Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
cartimandua51

Nationwide Figures Due Tomorrow?

Recommended Posts

I assume Nationwide will be publishing its figures tomorrow?

My guess is about -1%

Unlike Rightmove, which uses asking prices, Nationwide methodology is

"House price information is derived from Nationwide lending data for properties at the post survey approval stage"

i.e. serious offer but pre-completion. Still susceptible to collapsing chains, but a lot more realistic that Rightmove, as the sellers have already presumably accepted the offer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I assume Nationwide will be publishing its figures tomorrow?

My guess is about -1%

Don't be daft I predict it will be 0.0001% rise - any price drops will be taken as an error and so excluded from the analysis...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Don't be daft I predict it will be 0.0001% rise - any price drops will be taken as an error and so excluded from the analysis...

Well, they reported a fall last month

House prices fell by a modest 0.1% in January, the third consecutive monthly decline

Nationwide do seem to be one of the more cautious & responsible lenders; perhaps excessively so - I'm still narked at their refusal to give my 19 year old daughter , who has a savings a/c of £3000 and £1500 in her current account, a DEBIT card!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

fall last month, so I predict a 0.1 percent rise this month and lots of harping on about the first signs of a thaw in the market for Spring etc etc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I assume Nationwide will be publishing its figures tomorrow?

My guess is about -1%

Unlike Rightmove, which uses asking prices, Nationwide methodology is

"House price information is derived from Nationwide lending data for properties at the post survey approval stage"

i.e. serious offer but pre-completion. Still susceptible to collapsing chains, but a lot more realistic that Rightmove, as the sellers have already presumably accepted the offer.

They will never admit to a falling market. The best you will get from their adjusted, seasoned and baked data is a minus 0.01% or so.

The most reliable data comes from:

1. New mortgage activity

2. Levels of stress as reflected in reposession rates

3. Auction sale prices together with new build discounts

4. RICS sentiment surveys

5. Anectdotal evidence of actual percentage price drops compared with price paid after adjusting for improvements

6. Builder stock prices

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fionallulu atoodledodo McEarley said:

"On the one hand things are looking good, on the other hand, perhaps, slightly not so good. While there are some encouraging signs there are other, less important and tending towards the miniscule, signs that could be interpreted - if you were of a particularly gloomy and pessimistic nature - as not quite so encouraging as the other much more encouraging signs.

Given the standards of the times, by and large, to put it in a nutshell - it's not easy to look for a definitive indication from these latest figures. Although some people might foolishly interpret them as indicating a (may God strike me dead for saying it) downward move in house prices, other - more reasonable, experienced and intelligent people - will see the green shoots of recovery here. (Why did I use the word 'recovery'? Oops, Freudian slip I guess. There has been no downturn, how can we recover from something that hasn't happened?)

I'm going to shut up now. Just remember. House prices only ever go up. Our business depends on it and so does yours. And we will take whatever action is necessary to interpret the figures in a positive light.

Edited by Lets' get it right

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Fionallulu atoodledodo McEarley said:

"On the one hand things are looking good, on the other hand, perhaps, slightly not so good. While there are some encouraging signs there are other, less important and tending towards the miniscule, signs that could be interpreted - if you were of a particularly gloomy and pessimistic nature - as not quite so encouraging as the other much more encouraging signs.

Given the standards of the times, by and large, to put it in a nutshell - it's not easy to look for a definitive indication from these latest figures. Although some people might foolishly interpret them as indicating a (may God strike me dead for saying it) downward move in house prices, other - more reasonable, experienced and intelligent people - will see the green shoots of recovery here. (Why did I use the word 'recovery'? Oops, Freudian slip I guess. There has been no downturn, how can we recover from something that hasn't happened?)

I'm going to shut up now. Just remember. House prices only ever go up. Our business depends on it and so does yours. And we will take whatever action is necessary to interpret the figures in a positive light.

About sums it up, only the Archbishop of Canterbury could say it more clearly.

As the old WW2 posters used to say: Loose talk costs (commissions) lives.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
About sums it up, only the Archbishop of Canterbury could say it more clearly.

I thought I had made it as clear as mud.

Kind regards

Fionnallulululu

p.s. I am recommending to the Prime Minister that Sharia Law be introduced at once to deal with anyone who deliberately misinterprets housing market figures in an attempt to talk the market down. I am not sure what the exact punishment will be but 40 lashes outside a Nationwide branch is my favoured option at the moment.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bumpity Bump.

Been looking at last month's figures. January was actually a 0.88% drop and adjusted to be a smaller one, as was Halifax.

February is the first month that NWide actually adjust downwards. Feb to July get adjusted down and September to January get adjusted up.

So...

Will this be the first February to be adjusted up? :D

Here are the unadjusted figures from last year:

Feb '07 £174,706

Mar £177,083

Apr £180,314

May £181,584

Jun £184,070

Jul £ 184,270

Aug £183,898

Sep £184,723

Oct £186,044

Nov £184,099

Dec £182,080

Jan £180,473

So to get YoY -ve is a bit unlikely, would require a >3% drop unadjusted.

But some drops in Feb and March could see YoY -ve next month.

Fingers crossed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Fionallulu atoodledodo McEarley said:

"On the one hand things are looking good, on the other hand, perhaps, slightly not so good. While there are some encouraging signs there are other, less important and tending towards the miniscule, signs that could be interpreted - if you were of a particularly gloomy and pessimistic nature - as not quite so encouraging as the other much more encouraging signs.

Given the standards of the times, by and large, to put it in a nutshell - it's not easy to look for a definitive indication from these latest figures. Although some people might foolishly interpret them as indicating a (may God strike me dead for saying it) downward move in house prices, other - more reasonable, experienced and intelligent people - will see the green shoots of recovery here. (Why did I use the word 'recovery'? Oops, Freudian slip I guess. There has been no downturn, how can we recover from something that hasn't happened?)

I'm going to shut up now. Just remember. House prices only ever go up. Our business depends on it and so does yours. And we will take whatever action is necessary to interpret the figures in a positive light.

:lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
RB, a tenner says that Nationwide will be reporting YoY falls of more than 5% within 12 months.

I would say that October gives us a good chance of that.

95% of the 186044 is 176741, and jan was pretty much 2/3 of the way there. Of course there could be a recovery, but I don't think the problems will have gone away by then. Not if the peloton thread is anything to go by.

Edited by bobthe~

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 297 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.