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Nationwide 29th Feb Data

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Really is here now. First 3 month on 3 month fall for a very long time (not even in 05 did that happen), and YOY negative probably by March data set, ie. end of April the headlines will read negative YOY, at the worst April, although we are already below April prices.

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The best evidence yet that this will not just be 'another 2005'. Looking at the second row of graphs on page 3, the YoY pattern looks very similar to that of early / mid 2005, but the QoQ graph tells a completely different story. I also like the 'we're not as screwed as America' graph on page 2.

Paddles can rest easy now that Fionnuala is back!

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The funny thing about Nationwide is that the more the news has got worse the less spin they have put on it. Sounds to me like they're not laden down with sub-prime mortgages.

Good to see that those freak growth months of early last year are finally dropping out:

YOY: Jan 4.2%, Feb 2.7%

Real terms annual fall already. Bring on the nominal falls.

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Guest The_Oldie

BBC News 24 just reported this, ending up with....

"......and the outlook for UK house prices, from Nationwide, is flat I'm afraid".

Then quickly went on to a bit of "good news" about increased profit at some advertising company.

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Of course a certain presenter on BBC this morning (Adam Shaw) after reporting this and moving

onto another item, said "and now some good news...."

He is a VI who admitted on Working Lunch last year that he invests in property. Another example of a presenter

giving their opinion on an item that is not reflected by everyone. :angry:

It IS good news for a lot of people. Can't find a 'post your comment' space on the bbc website

to add comments yet

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BBC News 24 just reported this, ending up with....

"......and the outlook for UK house prices, from Nationwide, is flat I'm afraid".

Then quickly went on to a bit of "good news" about increased profit at some advertising company.

Even the BBC should be able to read the very first line and bullet point.

"House prices fell by 0.5% in February, the fourth consecutive monthly decline"

Everyone here knows it but how can they say flat.

Edit:

I watched for half an hour and nothing about the housing index, just the British Property Federation saying companies should buy flats to rent out.

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Guest The_Oldie
Of course a certain presenter on BBC this morning (Adam Shaw) after reporting this and moving

onto another item, said "and now some good news...."

He is a VI who admitted on Working Lunch last year that he invests in property. Another example of a presenter

I'm not at all surprised, he seemed very glum about the NW figures and made it quite clear that he thinks HPI is a good thing.

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The funny thing about Nationwide is that the more the news has got worse the less spin they have put on it. Sounds to me like they're not laden down with sub-prime mortgages.

Good to see that those freak growth months of early last year are finally dropping out:

YOY: Jan 4.2%, Feb 2.7%

Real terms annual fall already. Bring on the nominal falls.

I'm happy to stand corrected by anyone with more accurate knowledge, but I have a feeling that they have at least 60% of their mortgages funded by depositors , and my experience of them as lenders is uber-cautious not to say nit-picking.

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Thing about that graph - the overall trend seems to be higher than it should be just because of the huge recent bubble distorting things..

Which is why in a crash prices over shoot on the down side.

Also I wonder how Shitemove will spin this. "But but but but.... asking prices are up 10 per cent"

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Don't forget that these indices merely show Nationwide's own lending book, so that at any time they really only reflect their ability/stupidity in lending lending out more money for the much the same housing stock.

You could quite easily get to the situation where one or other of these lender based indices were massively wide of the general market (both higher and lower). Just imagine what a Northern Rock house price index would have looked like.

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Sep-07 £184,723

Oct-07 £186,044

Nov-07 £184,099

Dec-07 £182,080

Jan-08 £180,473

Feb-08 £179,358

So prices are down 3.6% from their peak in Oct-07. Nice! :lol::lol::lol:

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Thing about that graph - the overall trend seems to be higher than it should be just because of the huge recent bubble distorting things..

yes - the trend line went through the levelling off in Q3 00 which was when I felt fair value had been reached after the oversold status in the mid 90s

That is what I have based my calls for a correction on - down to this trend line drawn through that Q3 00 point - a drop of 40% when the credit is removed

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BBC News 24 just reported this, ending up with....

"......and the outlook for UK house prices, from Nationwide, is flat I'm afraid".

And if you're someone who's struggling to cover the mortgage on your BTL, this makes property totally useless as an investment. If you want your money back, it's probably too late to sell. Back of the net! ;)

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Sep-07 £184,723

Oct-07 £186,044

Nov-07 £184,099

Dec-07 £182,080

Jan-08 £180,473

Feb-08 £179,358

So prices are down 3.6% from their peak in Oct-07. Nice! :lol::lol::lol:

They have seasoned a bit as well (I posted last night that they season Feb down, but I think I got that wrong).

The raw figure was -0.62% (any checking on my sums gratefully received).

March and April is where they season the figures down substantially and we have about 1.5% of "pent up crash" still to show in the figures.

I think March to go YoY -ve is a bit too much to hope for, but April should be a done deal I reckon.

On the subject of Rightmove, since there are a lot of figures produced each month, some showing rises, some showing falls, seasoned accordingly, why don't we help them out and produce an index that shows only the best figures from each month. That should make them feel better.

We could send it to Anne Ashworth and Stuart Law.

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Yes, yes, yes, encouraging news but you've all missed the most important piece of information in the report;

Fionaulalala's back!

It was only a skiing holiday last month and not the golden bullet we were all worried about. Great news; she will be the one to personally deliver the "Year on Year Negative Growth" statement on the Today Programme at the end of April.

I think I'm going to book that day off work and have a celebratory drink for breakfast.

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Yes, yes, yes, encouraging news but you've all missed the most important piece of information in the report;

Fionaulalala's back!

It was only a skiing holiday last month and not the golden bullet we were all worried about. Great news; she will be the one to personally deliver the "Year on Year Negative Growth" statement on the Today Programme at the end of April.

I think I'm going to book that day off work and have a celebratory drink for breakfast.

It might be at the end of March. Better book that one too.

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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