redgenieuk Posted February 27, 2008 Share Posted February 27, 2008 So then, come on guys where the LR stats going this month? You forecasts for the YoY will also be appreciated! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paddles Posted February 27, 2008 Share Posted February 27, 2008 Down 0.5% We're still at the top of the rollercoaster defying gravity. April is when we all spill our popcorn buckets.... WHOOOOOOOSH! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted February 27, 2008 Share Posted February 27, 2008 Will finally start to see the time-lag effect unwind and get this index in line with the others.This one will reflect deals struck around October ,crunch plus two months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cartimandua51 Posted February 27, 2008 Share Posted February 27, 2008 Will finally start to see the time-lag effect unwind and get this index in line with the others.This one will reflect deals struck around October ,crunch plus two months. Not entirely sure about that; London was still up high then, and the sheer volume of London transaction tends to skew things. More likely to show trends in the regions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paddles Posted February 27, 2008 Share Posted February 27, 2008 Not entirely sure about that; London was still up high then, and the sheer volume of London transaction tends to skew things. More likely to show trends in the regions. Agree. Stand easy until April, HPC troops. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babesagainstmachines Posted February 27, 2008 Share Posted February 27, 2008 Who voted for 1% rise Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Conveyancer Posted February 27, 2008 Share Posted February 27, 2008 I say unchanged, for this month at least. March figures will be interesting though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted February 27, 2008 Share Posted February 27, 2008 I voted up .5% because transactions are dropping and fewer cheap houses are selling leaving the rich to dabble for awhile longer before the whole market tumbles down. And don't forget the LR lags by quite a few months and includes houses that have been improved before re-sale. The BBC version of the LR shows marked falls in many regions, including my own which is down 4.8% in the final Q of 2007. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...ml/county98.stm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redgenieuk Posted February 27, 2008 Author Share Posted February 27, 2008 I voted up .5% because transactions are dropping and fewer cheap houses are selling leaving the rich to dabble for awhile longer before the whole market tumbles down. And don't forget the LR lags by quite a few months and includes houses that have been improved before re-sale. The BBC version of the LR shows marked falls in many regions, including my own which is down 4.8% in the final Q of 2007. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...ml/county98.stm The fact that property is improving is always a tricky one. For example, I was looking at this house this morning on rightmove while on the phone to a local EA about it. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-149...=1&tr_t=buy Sold back in 2001 for about 60K and they want 150K. Apparently when it sold in 2001 it was just a shell. Now don't get me wrong, it needs a few changes, but generally OK I thought. Apparently she will take offers at about 150K. So how do you know how much of this was improvement was "real" and how much is just HPI, AKA fiction. The answer is you don't and there is no way of finding out. The best I have done is see that the next door place sold for 80K in the same year, assuming it was in good condition that leave HPI of 70K, or about 85% in 5 years. It does look quite spacious though, but I am sure there are much better deals to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flat Bear Posted February 27, 2008 Share Posted February 27, 2008 (edited) Will finally start to see the time-lag effect unwind and get this index in line with the others.This one will reflect deals struck around October ,crunch plus two months. Yes expect a figure of -.3% to -.6% YOY should show a sizable fall Edited to add Just noticed this is the first time that I think rates will actually be lower than the average prediction! Prices have actually been falling for over a few months now. This is a fact with even the VIs admitting the obvious. Edited February 27, 2008 by Flat Bear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Little Professor Posted February 27, 2008 Share Posted February 27, 2008 I still think it will be a positive figure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peahead Posted February 27, 2008 Share Posted February 27, 2008 I'm expecting the unexpected... The most interesting stat will be the volume... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hostman Posted February 27, 2008 Share Posted February 27, 2008 I'll take a punt on Down 0.75%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yoss Posted February 27, 2008 Share Posted February 27, 2008 Up 0.5 coz they will be fudged just like the rest of the figures (However that does included carpets/curtains/White Goods/2x Leather DFS sofa's, gaurenteed rent for 2 years, 2x(7 day) holidays for 2, a deposit on a ford fous and your deposit/stamp duty paid) Take that out then it would be down 1% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fairies Wear Boots Posted February 27, 2008 Share Posted February 27, 2008 I'll be having a beer if it goes down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redgenieuk Posted February 27, 2008 Author Share Posted February 27, 2008 I'll be having a beer if it goes down. One per 0.1%? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conquistador Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 The Jan '08 figures are actually due out at 11:00, not 08:00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cartimandua51 Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 The Jan '08 figures are actually due out at 11:00, not 08:00. Thanks - I've just been trying to find them! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redgenieuk Posted February 28, 2008 Author Share Posted February 28, 2008 The Jan '08 figures are actually due out at 11:00, not 08:00. ops! Sorry guys!! I have been trying to find them before I came back to this thread! lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paddles Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 Should be here once they're up - http://www.landreg.gov.uk/assets/library/d...ts/hpir0208.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 YOY should show a sizable fall Nope, sorry. LR figures will include sales reported to them in Nov, Dec and Jan. These will be based on sales agreed in June to Nov. Whilst there may be a small MoM fall, YoY will remain a high positive figure. Remember kids, LR stands for Lagging Record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crown Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 Broadly unchanged because They will be seasonally adjusted up They are based on sales agreed around june - august The Nationwide data tomorrow is the one to watch and Halifax next week. Nationwide states the average house price which is not seasonally adjusted and Halifax gives adjusted and una djusted figures Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PropertyAnalyser Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 (edited) Current index 226.2 Average price £186,045 Monthly change 0.9% Annual change 6.4% edit to add: http://www.landreg.gov.uk/assets/library/d...ents/181181.pdf Edited February 28, 2008 by Stuart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griptool Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 Plus 0.9% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobthe~ Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 (edited) Plus 0.9% Cue the Daily Express. Still, it will be a "Blow to homeowners expecting further rate cuts". Edit: Changed Queue to Cue, idiot. Edited February 28, 2008 by bobthe~ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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