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Guest vicmac64

Irish Banks - Take Heed The Warning Signals Are There!

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Guest vicmac64

Little has been said about Irish Banks, however we all know that things have been anything but sane in Ireland South and North concerning mortgage and cc lending.

I think the following report should give cause for very serious concern - would be interested in hearing your opinions on this....

Coincidentally BOI interest rates are high right now..... So are A&Ls....

http://www.thebusiness.co.uk/news-and-********...f-ireland.thtml

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Little has been said about Irish Banks, however we all know that things have been anything but sane in Ireland South and North concerning mortgage and cc lending.

I think the following report should give cause for very serious concern - would be interested in hearing your opinions on this....

Coincidentally BOI interest rates are high right now..... So are A&Ls....

http://www.thebusiness.co.uk/news-and-****...f-ireland.thtml

Interesting link vicmac

"But investors are entitled to be circumspect about the bank's chances of achieving that growth. Around 46% of BoI's loan portfolio is in U.K. and Irish mortgages, and another 24% in U.K. and Irish commercial property. That 70% mortgage exposure contrasts with domestic rival Allied Irish Banks' U.K. and Ireland loan exposure of 51%."

Taking into account this 'contrast' there seems to have been little effect of this difference with regard to the share price?

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&...=l&c=ALBK.L

Maybe this contrast will be more evident in the respective share prices later this year? as more detail on holdings comes to light.

but then again, the above graph compares a euro stock and a sterling stock and we must take into consideration an approximate 12% swing over the last year in favour of the euro

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Guest vicmac64
Amazing! 80% of loans property related - what an indictment of a society obsessed with selling property to themselves

Vespasian - this whole slowdown comes from the Credit Crunch - the banks are not in a position to carry on as before - and as such we now have the unhinging of the fundamentals of a broken and in many ways corupt financial system.

The numbers do not add up - and most surely we will now reap the whirlwind of fear, repossessions, banruptcies and possible very possible failures of financial institutions.

At the end of this I dread to think what will await us - though you can be assured it will have nothing to do with freedom referendum on or democracy. Indeed I believe we have lost this already - example the refusal to give us a referendum on further European integration speaks volumes of the knavish leaders we now have.

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Vespasian - this whole slowdown comes from the Credit Crunch - the banks are not in a position to carry on as before - and as such we now have the unhinging of the fundamentals of a broken and in many ways corupt financial system.

The numbers do not add up - and most surely we will now reap the whirlwind of fear, repossessions, banruptcies and possible very possible failures of financial institutions.

At the end of this I dread to think what will await us - though you can be assured it will have nothing to do with freedom referendum on or democracy. Indeed I believe we have lost this already - example the refusal to give us a referendum on further European integration speaks volumes of the knavish leaders we now have.

Slightly off topic, but when I listen to news reports about tight credit i sometimes wounder how much of a crunch there is or is it an excuse for banks to make even more proffit. For example HSBC reported it lost £8.7bn. However It made £12.8bn pre tax profits up 10% on previous year. The report should read HSBC made £21.5bn last year but after adjustments the pre tax profit stood at £12.8bn up 10% on last year. So when people want to borrow the same old story will come spewing out, due to the credit crunch we have to charge you more did you not hear we lost £8.7bn due to this credit crunch. Banks will be cashing in on this for years.

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Slightly off topic, but when I listen to news reports about tight credit i sometimes wounder how much of a crunch there is or is it an excuse for banks to make even more proffit. For example HSBC reported it lost £8.7bn. However It made £12.8bn pre tax profits up 10% on previous year. The report should read HSBC made £21.5bn last year but after adjustments the pre tax profit stood at £12.8bn up 10% on last year. So when people want to borrow the same old story will come spewing out, due to the credit crunch we have to charge you more did you not hear we lost £8.7bn due to this credit crunch. Banks will be cashing in on this for years.

I think the 8.7 "loss" was actual bad debt and not actually a loss per say....anyone able to verify that???

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I think the 8.7 "loss" was actual bad debt and not actually a loss per say....anyone able to verify that???

Read it on sky business

http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30400-1307645,00.html

Don't know if this is confirmation but if it was reported on sky business that the property market lost 20% last month sky business would be quoted as fact.

HSBC still made £12.2bn not bad for any business.

Edited by statinstoinker

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I'm one big bad bear. B)

At least you are in the right place then! lol! I enjoy your posts because you challenge my thinking and I'd like to think that I will challenge yours a little in the coming weeks. Somewhere in between our views probably lies the truth but only time will tell.

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At least you are in the right place then! lol! I enjoy your posts because you challenge my thinking and I'd like to think that I will challenge yours a little in the coming weeks. Somewhere in between our views probably lies the truth but only time will tell.

are you md in disguise :unsure::P

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At least you are in the right place then! lol! I enjoy your posts because you challenge my thinking and I'd like to think that I will challenge yours a little in the coming weeks. Somewhere in between our views probably lies the truth but only time will tell.

I have history on my side. You argue with history if you want. :rolleyes:

Those who forget...

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are you md in disguise :unsure::P

I am not MD in disguise, and while I may have agreed with some of what he said he did waffle on so much that by the time I finished reading just his post I was ready for a bottle of red, a cigar and some time out! lol! Also I'm not trying to argue with history, all I'm saying is that while history MAY give an indication of future economic cycles, it does not mean that those predicted cycles will actualy occur!?! Predictions from either side are best guesses-they are not fact! They may or may not happen! Time will prove if me and you were either right or wrong! I expect the next HPI quarterly report for Nothern Ireland to report further falls (partly because of inflated asking prices that may not have been achievable even at the peak). In Quarter 3 I expect house prices to stabilize slightly and fully stabilze by Q4, mainly because in some areas prices have already dipped so low that institutional investors have re-entered the market due to the attainable rent exceeding the mortgage outgoings, thus giving a positive yield and a 'real' reason to invest in NI property! Capital gains at this point will just be an added bonus for 'real' investors!

Edited by championmongo1

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I am not MD in disguise, and while I may have agreed with some of what he said he did waffle on so much that by the time I finished reading just his post I was ready for a bottle of red, a cigar and some time out! lol! Also I'm not trying to argue with history, all I'm saying is that while history MAY give an indication of future economic cycles, it does not mean that those predicted cycles will actualy occur!?! Predictions from either side are best guesses-they are not fact! They may or may not happen! Time will prove if me and you were either right or wrong! I expect the next HPI quarterly report for Nothern Ireland to report further falls (partly because of inflated asking prices that may not have been achievable even at the peak). In Quarter 3 I expect house prices to stabilize slightly and fully stabilze by Q4, mainly because in some areas prices have already dipped so low that institutional investors have re-entered the market due to the attainable rent exceeding the mortgage outgoings, thus giving a positive yield and a 'real' reason to invest in NI property! Capital gains at this point will just be an added bonus for 'real' investors!

The Maths have been done here, a fall of 50% from peak value is needed to cover an IO mortgage. Throw in related expenses (rates,insurance,stamp duty & legal fees) along with a more reluctant lending environment, I'd say a bloodbath is required. While people were keen to buy and rely on capital growth, I dare say the future for BTL is quite cloudy

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In Quarter 3 I expect house prices to stabilize slightly and fully stabilze by Q4, mainly because in some areas prices have already dipped so low that institutional investors have re-entered the market due to the attainable rent exceeding the mortgage outgoings, thus giving a positive yield and a 'real' reason to invest in NI property! Capital gains at this point will just be an added bonus for 'real' investors!

IMO, that would be a classic bull trap. The days of silly increases are over and this is for numerous reasons and this is what attracted many of the specuvestors (or flippers). Regarding yields, everything I have read makes me think it would be better investing in a high interest bank account than property for the foreseeable. There is virtually no risk, guaranteed yearly yield and you get get at the equity any time you like.

Actually, I'd quite like to see investors dive back in again, just to watch them get screwed over once the drops pick up momentum again after the bull trap. Not for spiteful reasons, of course, but just to teach them a lesson they can't forget, if they haven't already learnt it since last summer!

Ultimately though, I'm not convinced a bull trap will even happen - the falls are coming in so thick and fast, it wouldn't be something wise investors would gamble on.

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Looks like some " experts" agree with you

http://www.independent.ie/unsorted/propert...ng-1311192.html

and some more from the main thread

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2008/mar/0...oneyinvestments

No more takers for dream of becoming property millionaire

· Buy-to-let investment firm ends learner workshops

· Business model collapses in face of lending crisis

* Patrick Collinson

* The Guardian,

* Saturday March 8 2008

* Article history

Britain's biggest property investment company, which boasted in newspaper ads that investors could "give up work and be a property millionaire instead", said yesterday it would suspend seminars and cut 40 jobs - in the latest sign that the buy-to-let fuelled property boom is over.

Business model collapses in face of lending crisis
Don't tell all those 'real' institutional investors that. :D:D:D

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With the Irish Economy so dependent on Housing, there has probably been a major VI effort (Builders & Banks) to prevent loans defaulting and builders going under. They have been crashing for over a year, FFS! I see even now Bertie is saying its all gonna go tits up

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/ge...ch-1313149.html

Edited by Vespasian

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Guest vicmac64
With the Irish Economy so dependent on Housing, there has probably been a major VI effort (Builders & Banks) to prevent loans defaulting and builders going under. They have been crashing for over a year, FFS! I see even now Bertie is saying its all gonna go tits up

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/ge...ch-1313149.html

I think they are now at the end of their tether - hardly a word during the whole credit crunch and suddenly!!!!!

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I think they are now at the end of their tether - hardly a word during the whole credit crunch and suddenly!!!!!

There are rumours, Vicmac on propertypin that banks were giving builders in the ROI until April to shift property before they called in loans. May/June may make very interesting reading

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Guest vicmac64
There are rumours, Vicmac on propertypin that banks were giving builders in the ROI until April to shift property before they called in loans. May/June may make very interesting reading

Yeah Vespasian I heard the same thing ref builders in Northern Ireland as well - that was before christmas and the word on the street back then was March April too...

This is going to get very ugly very quickly.....

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If we have worked out here what is going to happen: I'll guarantee the banks know what is going to happen.

The banks lend out the money which forced up prices. Now the banks need to try and get their money back before the sheeple waken up.

If there are no signs of the market picking up, in the next couple of months, then this will get very bad, very quick.

Imagine what will happen to house prices if banks start to repossess entire developments!

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Guest vicmac64
If we have worked out here what is going to happen: I'll guarantee the banks know what is going to happen.

The banks lend out the money which forced up prices. Now the banks need to try and get their money back before the sheeple waken up.

If there are no signs of the market picking up, in the next couple of months, then this will get very bad, very quick.

Imagine what will happen to house prices if banks start to repossess entire developments!

I think this will happen very quickly now - and as soon as the first bank is seen to move in force all other lenders will do so within days - so watch and listen for that dam buster event.

I hope you get the property you want BB, at a fair price.

Have you opted for a safer harbour than sterling - I haven't to date but I think I will have to make a decision this week for sure - its my guess this derivatives bubble is about to burst - I think that is what is pushing gold up. PP woke me up the other day in one of his posts - and I think he could well be right.

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  • 297 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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