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Willy Weasel

Unbelievable New Homes Figures

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From the BEEB (my emphasis):

US new home sales at 13-year low

The US housing market is in a major slump

Sales of new US homes fell 2.8% in January to the lowest rate in almost 13 years, official figures have shown.

The Commerce Department said sales fell to an annual pace of just 588,000 last month, indicating that the housing market slump is continuing.

This was a decline from an annual pace of 605,000 in December, and the third monthly fall in succession.

The Commerce Department added that the average price of a new home fell 15.1% in January to $216,000 (£109,000).

Its latest snapshot of the US housing market was worse than market expectations.

'No recovery signs'

"New home sales is another area where you have continuing news coming out that is not very positive, yet the stocks seem to be shrugging that off," said Richard Sparks, senior equities analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

"The number looks like it came in a little bit below what was expected, and it was kind of in the ballpark.

"It shows the housing market is not yet showing signs of recovery."

The Commerce Department reported last month that sales of new homes in 2007 fell at a record annual pace, dropping 26.4% compared with 2006.

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I don't know about these figures specifically, but they tend to annualise monthly and quarterly figures in the US. (Still 'full crash speed' if it is an annualised figure, mind.)

Yep, these figures are Jan 08 over Jan 07, so annual.

Also, new homes - so rather like 'new build'.

The Case Shiller all homes figure was 9.1% YoY for December - 10.5% from peak so far.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=69457

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=aX47cjhUn1SY

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=aw61M2mwbf48

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From the BEEB (my emphasis):

US new home sales at 13-year low

The US housing market is in a major slump

Sales of new US homes fell 2.8% in January to the lowest rate in almost 13 years, official figures have shown.

The Commerce Department said sales fell to an annual pace of just 588,000 last month, indicating that the housing market slump is continuing.

This was a decline from an annual pace of 605,000 in December, and the third monthly fall in succession.

The Commerce Department added that the average price of a new home fell 15.1% in January to $216,000 (£109,000).

Its latest snapshot of the US housing market was worse than market expectations.

'No recovery signs'

"New home sales is another area where you have continuing news coming out that is not very positive, yet the stocks seem to be shrugging that off," said Richard Sparks, senior equities analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

"The number looks like it came in a little bit below what was expected, and it was kind of in the ballpark.

"It shows the housing market is not yet showing signs of recovery."

The Commerce Department reported last month that sales of new homes in 2007 fell at a record annual pace, dropping 26.4% compared with 2006.

Hardly surprising when you consider that US prices are up around 120% in the last decade with some areas up by as much as 200%. Good thing Gordon has kept our HPI at sensible levels so we will not suffer the same fate of a collapsing market. Hang on................ :o

I predict we will drop 50-60% by the time its all over. Maybe 70% in the case of BTL type properties.

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Here's Econbrowser's take on the numbers:

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2008/0..._prices_fa.html

I particularly like this section:

The reason to be concerned about this is that the farther house prices fall, the greater the number of homeowners who move into the category of negative net equity, that is, owe more on their mortgage than the home is worth. And the farther into the red a household becomes, the greater the incentive and propensity for the homeowner to default on the loan. More defaults mean more losses and greater risk of insolvency for large financial institutions.

And if you think the economy can continue to hum along without those institutions continuing to extend credit, well, we may get some interesting additional data relevant for your hypothesis in a rather short while.

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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