The Masked Tulip Posted February 29, 2008 Author Share Posted February 29, 2008 But the trend is still down... there is a small rally then a collapse down to a lower ledge... then a small rally and so on downwards... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beans on toast Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 (edited) I was half expecting Bernanke to pop up and announce another rate cut, to rally the market. Its game over Bernanke. No amount of rate cuts is going to turn this dog around. The US is now festering in its own shitfest, created by Greenspan by creating bubble after bubble. Theres no puff left in that dog anymore for another bubble. Edited February 29, 2008 by beans on toast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
algobet Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 They can't let the monoline insurers go under so the banks have to finance a rescue option. Surely, as soon as another rescue package is annouced the Dow will soar again?What is the number one qualification for working in Wall St or the City - spine removal? the monolines will go under. but while everyone who takes as much interest as us will know when it happens it will never be announced as such. even if they go legally bankrupt i cant see them going in to chapter 11 as it will be too scary for jo public. ......actually come think of it if the average american hears "ambac has gone into chapter 11" on the news theyre more likely to think theyre talking about a harry potter novel. so what they wont say is "a really big company which is very important doesnt have any money and you arent getting paid on monday to serve burgers to all your fat friends." i love americans, no really, i do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lufc Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 I was half expecting Bernanke to pop up and announce another rate cut, to rally the market.Its game over Bernanke. No amount of rate cuts is going to turn this dog around. The US is now festering in its own shitfest, created by Greenspan by creating bubble after bubble. Theres no puff left in that dog anymore for another bubble. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home "Traders increasingly anticipate the Fed will reduce its benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage point at or before the March 18 meeting of policy makers, according to futures prices. The chance of a three-quarter-point cut rose to 56 percent from 36 percent yesterday and 2 percent a week ago." All hell will be let loose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest muttley Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 But the trend is still down... there is a small rally then a collapse down to a lower ledge... then a small rally and so on downwards... What are you basing your "the trend is down" on? The lower ledge is no lower than Feb 11th this year. There is nothing on the markets today that can't be dismissed as noise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldfinger Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 What are you basing your "the trend is down" on? The lower ledge is no lower than Feb 11th this year. There is nothing on the markets today that can't be dismissed as noise. Well, well, well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest muttley Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 Well, well, well. Complete bolloks, GF. Do you understand the concept of "trends"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldfinger Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 Complete bolloks, GF. Do you understand the concept of "trends"? Sorry, muttley. Didn't read the whole thread. Read 'Dow' & 'trend down', wholeheartedly agreed, and posted a related chart illustrating the point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest muttley Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 Sorry, muttley. Didn't read the whole thread. Read 'Dow' & 'trend down', wholeheartedly agreed, and posted a related chart illustrating the point. Then you misunderstood my reply. The trend for the DOW isn't down based on one days analysis. Plotting it against gold, or crude oil or anything else that is increasing in price is a pointless exercise. Show me a graph of gold v crude oil and tell me which one is trending down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldfinger Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 Then you misunderstood my reply. The trend for the DOW isn't down based on one days analysis. Plotting it against gold, or crude oil or anything else that is increasing in price is a pointless exercise. Show me a graph of gold v crude oil and tell me which one is trending down. See attached chart. At the moment this ratio is at slightly below 10, so, gold has been losing against crude over the last two decades. Time for gold to catch up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest muttley Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 See attached chart. At the moment this ratio is at slightly below 10, so, gold has been losing against crude over the last two decades.Time for gold to catch up. So if I were to post that "gold is trending down" you would say I was right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Charlie The Tramp Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 A Google Ad on HPC. Oh Dear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC10 Posted March 1, 2008 Share Posted March 1, 2008 The market has finally woken up, the US has already gone into recession. monday will be interesting. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/fe...nomy.wallstreet "New year sales in American shopping malls failed to budge a mood of caution among consumers according to lacklustre high-street spending figures which sent stocks plummeting downwards on Wall Street yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest muttley Posted March 1, 2008 Share Posted March 1, 2008 The market has finally woken up, the US has already gone into recession. Not by any usual definition of recession. Do you reckon we were the only ones to know this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobthe~ Posted March 1, 2008 Share Posted March 1, 2008 (edited) Not by any usual definition of recession.Do you reckon we were the only ones to know this? I would add, which I think is what you were implying, that a recession is only known 6 months after the event, by definition. They may already be in a recession though, since 4Q GDP was only 0.6% annualised (presumably meaning only 0.15% in that quarter), and that trend is definitely down. Edit to add: Has anyone else noticed what appears to be a causal relationship between a bad day/week on the Dow with bleating calls for rate cuts? As muttley said, this is back to the levels on 11th Feb. They weren't calling for them then (or were they). Maybe they engineer these little crashlets just to prod Bernanke to cut a few more points off so they can screw savers and borrowers at the same time. Edited March 1, 2008 by bobthe~ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest muttley Posted March 1, 2008 Share Posted March 1, 2008 I would add, which I think is what you were implying, that a recession is only known 6 months after the event, by definition.They may already be in a recession though, since 4Q GDP was only 0.6% annualised (presumably meaning only 0.15% in that quarter), and that trend is definitely down. Agreed. Would you say that the market was unaware of this until today? (Not that you said or implied that.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoami Posted March 1, 2008 Share Posted March 1, 2008 (edited) I would add, which I think is what you were implying, that a recession is only known 6 months after the event, by definition. Actually, it's perfectly possible for a recession not to be officially 'detected' until over 8 months after the underlying recessionary trend has begun. Which is what certain IBs are currently implying when they state that we are already in one. In which case, it's also possible to be already out of recession before the start of a recession has officially been declared. Ain't economics fun, eh Edited March 1, 2008 by whoami Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted March 1, 2008 Share Posted March 1, 2008 (edited) Then you misunderstood my reply. The trend for the DOW isn't down based on one days analysis. Plotting it against gold, or crude oil or anything else that is increasing in price is a pointless exercise. Show me a graph of gold v crude oil and tell me which one is trending down. Or against black gold (coal)! Recession is 100% certain, guaranteed as the herd have stopped spending and are going into lock-down mode: http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/busines...39-economy.html The chill wind of a severe recession is already in the UK as Brown goes around the country preparing for the May elections telling them 3 basic things: 1. We have had 10 years of uninterrupted growth 2. Mortgage IR are lower than under the tories 3. Inflation is the lowest among the G7 Betfair are offering odds on him being out of office by the end of the 2nd Q. Severe recessions and deflation follow each other as a hangover follows an allnight drinking binge. Edited March 1, 2008 by Realistbear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted March 1, 2008 Author Share Posted March 1, 2008 1. I agree to bail out monoline insurer. 2. Dow rises. 3. I short Dow bigtime. 4. I publicly pull out of bailing out monoline insurer. 5. Dow tanks. I make lots and lots of money. 6. I bail out monoline insurer but instead on even tougher terms in my favour. 7. I'll get me coat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rover Posted March 1, 2008 Share Posted March 1, 2008 It will finish above 12340. Probably below 12380. Abit off there Bud. 12266 it finished. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted March 1, 2008 Share Posted March 1, 2008 Abit off there Bud. 12266 it finished. Futures carried on the bounce just after the close to 12306, but yes not quite the recovery I was expecting. I bought in at 12285 (closed at 12300) and 12235 (letting it run til Monday open which should retrace some of the losses early doors). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldfinger Posted March 1, 2008 Share Posted March 1, 2008 So if I were to post that "gold is trending down" you would say I was right? Gold when priced in oil is trending down, yes. But against most other things its going up. The Dow is going down against basically everything, I suppose (except houses, CDOs and the USD)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldfinger Posted March 1, 2008 Share Posted March 1, 2008 Futures carried on the bounce just after the close to 12306, but yes not quite the recovery I was expecting. I bought in at 12285 (closed at 12300) and 12235 (letting it run til Monday open which should retrace some of the losses early doors). RK You go short gold and you go long the Dow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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