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lufc

Further Analysis Of Boe Feb 2008 Stats

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http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/...8/Feb/index.htm

Been having a look at the SA numbers in table A5.4 .... interesting stuff.

Assuming that the mix of sales (flats, 2,3,4 bed houses etc etc) is fairly constant throughout these are the average loan values for the last two years:

LPM Purchase Remort Other

2006 Jan 127 110 28

Feb 131 111 27

Mar 132 112 28

Apr 139 116 28

May 136 116 28

Jun 135 115 29

Jul 138 116 29

Aug 135 116 30

Sep 133 119 29

Oct 135 119 29

Nov 139 120 30

Dec 132 120 30

2007 Jan 139 121 29

Feb 143 125 31

Mar 146 123 30

Apr 148 118 31

May 149 125 31

Jun 149 125 31

Jul 146 125 31

Aug 145 124 32

Sep 144 128 31

Oct 140 127 31

Nov 137 125 32

Dec 138 130 33

2008 Jan 139 132 32

Admitedly they jump about a bit but average purchase price although up from Nov is 7% down from its high in May/June 2007 and only 9% up from Jan 2006.

The thing that blew my mind though was remortgaging, on average now 20% greater in value than Jan 2006 and accounting for 52% of all lending as opposed to 37% in Jan 2006.

Feel free to pull this apart.

Edited by lufc

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Not being critical here.. but is it not easier to take a screen shot of the excel data so we can see it in tab form. And a graph IF POSSIBLE?

The way its displayed, loses my interest immediately.. Not your fault, its the way the software shows you on screen. Looks great when you are coping it in though doesnt it??? :(

TB

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Lots of equity withdrawl then. I think I can copy what lufc did into a graph. It also shows some people are taking very big remortgages distorting the averages.

This is just the raw data stacked as % of total

BOE5.4.gif

This is loan amounts divided by number of loans for average house price, rounded off.

BOEAverages2.gif

Edited by maxwell

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im afraidyou're wrong about remortgaging equals mortgage equity withdrawal

people are remortgaging cos they were on fixes 2 years ago which now expire

the real remortgaging is 'other loans' secured on dwellings worth about 20k a pop

these have been flat, unlike in 04/05 when they crashed, implying consumer spending might not fall as much as feared and... hopefully... the boe will be slow to cut rates

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im afraidyou're wrong about remortgaging equals mortgage equity withdrawal

people are remortgaging cos they were on fixes 2 years ago which now expire

the real remortgaging is 'other loans' secured on dwellings worth about 20k a pop

these have been flat, unlike in 04/05 when they crashed, implying consumer spending might not fall as much as feared and... hopefully... the boe will be slow to cut rates

I don't see how there was one point in January 2006 when everyone took out a mortgage, 2007 should have a big reset from 2005 then.

These are the figures from the COML http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/filegrab/1ML1.xls?ref=4623

£ Million lending

comlfigures.gif

3. Before Q2 1992 figures on loans for house purchase are for all building societies only.

4. Includes lifetime mortgages, further advances, buy to let and other loans not reported elsewhere in the table.

Before Q2 1992, remortgages are not separately identifiable and are included in this category.

LIfetime mortgages are the "unlock the cash in your home today!" ones. Further advance is 2nd mortgage like HEW/MEW

Edited by maxwell

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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