Oil Hits $102 Pb

[Bearfacts]

Latest from Bloomberg:

Nymex Crude Future 102.10 2.46 2.47 14:23

Dated Brent Spot 101.05 2.71 2.76 14:53

WTI Cushing Spot 102.21 2.57 2.58 14:08

I think this is a new record ?

I seem to remember when oil was hovering around the $70-$80 mark a number of economists ( David Smith in particular ) stated that it wouldnt become a problem unless it hit the $100 pb mark which would match the inflation adjusted high from the 70s. Of course he said this just won't happen , infact he confidently predicted oil returning to the $30-$40 range - DOH.

I have also read today that Bernanke reckons that inflation will fall back once last years steep rises drop out of the equation - surely it takes time for the increase in raw material costs to feed through into inflation in products ? I am sure he knows this - so is he just kidding himself so he can go ahead and cut rates willy nilly ?

I get the uneasy feeling that the US is trying to get the rest of the world to pay for its mistakes.

[Leonard Hatred]

This will actually help consumer spending. Forcing people to pay lots more for essentials will soon get those spending figures up

[time 2 raise interest rates]

Blanchflowers not he's currently sunning himself on a sunbed in florida mumbling on about chickens at Tescos.

[time 2 raise interest rates]

Latest from Bloomberg:

Nymex Crude Future 102.10 2.46 2.47 14:23

Dated Brent Spot 101.05 2.71 2.76 14:53

WTI Cushing Spot 102.21 2.57 2.58 14:08

I think this is a new record ?

I seem to remember when oil was hovering around the $70-$80 mark a number of economists ( David Smith in particular ) stated that it wouldnt become a problem unless it hit the $100 pb mark which would match the inflation adjusted high from the 70s. Of course he said this just won't happen , infact he confidently predicted oil returning to the $30-$40 range - DOH.

As it happens Ms Lomax said the same thing after voting to cut interest rates in Aug 2005, and they get paid for pedalling this sh*t.

[tinecu]

Blanchflowers not he's currently sunning himself on a sunbed in florida mumbling on about chickens at Tescos.

[Errol]

Yep, definately deflation.

[Jonnybegood]

I think prices will fall back come end of May , June.

For us the colder weather will have past reducing our energy needs, those on pay as you go type meters will find a bit more money in their pockets.

Large parts of the rest of the world will reduce their need for oil and so prices at the pumps will ease back to below £1 litre, China will cut back production within the next 2 years as it peaks on a downturn in world demand for its goods.

This will lessen demand on all raw materials and allow the bank to cut IR, this is what they are hoping and it may just happen.

Very hard to predict

[time 2 raise interest rates]

I think prices will fall back come end of May , June.

For us the colder weather will have past reducing our energy needs, those on pay as you go type meters will find a bit more money in their pockets.

Large parts of the rest of the world will reduce their need for oil and so prices at the pumps will ease back to below £1 litre, China will cut back production within the next 2 years as it peaks on a downturn in world demand for its goods.

This will lessen demand on all raw materials and allow the bank to cut IR, this is what they are hoping and it may just happen.

Very hard to predict

What's that smell.

oh yeah it's bulls*it.

[Minos]

I think prices will fall back come end of May , June.

For us the colder weather will have past reducing our energy needs, those on pay as you go type meters will find a bit more money in their pockets.

Large parts of the rest of the world will reduce their need for oil and so prices at the pumps will ease back to below £1 litre, China will cut back production within the next 2 years as it peaks on a downturn in world demand for its goods.

This will lessen demand on all raw materials and allow the bank to cut IR, this is what they are hoping and it may just happen.

Very hard to predict

Prices will fall back in time for the US driving season ? Are you sure about that ?

[Its time to buy]

Houses have gone up 10x plus in 30 years -

Oil, food etc hasnt done anything by comparison. It wouldnt surprise me if these essentials went up 10x from these levels.

Prices, once they start to get out of hand go up until your eyes water.

[Goldfinger]

Yep, definately deflation.

Yes. It scares me a lot.

Gold $970, also very deflated, BTW.

[Guest Steve Cook]

Invest in oil futures or options for at least two years ahead. If you do, there is nothing (not even gold GF...... ) that will beat it. I hereby predict that oil will be over $140 per barrel by the end of this year. $200 per barrel will be in sight by the end of 211. Possibly a bit sooner.

The oil age is drawing to a close.

The only thing to watch out for is how quickly the world-market structure (indeed the world's entire global economic structure) will unravel once the markets reach a "eureka" moment if you like with regards to the dawning realisation that the energy shortfall cannot be reversed. When this happens, I wouldn't like to be in the position of trying to extract my electronically invested fiat currency out of the markets in order to put it into something more tangible ( gold perhaps methinks...... ..... )

Steve

Edited February 29, 2008 by Steve Cook

[Compounded]

The oil age is drawing to a close.

It makes sense to stock up on just about anything as virtually all the things you use up are derivatives of oil including food and clothes.

Fill the freezer with meat, high wheat prices have caused farmers to slaughter early --> short term oversupply to be followed by shortages and higher prices.

[Bearfacts]

I think prices will fall back come end of May , June.

For us the colder weather will have past reducing our energy needs, those on pay as you go type meters will find a bit more money in their pockets.

Large parts of the rest of the world will reduce their need for oil and so prices at the pumps will ease back to below £1 litre, China will cut back production within the next 2 years as it peaks on a downturn in world demand for its goods.

This will lessen demand on all raw materials and allow the bank to cut IR, this is what they are hoping and it may just happen.

Very hard to predict

You are David Smith - I claim my £5.

Seriously though I think the reason oil is going up is because Helicopter Ben Bernanke is devaluing the dollar by slashing IRs - thats what I meant by the rest of the world paying the price i.e we all get inflation - the CBs are too chicken to tackle it and let our savings and currency devalue.

[South Lorne]

....another fuel for inflation..

[stuckmojo]

It will need a hell of a downturn to push commodity prices down. Especially now that investors slightly more awake than sheeple realised that property and real estate is a losing game. What the industries won't buy, the investors will speculate on.

Personally, I think I will invest in Uranium or something used in a nuclear reaction. And solar technology. and I will go in long on these ones

edited for spelling. again. stupid italian keyboard

Edited February 29, 2008 by stuckmojo

[Harold Bishop]

Fill the freezer with meat

And how much will the electricity cost to run your freezer ? What if electricity is rationed ? Your meat will go off faster than you can eat it.

[bear_or_bull]

Invest in oil futures or options for at least two years ahead. If you do, there is nothing (not even gold GF...... ) that will beat it. I hereby predict that oil will be over $140 per barrel by the end of this year. $200 per barrel will be in sight by the end of 211. Possibly a bit sooner.

The oil age is drawing to a close.

The only thing to watch out for is how quickly the world-market structure (indeed the world's entire global economic structure) will unravel once the markets reach a "eureka" moment if you like with regards to the dawning realisation that the energy shortfall cannot be reversed. When this happens, I wouldn't like to be in the position of trying to extract my electronically invested fiat currency out of the markets in order to put it into something more tangible ( gold perhaps methinks...... ..... )

Steve

Very bullish oil forecast. I have to say it's possible, but it's a very risky strategy.

Long term, oil will peak / has peaked, but the current price reflects a considerable (although very difficult to quantify) premium over fundamentals. And even the fundamentals are somewhat controlled by the opaque shenanigans of OPEC.

There is a lot of production due in the next two years from a lot of OECD projects. If this was combined with a recession/depression you could find a significant oversupply. Even if OPEC cuts back its economies are so dependent on oil wealth (to keep a generation of young men happy) that they'll over produce as much as they can.

As a say, long term I believe that production will peak and prices will rise, but it will be a VERY bumpy road on the way.

(interestingly, re: Eureka. Many of the banks now seem to be anticipating peak oil. Was looking at a CITI research paper on BP that talked in black and white about a declining oil world. First time I've seen that).

[Lander]

It will need a hell of a downturn to push commodity prices down. Especially now that investors slightly more awake than sheeple realised that property and real estate is a losing game. What the industries won't buy, the investors will speculate on.

Personally, I think I will invest in Uranium or something used in a nuclear reaction. And solar technology. and I will go in long on these ones

edited for spelling. again. stupid italian keyboard

Oil dropped $10 a few weeks back on speculation that the US was closer to recession than originally thought. I beleive the US is entering recession now which will have worsened significantly by the end of this year. If the recession spreads globally, as many are predicting, couple this with 100k more barrels of light crude coming onto the market in the next 6 months from SA then oil will drop back down to $70, maybe lower in the next couple of years.

[Bearfacts]

Latest from Bloomberg:

Nymex Crude Future 102.10 2.46 2.47 14:23

Dated Brent Spot 101.05 2.71 2.76 14:53

WTI Cushing Spot 102.21 2.57 2.58 14:08

I think this is a new record ?

I seem to remember when oil was hovering around the $70-$80 mark a number of economists ( David Smith in particular ) stated that it wouldnt become a problem unless it hit the $100 pb mark which would match the inflation adjusted high from the 70s. Of course he said this just won't happen , infact he confidently predicted oil returning to the $30-$40 range - DOH.

Just read that the new inflation adjusted high for oil was $104 hit in the eighties - so we're alright then - few that was a close call - don't panic !

[Kurt Barlow]

And how much will the electricity cost to run your freezer ? What if electricity is rationed ? Your meat will go off faster than you can eat it.

Tinned food, rice and pasta - excellent shelf keeping qualities

[Minos]

Tinned food, rice and pasta - excellent shelf keeping qualities

I've often wondered about tinned food. Have far past the sell by date can you go before it kills you ?

[Guest Charlie The Tramp]

I've often wondered about tinned food. Have far past the sell by date can you go before it kills you ?

In the past before date stamping of tinned food, it was treated as being lifelong, only if the tin was blown would it be dangerous to eat.

[Kurt Barlow]

I've often wondered about tinned food. Have far past the sell by date can you go before it kills you ?

Canned food does not have a sell by - it has a best before which is a quality not a food safety parameter.

As long as the air seal lasts - its safe and then if the air seal goes the can will blow or just go mouldy. Tinned food is commercially sterile and effectively has an indefinite shelf life. Canned food from the napoleonic wars has been open and found to be microbiogically safe to eat.

The big risk with canned food is undercooking - if clostridium botulinium spores survive then you have a recipe for botulism food poisoning as a can is an air free environment. This is why neutral preserved foods are cooked to 121 degrees for about 30 seconds - to kill the spores.

[huw]

Canned food does not have a sell by - it has a best before which is a quality not a food safety parameter.

As long as the air seal lasts - its safe and then if the air seal goes the can will blow or just go mouldy. Tinned food is commercially sterile and effectively has an indefinite shelf life. Canned food from the napoleonic wars has been open and found to be microbiogically safe to eat.

The big risk with canned food is undercooking - if clostridium botulinium spores survive then you have a recipe for botulism food poisoning as a can is an air free environment. This is why neutral preserved foods are cooked to 121 degrees for about 30 seconds - to kill the spores.

And it's bulky compared to the dried equivalent because you're storing the required water as well. Good if you're not sure of your water and fuel supply, not so good if you're short on space. And don't forget to stock up on can openers too