DoctorJ Posted March 2, 2008 Share Posted March 2, 2008 (edited) Prices set at the marginsAt any given point in time there is only a small fraction of homes on the market for sale. Drive down any street of the 88 cities in Los Angeles and you will see homes for sale, but not many. Unless you are driving in some home builder subdivision in Arizona or a condo high-rise in Florida, the majority of this country isn’t selling each and every single home on the block. But the media now has this fear mongering idea that if the market corrects, every person is going to be bumming cigarettes under the San Gabriel River. There are approximately 6,000,000 housing units in Southern California. Keep in mind this includes apartments, rentals, and owner occupied homes. Now how many homes are for sale as of today in SoCal? How about 139,689 or to make it more tangible, only 2.33 percent of all available housing units in the area. Doesn’t seem like the entire neighborhood is going to hell in a hand basket as the media would like us to believe. And keep in mind that we are seeing record foreclosures and inventory here in Southern California and as of today, we are still only seeing 2.33 percent of all available units on the market for sale. See, not everyone bought into this housing bubble. Some people decided to rent. As I’ve pointed out the majority of households in Los Angeles County rent. Some people decided that they would rather save their money and wait the market out. Some are simply going to rent because they unfortunately cannot afford a home. This idea that everyone should own their home is dangerous and has also led us into this mortgage market debacle. If you are unable to buy a home without a shady zero down mortgage maybe you should wait until you can buy a home with more conventional financing. Others, bought before this entire bubble game started. So they are still sitting pretty on equity and have no plans of selling. There are also approximately 20 percent of people in Los Angeles that own their homes outright; many of these people are retired or nearing retirement and have no vision of flipping their homes. So the battle comes down to those that want to buy and those that want to sell right now. It looks like more and more people are wanting to sell and less and less people want to buy (or at least buy at current market prices). And why would you buy right now with prices decreasing each and every day? In addition, the prospect of you flipping and turning a profit now is as likely as the British Labour party winning the next election. Dr Housing Bubble This is for California, and the market there is taking a good spanking, but it makes the point. Does anyone know where to find comparable UK information? Edited March 2, 2008 by DoctorJ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted March 2, 2008 Share Posted March 2, 2008 (edited) I reckon all information and statistics are massaged or flawed in some way? No I don`t know where to find the information at the moment, I just like ranting into a computer, I`m sure plenty on here do though. The article is good, really only the players get burned or make a profit depending on how they play.Buying into the bubble is starting to look like a very dumb move, and the more people fret and panic about their rash peer pressure decisions, the more we are going to see "homeowners" trying to cut and run. The wolf is traversing the pasture now looking for his first kill. SELL SELL SELL RUN RUN RUN RENT RENT RENT. Edited March 2, 2008 by dances with sheeple Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needle Posted March 2, 2008 Share Posted March 2, 2008 I reckon all information and statistics are massaged or flawed in some way? Heres a simple analogy - The word 'tomato'. Depending on where you are it can be pronounced differently. Is it 'Tom-ay-to' or 'Tom-aa-to'? Well, both are correct. But wondering how it is pronounced makes no difference to the object you are descibing - a tomato. Its the same with statistics. They can be 'pronounced' several different ways (prices are going up, prices are going down, prices are going sidewards) but at the end of the day it doesnt actually matter. You cant live in a stastic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted March 2, 2008 Share Posted March 2, 2008 (edited) Heres a simple analogy -The word 'tomato'. Depending on where you are it can be pronounced differently. Is it 'Tom-ay-to' or 'Tom-aa-to'? Well, both are correct. But wondering how it is pronounced makes no difference to the object you are descibing - a tomato. Its the same with statistics. They can be 'pronounced' several different ways (prices are going up, prices are going down, prices are going sidewards) but at the end of the day it doesnt actually matter. You cant live in a stastic. you can`t live in a tomato either. Edited March 2, 2008 by dances with sheeple Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingsgate Posted March 2, 2008 Share Posted March 2, 2008 You can't live in a stastic.you can`t live in a tomato either. Wise words. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LazyDay Posted March 2, 2008 Share Posted March 2, 2008 You cant live in a stastic. Well, the problem is not statistics, the problem is interpretation. Same old problem that bugs any news coverage, religion issues etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
domo Posted March 2, 2008 Share Posted March 2, 2008 The other way to look at is is that is only takes one transaction to set the new price for a asset. Thats it, one sale and the value of 1000 other homes declines in like with that one transaction. But I guess its just one sale, so uh it doesn't really mean nothing right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needle Posted March 2, 2008 Share Posted March 2, 2008 You cant live in a stastic. you can`t live in a tomato either. Wise words. Yeah but statistically you could live in a tomato. You couldnt tomatoly live in a statistic. LMFAO @ Kingsgate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravity always wins Posted March 2, 2008 Share Posted March 2, 2008 Well, the problem is not statistics, the problem is interpretation. Same old problem that bugs any news coverage, religion issues etc. Context - they never quote statistics in their proper context - thats what bugs me (amongst many things - of course) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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