall.

I do think that (nominal?) 40% drops are wild though, as they are in the UK (assuming we don't enter depression).

Me to but 40% drop is pure honey to a bear although they will never taste it they salivate like pablovs dog at the mention of it.

p.s. do you think that there's any chance they won't hike IRs tomorrow?

always a chance

Or have their minutes read something more negative for future raises?

yes and headline news on affordability today the day before to soften the blow

Can't help shake off the feeling that the hikes will end sooner than anticipated, but maybe that's because I'm still in Europe.

There is a concern that they go to far especially in the slower southern states.

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  • 292 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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